Odaily星球日报讯 分析师 Megan Leonhardt 表示，尽管 11 月未能在抑制通胀方面取得进展，但联邦基金期货显示，美联储政策制定者将基准利率再降息 25 个基点的可能性几乎为 100%。降息的合理性可能取决于美联储官员希望将基准利率与当前经济状况保持一致，因为通胀已从 2022 年的峰值大幅回落，而且此前紧张的劳动力市场正在正常化。但如果下周的降息伴随着鲍威尔的前瞻性指引，暗示美联储将寻求在年初暂停降息，不要感到惊讶。美联储不仅要将通胀控制在最后阶段，而且未来一年的许多财政政策结果可能会改变通胀的走向。此外，劳动力市场确实存在一些疲软的地方，值得仔细观察。所有这些都给美联储在未来几个月带来了方向性挑战，政策制定者可能会避免以惊人的速度采取行动。（金十）

分析师：美联储或暗示将于2025年初暂停降息

Odaily Odaily analyst Megan Leonhardt said that despite the failure to make progress in curbing inflation in November, federal funds futures show that there is almost a 100% chance that Fed policymakers will cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points. The rationale for the rate cut may depend on the desire of Fed officials to align the benchmark interest rate with current economic conditions, as inflation has fallen sharply from its 2022 peak and the previously tight labor market is normalizing. But don&#39;t be surprised if next week&#39;s rate cut is accompanied by Powell&#39;s forward guidance, suggesting that the Fed will seek to pause rate cuts at the beginning of the year. Not only does the Fed have to keep inflation in the final stages, but many fiscal policy outcomes in the coming year may change the direction of inflation. In addition, there are indeed some weak spots in the labor market that deserve careful observation. All of this poses directional challenges to the Fed in the coming months, and policymakers may avoid acting at an alarming speed. (Jinshi)

Analyst: The Fed may hint that it will stop cutting interest rates in early 2025

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in December is 5.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 4.1%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 73.7%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 22.3%.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%.

Odaily reports that according to several Japanese media reports, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Sources familiar with the matter said that the Bank of Japan's policymakers believe that while the trends in the Japanese economy and prices are in line with expectations, they should closely monitor wage trends in Japan and the global economy. The above-mentioned sources said that decision-makers are therefore unlikely to raise interest rates at the meetings on Wednesday and Thursday next week, unless there is a risk of a significant yen depreciation, which would push up import prices. The last time the Bank of Japan's decision-makers voted to raise the target for the short-term policy interest rate to 0.25% was at a meeting in July. As the December meeting approaches, there is growing concern that with the US President-elect Trump's promise to raise tariffs, the profitability of Japanese companies, especially exporters, will deteriorate. Sources said that some Bank of Japan officials said it was time to raise interest rates, but most believe the central bank should not act hastily.

Japanese media: Bank of Japan may keep interest rates unchanged next week

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