Chainfeeds Summary:
With the end of the election and the inauguration of Trump as well as the Republican's control of the three branches of government, 2024 is no longer in doubt. So, will the trend of cryptocurrencies from 2025 to 2026 be smooth sailing? Crypto KOL Phyrex analyzes the situation from the political, legislative, macroeconomic, and trend perspectives.
Source:
https://x.com/Phyrex_Ni/status/1865655353666617644
Author:
Phyrex
Viewpoint:
Phyrex: Based on the current known trends, the fourth quarter of 2024 will have both opportunities and risks. Although there may be a trough during the Christmas season, by the first quarter of 2025, there will certainly be a new wave of positive expectations with Trump's inauguration on January 20th. A week later, on January 29th, there will be the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and whether they will cut rates again will affect investors' risk appetite, but since it is still in the transition of power, the sentiment may cover the negative impact of not cutting rates. By February, the financial reports of technology stocks and the crypto industry will gradually be released. The fourth quarter of 2024 was definitely excellent for the crypto industry, so exchanges, mining farms, and BTC reserve institutions will most likely see explosive growth. Therefore, the financial reports in February will boost the sentiment in the industry and bring the possibility of a new wave of FOMO. After entering March, the impact of the election will gradually subside. If there is no new progress in policies and legislation, then apart from BTC, ETH, and a few Tokens that may apply for spot ETFs, most Altcoins will likely gradually lose capital support, as their liquidity is not as good. Even for BTC and ETH, they still need to see the face of the capital brought by the spot ETF. More capital will return to the USD base, and the outflow of capital may gradually decrease, which may also gradually reduce the support for Altcoins. March will also see the possibility of the second Federal Reserve interest rate meeting and the yen rate hike. If no positive news is generated, the blow to sentiment may cause the risk market to enter a correction. In the second quarter, as interest rates remain high, the US dollar may not easily fall back from its highs, and the risk market, after losing the FOMO sentiment, will focus more on the "election" sector, that is, the targets that can benefit from the new administration, while the beneficiaries may enter a relatively difficult period, which will last until the financial reporting period in May. Since the first quarter's financial reports will not be too bad, there may be a small climax in May. But if the overall sentiment is not good, there is still the possibility of gradually falling into a trough in liquidity, and the possibility of an economic recession may be raised again. Moving into the third quarter, there may be expectations of a trading downturn, but if the US economy remains strong and the unemployment rate does not rise significantly, this may not become the mainstream, and BTC and ETH still have good prospects. If any cryptocurrency can apply for an ETF by this time, it is also worth watching. By the beginning of the fourth quarter, the polarization of cryptocurrencies may become more severe, especially those that have passed the spot ETF can enjoy the support of off-chain USD. By the fourth quarter of 2025, more states in the US may announce the inclusion of BTC in the investment scope of pension funds, and RWA may gradually bear fruit on ETH, with SAB121 and FIT21 most likely already passed. For BTC, BTCFi will be an indispensable part, and for ETH, the staking of ETF will most likely also be approved, which will make the purchasing power and trading volume of ETH led by ETF for the first time, surpassing exchanges and on-chain. But for other cryptocurrencies, liquidity is still a problem that must be faced. The possibility of Altcoins starting to retreat significantly and entering the next cycle cannot be ruled out.
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