从历史上看，加密货币估值似乎遵循四年周期，价格先升后降，周而复始。Grayscale Research 认为，投资者有可能通过观察各种基于区块链的指标和其他测量方式来追踪加密周期，从而为风险管理提供参考。
加密领域正逐渐成熟：新的比特币和以太币现货交易所交易产品（ETP）拓宽了市场准入，美国新一届国会可能会为该行业带来更清晰的监管环境。基于这些原因，加密资产估值或许最终将超越早期市场历史中经常出现...

<div><div>从历史上看，加密货币估值似乎遵循四年周期，价格先升后降，周而复始。Grayscale Research 认为，投资者有可能通过观察各种基于区块链的指标和其他测量方式来追踪加密周期，从而为风险管理提供参考。加密领域正逐渐成熟：新的比特币和以太币现货交易所交易产品（ETP）拓宽了市场准入，美国新一届国会可能会为该行业带来更清晰的监管环境。基于这些原因，加密资产估值或许最终将超越早期市场历史中经常出现的四年周期模式。话虽如此，Grayscale Research 认为，目前各种指标的组合仍与周期的中期阶段相一致。只要该资产类别仍受到基本面因素的支撑（如应用的采用度以及更广泛的宏观市场条件），牛市可能延续至 2025 年及以后。与许多实物商品类似，比特币的价格并不遵循严格的“随机游走”[1]。相反，价格显示出统计上的动量特征：涨势往往接续涨势，跌势往往接续跌势。从更长时间尺度看，比特币周期性上涨与下跌的反复出现，使价格呈现出围绕历史上上涨趋势所形成的周期性波动（见图表 1）。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480822447551.png">图表 1：比特币价格特征为围绕上行趋势出现的周期性波动过去的每个价格周期都有独特的驱动因素，并无理由认为未来的价格回报会完全复制过去的经验。此外，随着比特币不断成熟并被更广泛的传统投资者接受，以及其每四年减半事件对供给的影响逐渐降低，比特币价格的周期性波动可能会改变甚至消退。然而，研究过去的周期可能会为投资者提供一些比特币典型统计行为的参考，从而对风险管理决策有所裨益。<h2>测量动量</h2>图表 2 展示了比特币在每个既往周期上升阶段的价格表现。价格以周期性低点（标志着上涨阶段起点）为基准定为 100，并追踪至其峰值（标志着上涨阶段的终点）。图表 3 则以表格形式展现了同样信息。比特币历史上最早的价格周期较短且陡峭：第一个周期持续时间不足一年，第二个周期大约持续了两年。在这两个周期中，价格均从前一周期低点上涨超过 500 倍。随后的两个周期各持续近三年。在 2015 年 1 月至 2017 年 12 月的周期中，比特币价格上涨逾 100 倍，而在 2018 年 12 月至 2021 年 11 月的周期中，比特币价格上涨约 20 倍。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480857205525.png">图表 2：本轮比特币价格走势与过去两个市场周期相对接近在 2021 年 11 月见顶后，比特币价格在 2022 年 11 月跌至约 1.6 万美元的周期性低点。此后，本轮价格上涨阶段便从该点开始，截至目前已持续两年多。如图表 2 所示，本轮价格上涨趋势与过去两个周期轨迹相对接近，而这两个周期均在此后又持续约一年才见顶。从涨幅角度看，本周期比特币约 6 倍的回报率虽可观，但与过去四个周期的涨幅相比仍显逊色。总而言之，虽然我们无法确定未来的价格表现会与过去的周期一致，但比特币的历史表明，本轮牛市在持续时间和涨幅方面都有可能进一步延展。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480893909260.png">图表 3：比特币价格历史中的四个不同周期<h2>检查关键指标</h2>除了测量过去周期的价格表现，投资者还可使用多种基于区块链的指标来评估比特币牛市的成熟度。常用指标包括衡量比特币相对于买入者成本基础的涨幅程度、新增资金流入比特币的规模，以及比特币价格相对于矿工收入的水平等。其中一个颇受欢迎的指标是 MVRV 比例，即比特币的市值（MV，以每枚币在二级市场的价格计量）与其已实现价值（RV，以每枚币上次链上交易时的价格计量）之比。MVRV 比例可视为比特币市值相对于市场总体成本基础超出的程度。在过去四个周期的每一个周期中，MVRV 比例均至少达到 4（见图表 4）。目前 MVRV 比例为 2.6，这意味着本轮周期可能仍有上行空间。不过，MVRV 比例在每个周期的峰值都比前一周期低，因此本指标本轮或许在价格见顶前并不一定达到 4。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480936578327.png">图表 4：MVRV 比例处于中间水平其他链上指标则衡量新资金进入比特币生态系统的程度——这一框架在资深加密投资者中常称为“HODL 波”（HODL Waves）。价格上涨可能是因为新资本以略高于原有长期持有者成本的价格购入比特币。可供选择的具体指标有很多，但 Grayscale Research 偏好使用过去一年内在链上发生转移的币量与比特币流通供给总量的比例（见图表 5）[2]。在过去的四个周期中，这一指标至少达到过 60%，也就是说在上涨阶段的一年中，至少 60% 的流通供给曾在链上发生交易。当前该数值约为 54%，这意味着在价格见顶前，链上可能还需有更多的币易手。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480980237876.png">图表 5：过去一年活动的比特币流通量低于 60%此外，围绕比特币矿工的周期性指标也值得关注。矿工是为比特币网络提供安全保障的专业服务提供者。例如，一个常用的测量方式是计算矿工总市值（MC，即矿工持有的所有比特币的美元价值）与“热力上限”（TC，即矿工通过区块奖励和交易费累计获得的比特币价值）的比率。其直觉在于，当矿工持有的资产价值达到一定门槛时，可能会选择获利了结。历史上，当 MCTC 比例超过 10 时，价格往往在该周期达到峰值（见图表 6）。目前 MCTC 比例约为 6，这表明我们仍处于本轮周期的中间阶段。不过，与 MVRV 比例类似，该指标在每个周期的峰值也在降低，价格可能在 MCTC 比例达到 10 之前就已见顶。