In the past week, BTC saw an outflow of $457 million, the first major outflow since early September. The persistent selling pressure has impacted the upward trend of BTC, causing it to enter a short-term consolidation phase. Last week, BTC price reached a low of $90,792 and a high of $97,208, with a maximum weekly volatility of 7.43%. Currently, BTC is fluctuating around $95,000. The price trend of ETH has generally been consistent with that of BTC, breaking through the $3,500 resistance on the 27th and rising to a high of $3,760 before a slight pullback, currently stabilizing around $3,600 (the above data is from Binance spot, 6:00 PM on December 3).
Last week, US stocks saw the most significant recent gains. On November 29, a shortened trading session, the S&P 500 soared 5.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.54%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.21%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new all-time highs, marking a perfect end to November. On December 2, the opening was relatively calm, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all experiencing slight declines.
Against this backdrop, the current SEC Chairman Gensler has also officially stepped down, and Donald Trump's nomination for the SEC Chairman may be announced tomorrow, with former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, who is crypto-friendly, being the top candidate.
Affected by the US government's BTC transfers, Altcoin activities, and geopolitics, although the pace of BTC reaching the $100,000 target is slowing down, the whales' increased holdings and expectations of loose policies are still stimulating a significant short-term price surge in the crypto market. In the context of the surging meme coin sentiment, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management while capturing market opportunities.
Market Highlights
Driven by the launch of US ETFs, XRP saw an inflow of $95 million, a rise of about 69%
The inflow of XRP reached $95 million, the largest ever, which may be due to the hype around the potential launch of US ETFs. According to data from the on-chain analysis company Santiment, XRP whales have been actively accumulating, and the price of XRP has shown a significant bullish trend recently. The total number of XRP holders has increased by 119,820, with a price increase of about 69%, and the number of non-zero XRP addresses has also broken through the 5.5 million mark for the first time in XRP's history. In addition to the whales' increased holdings, the optimistic attitude towards the upcoming cryptocurrency legislation in the US has also attracted a lot of institutional and retail investors, and XRP is currently at $2.67 (real-time data as of 5:00 PM on December 3), exceeding the normal resistance level and reaching an extreme risk level.
Currently, Solana and XRP are competing to become the next cryptocurrency to receive ETF approval, and with the change of SEC Chairman and Trump's crypto-friendly policies, the path to launching cryptocurrency ETFs may become easier.
MicroStrategy Purchases Another 15,400 BTC, Worth Approximately $1.5 Billion
MicroStrategy, the publicly-traded company with the largest BTC holdings globally, has additionally purchased 15,400 BTC (valued at $1.5 billion) between November 25 and December 1, marking the company's fourth consecutive week of BTC purchases. MicroStrategy's total BTC holdings now stand at 402,100 BTC.
Previously, the company had sold over 3.7 million shares of MicroStrategy stock and plans to continue its stock sale strategy. As of December 1, MicroStrategy still has approximately $11.3 billion worth of stock available for sale. Over the next three years, the company plans to raise a total of $42 billion through the sale of stocks and fixed-income securities, a significant portion of which will be used for further BTC acquisitions.
The Probability of a 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut by the Fed in December Has Risen Significantly
According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in December is 25.5%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 74.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January 2023 is 20.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 65.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 14.3%.
On December 2, New York Fed President Williams publicly stated at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce that as inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Fed may further lower its interest rate target to support the sustainable return of inflation to the 2% goal.
The US Government Transfers Approximately 19,800 BTC from Tagged Addresses
According to Arkham data, of the 19,800 BTC transferred from US government-tagged addresses, 10,000 BTC (approximately $968 million) were transferred to Coinbase after the funds flowed into new wallets. The US government currently holds 188,309 BTC, worth approximately $18.2 billion.
This move has attracted significant market attention, with BTC price briefly dropping nearly 3% to $94,500, but the market quickly recovered. On-chain data shows that these over 10,000 BTC have not actually entered the market, and it is unclear whether this is a genuine sale or a strategic adjustment.
Investment Recommendations
Based on recent market performance and data, the current crypto market is exhibiting high volatility. Driven by the expectations of Fed rate cuts and the optimistic sentiment towards US cryptocurrency legislation, Altcoins like XRP have seen significant inflows and price increases, but there are certain short-term risks. Amidst the uncertain regulatory environment and the influence of market FOMO sentiment, investors need to be cautious about the violent short-term market fluctuations, closely monitor changes in market sentiment, and adopt reasonable risk management strategies. Adjust the investment portfolio in a timely manner and avoid excessive risk exposure.
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