The new week starts with BTC breaking its historical high in the early morning. Each new high always makes some people worry about a correction, but this concern is more psychological, as it is still FOMO time in Asia. The real concerns will come after the US stock market opens in the evening.
The current positive news is that MSTR has been included in the Nasdaq 100, and institutional funds continue to increase their positions, which undoubtedly injects more confidence into the market and paves the way for BTC to continue its upward trend! Hopefully, the ETF will perform well tonight, and BTC won't be dragged down. The sentiment is still very good.
The most important event this week is the FOMC meeting on the 19th. According to current market forecasts, there is a over 95% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which is positive for the market. The market is likely to take this opportunity to rally, and the previously strong Altcoins will regain attention. In the absence of new strong stimuli, the market is taking turns to hype up, and after AI, the strong Altcoins like Pepe, SOL, PUNT, and Doge may be hyped up again.
The key in the meeting will be Powell's speech, which may trigger market speculation on new emotions. Japan is unlikely to raise rates this month, so going forward, it's important to focus on your own spot cost, as Christmas is just around the corner!
Christmas is a risk, as the US stock market will be closed, and there may be no market makers for BTC, so if BTC drops, Altcoins may also suffer. Therefore, as I've been suggesting, position control, short-term holding, etc. to maximize profits, you may want to start reducing positions around December 20th.
Christmas won't affect the overall trend. After the New Year, with Trump's official inauguration and the new SEC chairman, the uptrend will definitely continue, as long as there are no negative data or news.
The Altcoin bull market has only just begun 20%:
Referencing the new high in BTC, most Altcoins are still in a dire state, failing to break through despite BTC's new highs. Only a few have started to gain momentum, such as XRP, ADA, TRX, XLM, and LINK, reaching new highs or approaching previous highs.
Most of the second-tier Altcoins listed on major exchanges are still hovering at bear market levels, which is precisely the opportunity. As long as the projects are still operating, more can be found, and there's a high probability that institutions have already intervened and gained control. When the time is right, they can be pumped 3-5 times in 7 days, or even 10 times in less than a month!
Altcoins can complete a bull market in 7 days that BTC took 2 years to achieve. For the second-tier Altcoins of major exchanges, in a true raging bull market, 99% of the decent targets will explode, with 3-5 times as the baseline, and a considerable portion even seeing 10 times or more gains.
Regardless of the narrative, as long as liquidity is abundant, even the oldest targets can have an explosive angle. Most targets may be lifeless for years, but their explosion may only last a week or two, with only a few like BTC showing a concrete bull market process like a bulldozer.
Because most people don't believe it and can't see the underlying logic of Altcoins, the Altcoin season must come, and the targets still in operation will inevitably explode.
Back to the market:
Although Ethereum has performed better than most Altcoins, the ETH/BTC exchange rate is still declining, having fallen below 0.038. However, last week saw a record $850 million inflow into Ethereum ETFs, indicating improved sentiment towards ETH from off-chain capital. Several institutions have also predicted that Ethereum will reach new highs by the end of the year, which I also think is quite possible, as long as the Ethereum Foundation doesn't cause any trouble.
SOL has not performed well this week, and the SOL/BTC exchange rate has also retreated. But BTC's long-term trend is truly strong. To be honest, SOL's performance this year has been eye-catching, with all kinds of memes, financing models, and even AI and DeFi narratives happening on the SOL chain. Yet the SOL/BTC exchange rate has still declined this year. However, as we're in the last month of the year and SOL will launch an ETF next year, whether it can pass is another matter. But the sentiment has already been hyped up, so I've been accumulating positions at 200-205, hoping SOL won't disappoint me!
Which Altcoins can be held long-term regardless of negative news?
First, there's Doge. It's just a matter of time before Doge breaks new highs. After Musk becomes the "Doge CEO" in January, he will surely mention Doge frequently, so there's still upside potential. If you think the cost-performance ratio is not high, you can also consider Pepe and Floki.
The logic behind Pepe is the strong community consensus, and memes are the most important thing, which Pepe possesses, establishing its position in the meme sector. I still see 5 times upside.
Another is Floki, which also has strong community consensus. Floki's advantage is that the project team is willing to spend money on advertising billboards, CCTV news appearances, etc. to drive traffic. Holding Floki also brings continuous airdrops, like the recent 4% CAT profit distribution and the upcoming MONKY airdrop, so Floki really understands user psychology.
Finally, there's the RWA Ondo, as well as DeFi projects like Aave and MKR. These have been doing well lately thanks to the "Trump brand" holdings, so these sectors also have upside potential.
As for AI, it hasn't had a big performance this round, but FET at 1.3, as recommended by Crab Boss, can still double. If you think FET is a bit outdated, you can consider the AI+meme ACT.
Speaking of ACT, let's talk about PNUT. The original creator of PNUT's prototype is going to sue BN for infringement, which is clearly an attempt to extort money from BN, but this is not the project team's intention. Additionally, PNUT was recently announced to be listed on Coinbase, and it may see another round of gains in about half a month after the official listing. Last time, the entry point was around 1.05-1.15, so you can keep an eye on that price range.