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734480995906563.png">图表 6：比特币矿工指标尚未达过去峰值水平还有许多其他链上指标，不同的数据来源对这些指标的计算可能略有差异。此外，这些工具只能大致说明当前价格上涨阶段相对于过去的比较情况，并不能保证这些指标与未来价格回报的关系会与过去相同。即便如此，总体而言，比特币周期的常用指标仍低于过去价格见顶时的水平，这表明如果基本面仍有支撑，本轮牛市可能得以持续。<h2>放眼比特币之外</h2>加密市场远不止比特币，行业其他领域的信号也可能为市场周期状态提供指引。我们认为，这些指标在未来一年尤为重要，因为比特币与其他加密资产的相对表现值得关注。在过去的两个市场周期中，比特币主导地位（即比特币在加密总市值中的占比）在牛市开始后约两年达到顶峰（见图表 7）[3]。近期比特币主导地位开始下降，这与前两个周期在进入第三年左右时的表现类似。如果该趋势继续下去，投资者应考虑更加广泛的指标，以判断加密估值是否接近周期性高点。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481692627812.png">图表 7：在过去两个周期的第三年，比特币主导地位下降例如，投资者可以关注资金费率（funding rates），即在永续合约中持有多头头寸的持续成本。当投机交易者对杠杆多头的需求上升时，资金费率往往会走高。因此，市场总体资金费率水平能反映整体投机性多头头寸的程度。图表 8 显示了比特币之外市值排名前十的加密资产（即主要“山寨币”）的加权平均资金费率 [4]。目前，资金费率显著为正，这表明杠杆投资者对多头头寸有需求，尽管在上周市场下跌中资金费率有所回落。此外，即使在局部高点，资金费率仍低于今年早些时候的水平以及上一周期的高点。因此，我们认为当前水平与中期投机头寸规模相符，而未达到成熟市场周期所通常对应的极端高位。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481707746467.png">图表 8：资金费率显示山寨币存在中等水平的投机多头与此形成对比的是，山寨币永续合约未平仓量（OI）已达到相对较高水平。在 12 月 9 日周一发生大规模清算之前，山寨币 OI 在最大三家永续合约交易所上接近 540 亿美元（见图表 9）。这表明整个市场存在较高的投机多头仓位水平。在本周初的一轮清算浪潮后，山寨币 OI 下降约 100 亿美元，但仍维持在较高位置。高额投机性多头头寸与市场周期晚期阶段一致，因此继续监测这一指标可能颇为重要。<img alt="周期" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481723322326.png">图表 9：近期清算前山寨币未平仓量居高不下<h2>往后看</h2>自 2009 年比特币诞生以来，数字资产市场已走过漫长的道路，本轮加密牛市与过去存在诸多差异。最重要的是，比特币和以太币现货 ETP 在美国的获批为市场带来 367 亿美元的净资本流入，将这些资产纳入更为传统的投资组合 [5]。此外，我们认为，近期美国大选将可能为市场带来更明晰的监管框架，帮助数字资产在全球最大经济体中获得长期立足之地——这与过去形成鲜明对比，当时人们一再质疑加密资产类别的长期前景。鉴于这些原因，比特币和其他加密资产的估值可能不再遵循其早期历史中常见的四年周期。与此同时，比特币及许多其他加密资产可被视为数字商品，因此可能仍会表现出一定程度的价格动量。对链上指标以及山寨币市场头寸数据的评估，或可为投资者的风险管理决策提供参考。Grayscale Research 认为，当前各种指标的组合与加密市场周期的中期阶段相符：如 MVRV 比例已远高于周期性低点，但尚未达到标志过去市场顶部的水平。只要基本面仍有支撑（如应用的推广与更广泛的宏观市场环境），我们看不出为何本轮加密牛市无法延续至 2025 年及以后。<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref1" rel="nofollow">[1]</a> In a financial markets context, a random walk refers to the idea that asset prices evolve in an unpredictable way, in which information of past events holds no information about future results.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref2" rel="nofollow">[2]</a> Free Float Bitcoin supply defined by Coin Metrics as tokens active at least once in last five years.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref3" rel="nofollow">[3]</a> Exhibit 7 only shows the two most recent cycles, because the altcoin market was not sufficiently developed before that point.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref4" rel="nofollow">[4]</a> Defined as the largest tokens by market capitalization after Bitcoin with available data. No data was available for TON, so next largest asset DOT included instead.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref5" rel="nofollow">[5]</a> Source: Bloomberg, Grayscale Investments. Data as of December 11, 2024.</div></div>

