Since Trump was elected President of the United States, the narrative around cryptocurrencies has changed. Many say that Trump's inauguration ushered in the era of the "crypto gold standard," and cryptocurrencies may no longer be heavily regulated by the SEC as "securities." The US stock market has also seen an extreme "Trump trade" market sentiment, with Tesla and the Trump Media Group seeing huge gains.

BTC has also been synchronized with the US stock market, and its performance has been even better. Within a certain time frame, it has broken out of the prolonged sideways trend and embarked on a strong upward trend, consecutively breaking through the $80,000 and $90,000 thresholds, with hardly any "pullbacks" in between. Interestingly, many large short-sellers in the market have been liquidated, with $80 million and $20 million short positions being witnessed in the futures market.

However, the feast cannot last forever. As the "Trump trade" sentiment has cooled, the US stock market has seen a significant correction, with the Nasdaq index closing in the red for five consecutive trading days. Initially, BTC was still able to rise independently of the US stocks, but on November 14th and 15th, it also saw a slight pullback. However, it appears to have found support at the 4-hour EMA20 and is now rebounding, currently still above $90,000.

Most Altcoins saw very substantial gains of 20-30% after Trump's election, but for those who had previously experienced "halving" or "knee-cutting" situations, the road to recouping their losses is long and arduous. Now that BTC has opened up upside space, do Altcoins still have a chance? Is it still suitable to continue longing BTC here? Let's see what the traders in the market think.

Technical Analysis Camp

@biupa

OTHERS.D has been in an overall downtrend channel for the past 49 days, while DXY has been in an uptrend channel. The two exhibit a strong negative correlation, explaining why Altcoins have only been riding BTC's coattails in the upswing, but have seen deeper corrections. We have been too focused on the internal data of the crypto market, neglecting the impact of macroeconomic factors. A reasonable forecast is that a reversal in DXY is needed to bring about a rebound in OTHERS.D.

As for BTC, the market saw a negative premium on Coinbase for the first time at 5 am on the 15th (the last hour of the US market close), but this did not persist in the following hours, perhaps an isolated incident, but worth noting. As the US spot buying power weakens, BTC's upside space is limited in the short term. I personally think the probability of reaching $100,000 by the end of the year is not high.

@Cryptos_Laowai

@Cryptos_Laowai believes that the real bull market will not begin until after Trump is officially elected President of the United States and implements truly favorable measures for cryptocurrencies, which will not be until 2025. This is likely just a temporary top of a small bull market, and there will probably not be a widespread Altcoin season explosion. After breaking the uptrend line of this rally, he believes this is a standard form of secondary buying frenzy, and expects a significant decline, filling the CME gap next week, with a target short position at $76,000.

@CryptoPainter_X

Currently, there are four possible trajectories for BTC. The quantitative strategy still holds a long position at $69,000. Structurally, it is still a bull market, but the subsequent trend may have the following four possibilities:

1. Price remains above $90,000 (maintain an upward oscillating trend);

2. Price remains below $90,000 (confirm a range-bound market);

3. Price breaks below $85,000, resulting in a bottom reversal (maintain range-bound + long opportunities);

4. If the price confirms a break below $85,000 and fails to recover, consider the potential for an extreme correction to fill the CME gap;

If BTC performs even weaker than the fourth scenario, the possibility of a cyclical bull market ending should be considered.

@roger73005305

Let's continue to analyze the overall market and Altcoin trends.
You will see the amazing phenomenon of BTC dropping while Altcoins rise later.
First, let's analyze the market from December 2021 to February 2022, which is the period from now until the Lunar New Year in February.
At the end of December 2021, the overall market began to oscillate and adjust, not ending until February. Normally, when the overall market is oscillating or declining, Altcoins should plummet, but that is not the case. This is because BTC has already risen a lot, and the Altcoin sentiment is just starting to pick up. BTC's market dominance reached its peak and then began to decline, and the Altcoin season began. So at this time, we see BNB, SOL and other quality Altcoins start to rise slowly, and it is not very wise to take profits or reduce positions at this time, because they have not really risen yet, so there is no talk of taking profits or reducing positions.

So my view is to continue to hold quality Altcoins that have not yet risen, and for those that have already risen several times or even dozens of times, it is at least necessary to get your principal back. For the steady ones, you can sell them all and switch to the ones that have not risen.

