SignalPlus Macro Analysis: ETH ETF fund inflows rebound, which may lead to a rebound in more Altcoin

Last week was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, and the market trading volume was light, maintaining a sideways pattern overall. The US stock market is about to make history again, with 2024 set to be one of the best performing years on record, and 5 out of the past 6 years having double-digit returns. The market breadth remains supportive, with the 52-week stock new high-new low differential still looking healthy, the uptrend intact, the volatility index (VIX) trending downward, and after Trump announced that Scott Bessent would be appointed as Treasury Secretary, the US bond market has calmed down, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 35 basis points from its October high. In addition to his "pro-crypto" stance, Bessent is also a fiscal hawk and a supporter of an independent Federal Reserve. His proposed 3-3-3 plan (reducing the fiscal deficit to 3% of GDP, raising real GDP growth to 3%, and increasing energy production by 3 million barrels per day) has brought some relief to the US fixed income market, with the yield curve premium remaining stable since his nomination. While his core views are still questionable, journalists researching his early speeches found that due to the central bank's continued accumulation, he is "bullish long-term" on gold, which could have spillover effects on Bitcoin, especially in the recent discussions about strategic reserve portfolios. At least, the next 4 years will undoubtedly be very interesting. Traders will return to a busy week, welcoming the release of the year's final non-farm payroll data. Although concerns about a resurgence in inflation have just emerged, the market still expects a 65% chance of rate cuts, but given the strong economic conditions, the long-term rate cut expectations for 2025-2027 have already been significantly reduced. In terms of employment data, the market expects overall employment to rebound to around +160,000, with the unemployment rate remaining around 4.3%. Given the recent softness in PMI surveys and high-frequency employment data, the final data could come in below expectations, but unless there is an extremely surprising result, the risk sentiment is likely to remain positive. The optimistic sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains widespread, but the focus this week is on Ripple (XRP), which has surged an astonishing 73% on expectations that the government will drop its long-running lawsuit, helping XRP surpass USDT to become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. As expected, whale addresses have been actively buying (and are now selling) XRP over the past month. The current rally is mainly concentrated in the major coins (excluding ETH), with BTC leading the way, while altcoins are still struggling to return to their January highs. Although the recent successes of L2 and protocol-transforming blockchains (such as Hyperliquid) have dominated the attention of the cryptocurrency market, we have seen some signs of life in Ethereum through inflows into ETH ETFs, with over $330 million flowing in last Friday. Will we see more secondary mainstream coins driven to rebound before the end of the year? In any case, the fundamental indicators of cryptocurrencies remain optimistic, with the market capitalization of stablecoins finally surpassing the peak of the Terra-Luna era. Stablecoins are usually the first stop for most fiat currency users entering the cryptocurrency market, and the higher market capitalization (driven by quantity as the price is fixed) indicates greater mainstream participation. As investors put more new money into the market, will the new year see faster growth? Let's hope so!