Master Analyst Discusses Hot Topics:
Took off yesterday, plummeted today. The violent fluctuations of BTC are like an allergic reaction in the market. After BTC broke through 100,000, the market naturally welcomed a large number of liquidations and cash-outs. Naturally, many long positions chose to lock in profits above 100,000, and the lack of buyers led to a 10,000-point pullback.
This kind of volatility is actually understandable. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears is always like this, and needle insertions in a bull market are commonplace. Prices will continue to be baptized by this short-term volatility, and the market is likely to continue until the first quarter of next year.
After this BTC pullback, the funding rate has dropped from 0.1% to 0.01%, and the borrowing rate has also dropped from an annualized 80% to 30%. These changes may seem like market adjustments, but it is precisely these corrections that have released the risks of BTC, and the opportunity for it to continue to hit new highs has actually increased.
So the market's rapid rise and fall is actually putting on a "Slaying the Dragon" show for you: rapid rise followed by a sharp fall, and a sharp fall followed by a rapid rise. This is the norm of capital games, not a sign of a trend reversal.
Each major drop is to clear out those heavily leveraged long positions and control positions. Friends who maintain discipline, remember to stay defensive and don't get flustered by a single crash.
As for tonight's non-farm payroll data, the market was like it was stabbed with a few needles last night, with volatility that caught people off guard. But I don't think the non-farm data tonight is likely to keep stabbing. The main force may have to restrain their greed a bit, after all, the basic indicators at the medium and small levels still need time to recover.
And from the current situation, the recovery is progressing quite well. So tonight, the non-farm data is unlikely to trigger a new round of plunges, but rather will bring some upward rebounds. You can think about a point: if the non-farm data is bad news, it means the Fed may not cut interest rates in December, which will inevitably lead to a resurgence of market risk, and may even trigger a large-scale short.
But now the probability of this scenario is extremely low, we can't use the "cabbage" mentality to view the market's volatility: after a big drop, there will always be a group of people start chasing shorts, thinking the earlier the short position the more profitable, but the result is, the short position is also trapped, everything is self-evident......
Therefore, tonight under the influence of the US stock market and non-farm data, the best strategy is to long on dips, simple and clear. The BTC market, although currently in a unilateral upward trend, short-term volatility is the norm.
The next risk time points to watch out for are: the Fed's interest rate meeting on December 18-19, and a 66% probability of a rate hike in Japan in December. If there is a rate hike, the market will definitely have volatility, and after the volatility, the bad news will be digested and the good news will be quickly replenished, and there may be some needle-stabbing actions in the short term, don't be swayed by emotions.
Speaking of this, we need to understand one point, that Japan's rate hike in December, although it looks like a negative news, is also its last rate hike, so this bad news will soon turn into good news.
And the US stock market and the crypto market are currently in a bull market cycle, the impact of such adjustments is usually digested by the market within 1-2 weeks. Therefore, around the 20th of this month, it might be a good idea to look at the opportunity to buy the dips.
After the end of next week, short-term risks will need to be more vigilant, and the discipline of taking profits and cutting losses will need to be stricter. But from a medium and long-term perspective, this short-term volatility will not shake the direction of the overall trend, and the bull market pattern will still maintain a steady upward trend.
Also, don't forget the US November core PPI data on Thursday night. If it rises from Monday to Tuesday, there is a good chance that there will be a needle-stabbing operation on Thursday night that can be used to create a buying opportunity. As long as the low long position is well controlled, this kind of short-term volatility is actually a good opportunity to enter.
Master Analyst Looks at the Trend:
Yesterday, BTC failed to break through the high, forming a Double Top pattern and then plummeting. But the buying momentum in the market has not diminished, and the overall sentiment is still optimistic.
Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 98,600
Second Resistance: 100,000
Support Levels:
First Support: 96,700
Second Support: 94,800
Suggestion for Today:
Currently, it is a consolidation after the decline, not a sideways trend, but a long lower shadow, indicating that the buying momentum still exists, so you can pay attention to the price movement in the 96K-98K range. It is also in a V-shaped rebound, so BTC needs to gradually break through the 98K-100K resistance again, and it must be accompanied by relatively large trading volume.
12.6 Master Analyst Swing Trade Preset:
Long Entry: 96,200-96,700 area, light position. If it pulls back to 95,300-94,800 area, go long directly. Target: 98,600-99,650
Short Entry: 99,650-100,200-100,300 area, can try light short position. Target: 98,600-96,700
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