Author: Delphi Digital
Compiled by: Azuma, Odaily
Editor's Note: On December 11, the well-known research institution Delphi Digital released a market outlook report for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025. This article is the first part of the report, mainly outlining Delphi Digital's analysis of Bitcoin's upward trend and upside potential compared to 2015.
Delphi Digital mentioned that if historical trends repeat, Bitcoin in this cycle will rise to around $175,000, and may even surge to $190,000 - $200,000 in the short term.
The following is the original content of Delphi Digital, compiled by Odaily.
At the end of 2022, we outlined the reasons why the bear market had bottomed out.
15 months ago, we began to express our confidence in the upcoming bull market cycle more directly.
In last year's annual report, we also predicted that BTC would break new highs in Q4 2024.
Although from a technical perspective, BTC had already set a new high in late March this year due to the hype around ETFs, the recent breakout is more in line with our original expectations.
When we released last year's annual report, there were only a little over 3 months left until the next Bitcoin halving. From historical data, we observed that BTC often rises a few weeks before the halving, and then consolidates after the halving, laying the foundation for the subsequent larger rally.
Fast-forwarding to today, BTC's actual performance has basically followed this path.
Over the past period, BTC's surge has put the market in a very favorable position to move towards a larger space.
We also reiterated our view that Bitcoin halvings are not the key catalysts for bull markets - they just happen to coincide with BTC's cyclical uptrend timing.
As shown in the following figure, this was the situation at the time.
The current situation is as follows.
BTC's performance is highly consistent with Delphi Digital's cyclical predictions, which is almost a miracle.
Readers who have been following Delphi Digital's research reports for a long time may know why this is the case - it's not a miracle at all.
The market is driven by momentum, which is vividly reflected in BTC and other cryptocurrencies.
Each of BTC's historical new highs has coincided with the "monthly RSI indicator breaking above 70". In previous bull markets, the market often only exhausted its momentum when this indicator broke above 90.
If this historical pattern repeats, BTC must rise to around $175,000 in this cycle to reach the corresponding RSI level (and potentially even $190,000-$200,000 if it starts to go parabolic). This prediction is based on the assumption that the current cycle's top will see a period of accelerated upside, similar to most previous cycles.
In terms of volatility, BTC's current volatility is far below the "1-2 standard deviations" volatility that typically signals a cyclical top.
In an industry that is developing so rapidly, it is difficult to see the forest for the trees. We all know that volatility is a double-edged sword, which is why the time horizon is important.
If you need more proof, here's an interesting fact. Even if you had bought BTC at the cyclical top in November 2021, if you had held on, its performance to date would still outperform all other major asset classes.
Bitcoin breaking new highs is not just an attractive headline, but the ultimate driver of "risk appetite" for the cryptocurrency market.
"Price is the ultimate driver of attention, capital flows, and on-chain activity".
In the previous cycle, it was not until Bitcoin price decisively broke through its previous high that retail investors flooded in. This trend can be seen from the surge in Google search volume and Bitcoin-related news coverage, as well as the growth in Coinbase's retail trading revenue. Investor confidence and risk appetite tend to rise when Bitcoin "takes off" and breaks new highs.
Price drives increased attention, which in turn accelerates FOMO and capital inflows.
The flow trends of BTC ETFs this year clearly demonstrate this trend.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) ranked third in inflows among all ETFs this year, with only the two largest S&P 500 ETFs exceeding it, whose combined assets under management are about 20 times that of IBIT (around $1.1 trillion).
Price is the ultimate driver, and compared to traditional asset classes, BTC has ranked first in asset price appreciation for two consecutive years.
BTC has not only set new highs against the US dollar, but also against the NDX (Nasdaq 100 index), which itself has risen nearly 30% this year.
BTC has also set new highs against the SPX (S&P 500 index), which is expected to have its best performance in the past three decades this year.
Compared to gold, BTC has also set new highs.
We have long said that one day, the stigma of BTC will be eliminated. One day, not investing in BTC will become the biggest risk facing investors and institutions. In our view, that day has arrived.
Mocking Bit is no longer a cool thing to do. This cycle will consolidate BTC's position as a macro asset, and it can no longer be ignored.
BTC's current market cap is around $2 trillion.
This is a very large number. If Bit were a publicly traded company, BTC would be the sixth most valuable asset in the world.
Not long ago, many people still thought that BTC at $100,000 was just a pipe dream. Now, social media timelines are full of such expectations.
At $91,150, BTC will flip Saudi Aramco;
At $109,650, BTC will flip Amazon;
At $107,280, BTC will flip Google;
At $156,700, BTC will flip Microsoft;
At $170,900, BTC will flip Apple;
At $179,680, BTC will flip Nvidia...
Bit is now large enough to warrant due attention, but it is not yet so large that it lacks sufficient room for growth.
At the time of writing:
BTC's market cap still only accounts for 11% of the total market cap of the MAG 7 (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META, TSLA);
BTC's market cap is still less than 3% of the total US stock market value and 1.5% of the global stock market value;
BTC's total market cap is still only 5% of the total outstanding US public debt, less than 0.7% of the global debt (public debt + private debt);
The funds held by US money market funds are 3 times the market cap of BTC;
BTC's market cap is still only equivalent to 15% of the total global foreign exchange reserve assets. Imagine if global central banks reallocated 5% of their gold reserves to BTC, this would bring over $150 billion in additional buying power, equivalent to 3 times the net inflow to IBIT this year;
Household net worth is at an all-time high (over $160 trillion) - over $40 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic peak - driven mainly by rising home prices and a booming stock market. This figure is 80 times the current market cap of Bit.
The key is that BTC and the crypto market still have a large and deep pool of capital to tap into. All of this will become potential demand when people are confident in the upward trajectory of the crypto market.
With the Fed and other central banks driving their national currencies down 5-7% per year, investors need to achieve a 10-15% annual return to offset the loss of real purchasing power.
This is why investors' attention is increasingly turning to high-growth sectors, as this is the best place to seek returns above the average.
We believe that as the accumulation of positive news continues to outweigh potential negatives, investors will be more willing to take on some risk in pursuit of higher returns.