Data Analysis Camp:

@Maoshu_CN

As of this week, the market sentiment after Trump's victory has gone through 2 weeks. Through market data, we can clearly see that the sentiment is gradually weakening. Next week, whether the market can continue to extend the Trump victory expectations and the independent market performance, this is what we need to focus on.

Of course, in the future, if the overall expectations are good, funds will also be fully deposited into the market for settlement, which undoubtedly provides a guarantee for the downside of the market price, especially for BTC. If there is a significant short-term negative news that causes BTC to plummet, I believe it may trigger a lot of funds to buy the dips.

If next week does not continue the short-term Trump victory expectations, then we need to prepare for a correction, referring to the on-screen analysis.

Compared to Thursday's data, the overall market cap has decreased, with BTC and ETH market caps decreasing the most, while Altcoin market cap increasing and its proportion increasing. Based on the proportion, the market risk appetite is gradually improving, but the current plight of Altcoins is still overly dependent on the meme sector.

Trading volume has weakened overall, with activity declining as the weekend approaches. However, if we compare it to the Saturday market data of this year, the current trading volume activity is still at a peak period, whether it is the overall trading volume of BTC, ETH, and Altcoins, or the capital activity of USDT/USDC.

Funds have continued to flow into the market in a big way, with the current market stock of funds reaching $186 billion, a significant increase compared to Thursday.

@Murphychen888

According to the indicators:
1. The red line is currently approaching the short-term high point, and if it goes up further, it will produce a "deviation". Based on past experience, the greater the deviation, the greater the pullback.
2. At the same time, it is observed that there may be a small pullback in the next 10 days. The current red line is 2.52, and the pullback range is around 2.35, corresponding to the current BTC price of around $82,000 (this estimated price will rise over time).
3. After this period, the upward trend will resume around mid-December, but whether it can significantly exceed the previous value is still unknown based on the current data.
Personally, since my holding cost is relatively low, I will ignore this short-term fluctuation. If the holding cost is relatively high, you need to make your own trading plan.

Options market data:

Thomas Erdösi, head of CF Benchmarks products, said that market data shows traders appear to be snapping up Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price. The 30-day constant maturity 25 delta skew has now breached the 5 vol threshold, approaching the highest level since the start of the year, indicating much greater demand for upside exposure.

In addition, the demand for call options with a strike price above $100,000 is also surging, which can be clearly seen from the rise in the implied volatility of these options.

Macro Analysis:

@Maoshu_CN

The inflation data is basically neutral, neither bullish nor bearish, completely in line with market expectations. Inflation is still under control overall, but the short-term rebound in inflation will also raise market concerns about future inflation.

In terms of US stocks, the trend is relatively cautious, especially the S&P 500 forming an effective turnover at the 6,000-point level. This kind of action is actually a good thing for the US stock market.

As for Crypto and BTC, the current sentiment is overly optimistic. As long as it is not bad news, it is good news. This is the current state of Crypto enthusiasm.

The inflation data has once again sparked market discussions about rate cuts in December. Currently, the CME rate shows an 82.5% high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.

And in terms of the current US economic sentiment, the CPI data rebounded but did not break expectations, which is in line with the expectations in Powell's speech last week. So the short-term CPI data will not affect the Fed's decision-making changes. At the same time, the next US president, Trump, is also an advocate of aggressive rate cuts, which may indirectly affect the Fed's next move.

Moreover, the market has gradually accepted the expectation that future inflation may rise, so the short-term inflationary pressure is no longer a significant negative sentiment.

In Powell's last speech, he mentioned a key point, which is that the Fed is looking for the right neutral interest rate and will adjust its policies around that rate. The current neutral interest rate may be higher than market expectations, and the neutral interest rate may be the next important topic for the Fed.

@Phyrex_Ni

Based on the current data, the FOMO sentiment of US investors is likely to have cooled down. For now, it can be seen that it is fluctuating between $87,000 and $91,000. Whether this position can form a new bottom remains to be seen, but historically, there has never been a gap in BTC prices. However, the URPD data clearly shows that the holding volume at $77,000, $78,000 and $82,500 is almost invisible, which is something that has been imagined before, but was later "filled".

The ETF data from last week also shows that both BTC and ETH have seen a significant decline in buying power, and BTC even had a large sell-off yesterday. This suggests that the FOMO sentiment during the election period may have ended, and it should be time to rebuild the bottom.

I still want to emphasize that this is not me being bearish, but just being prepared for a correction.

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