灰度研究：牛市尚未见顶，将延续至 2025 年

From a historical perspective, the valuation of cryptocurrencies appears to follow a four-year cycle, with prices rising and then falling, repeating this pattern. <Grayscale Research> believes that investors may be able to track the crypto cycle by observing various blockchain-based metrics and other measurement methods, which could provide a reference for risk management.

The crypto space is gradually maturing: new Bitcoin and Ethereum spot exchange-traded products (ETPs) have expanded market access, and the new US Congress may provide a clearer regulatory environment for the industry. For these reasons, the valuation of crypto assets may ultimately exceed the frequent occurrences seen in the early market history...

Here is the English translation of the text, with the terms in <> retained as is:

From a historical perspective, the valuation of <Bit>s seems to follow a four-year cycle, with prices first rising and then falling, repeating this pattern. Grayscale Research believes that investors may be able to track the <Bit>coin cycle by observing various <Block>chain-based indicators and other measurement methods, which can provide a reference for risk management.

The <Bit>coin field is gradually maturing: new <Bit>coin and <Ether> spot <Token> exchange-traded products (ETPs) have expanded market access, and the new US Congress may provide a clearer regulatory environment for the industry. For these reasons, the valuation of <Bit>coin assets may ultimately exceed the four-year cycle pattern that often appears in the early market history.

That said, Grayscale Research believes that the combination of various indicators is still consistent with the mid-stage of the cycle. As long as this asset class continues to be supported by fundamental factors (such as the adoption of applications and broader macroeconomic conditions), the bull market may extend until 2025 or beyond.

Similar to many physical commodities, the price of <Bit>coin does not follow a strict "random walk". Instead, the price exhibits statistical momentum characteristics: uptrends tend to follow uptrends, and downtrends tend to follow downtrends. Viewed over a longer time scale, the recurring <Bit>coin cycles of upswings and downswings result in a cyclical fluctuation around the historical upward trend (see Chart 1).

Chart 1: <Bit>coin price characteristics exhibit cyclical fluctuations around an upward trend

Each past price cycle has had unique driving factors, and there is no reason to believe that future price returns will completely replicate past experiences. Furthermore, as <Bit>coin matures and is increasingly accepted by a wider range of traditional investors, and as the impact of the four-year halving event on supply gradually diminishes, the cyclical fluctuations in <Bit>coin prices may change or even disappear. However, studying past cycles may provide investors with a reference for the typical statistical behavior of <Bit>coin, which can benefit risk management decisions.

Measuring Momentum

Chart 2 shows the price performance of <Bit>coin during the upward phase of each past cycle. The prices are indexed to 100 at the cyclical low points (marking the starting point of the upward phase) and tracked to their peaks (marking the end of the upward phase). Chart 3 presents the same information in tabular form.

<Bit>coin's earliest price cycles were shorter and steeper: the first cycle lasted less than a year, and the second cycle lasted about two years. In these two cycles, the price rose more than 500 times from the previous cycle's low point. The subsequent two cycles each lasted nearly three years. In the cycle from January 2015 to December 2017, <Bit>coin's price rose over 100 times, while in the cycle from December 2018 to November 2021, <Bit>coin's price rose about 20 times.

After peaking in November 2021, <Bit>coin's price fell to a cyclical low of around $16,000 in November 2022. The current upward phase has since begun from that point and has continued for over two years. As shown in Chart 2, the current price uptrend is relatively close to the trajectories of the past two cycles, both of which then continued for about another year before peaking. In terms of the magnitude of the gains, the current cycle's return of around 6 times is notable, but still lags behind the gains of the past four cycles. In summary, while we cannot be certain that future performance will be consistent with past cycles, <Bit>coin's history suggests that the current bull market may further extend in both duration and magnitude.

Checking Key Indicators

In addition to measuring the price performance of past cycles, investors can also use various <Block>chain-based indicators to assess the maturity of the <Bit>coin bull market. Common indicators include measures of the extent of <Bit>coin's appreciation relative to the cost basis of buyers, the scale of new capital inflows into <Bit>coin, and the level of <Bit>coin prices relative to miner revenues.

One popular indicator is the MVRV ratio, which is the ratio of <Bit>coin's market value (MV, measured by the price in the secondary market per coin) to its realized value (RV, measured by the price per coin at the time of its last on-chain transaction). The MVRV ratio can be seen as the extent to which <Bit>coin's market value exceeds the overall cost basis of the market. In each of the past four cycles, the MVRV ratio has reached at least 4 (see Chart 4). The current MVRV ratio is 2.6, suggesting that the current cycle may still have upside potential. However, the peak MVRV ratio in each cycle has been lower than the previous cycle, so this indicator may not necessarily reach 4 before the price peaks this time.

Other on-chain indicators measure the extent of new capital entering the <Bit>coin ecosystem - a framework often referred to as "HODL Waves" among seasoned <Bit>coin investors. Price increases may be driven by new capital entering <Bit>coin at slightly higher prices than the existing long-term holders' cost basis. While there are many specific indicators to choose from, Grayscale Research prefers to use the ratio of the amount of <Bit>coin that has moved on-chain in the past year to the total <Bit>coin circulating supply (see Chart 5). In the past four cycles, this indicator has reached at least 60%, meaning that during the upward phase of a year, at least 60% of the circulating supply has changed hands on-chain. The current value is around 54%, suggesting that more <Bit>coin may need to change hands on-chain before the price peaks.

Furthermore, the cyclical indicators around <Bit>coin miners are also worth monitoring. Miners are professional service providers who provide security to the <Bit>coin network. For example, a common metric is the ratio of the total market capitalization of miners (MC, the US dollar value of all <Bit>coin held by miners) to the "thermal cap" (TC, the value of <Bit>coin accumulated by miners through block rewards and transaction fees). The intuition is that when the value of miners' assets reaches a certain threshold, they may choose to realize their gains. Historically, when the MC/TC ratio has exceeded 10, the price has typically reached a peak in that cycle (see Chart 6). The current MC/TC ratio is around 6, suggesting that we are still in the mid-stage of the current cycle. However, similar to the MVRV ratio, the peak value of this indicator has been declining in each cycle, so the price may peak before the MC/TC ratio reaches 10.

There are many other on-chain indicators, and the calculations of these metrics may vary slightly across different data sources. Furthermore, these tools can only broadly indicate the current price upswing's position relative to the past, and do not guarantee that the relationship between these indicators and future price returns will be the same as in the past. Nevertheless, overall, the common indicators of the <Bit>coin cycle remain below the levels seen at past price peaks, suggesting that if the fundamentals continue to be supportive, the current bull market may persist.<h2>Looking Beyond Bitcoin</h2>The crypto market is far more than just Bitcoin, and signals from other areas of the industry may provide guidance on the state of the market cycle. We believe these indicators will be particularly important in the coming year, as the relative performance of Bitcoin and other crypto assets warrants attention. Over the past two market cycles, Bitcoin's dominance (i.e., Bitcoin's share of total crypto market capitalization) peaked around two years after the start of the bull market (see Exhibit 7) [3]. Bitcoin's dominance has recently started to decline, similar to its performance around the third year of the prior two cycles. If this trend continues, investors should consider a broader set of indicators to assess whether crypto valuations are nearing a cyclical peak.<img alt="Cycles" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481692627812.png">Exhibit 7: Bitcoin's dominance declined in the third year of the past two cyclesFor example, investors can monitor funding rates, the ongoing cost of holding long positions in perpetual futures contracts. Funding rates tend to rise when speculative traders demand increased leverage on long positions. Therefore, the overall level of funding rates in the market can reflect the degree of speculative long positioning. Exhibit 8 shows the weighted average funding rate for the top 10 crypto assets by market capitalization (i.e., major "Altcoins") [4]. Currently, funding rates are significantly positive, indicating demand from leveraged long investors, although funding rates have pulled back somewhat in the recent market decline. Moreover, even at local highs, funding rates remain below levels seen earlier this year and the peaks of the prior cycle. Therefore, we believe the current levels are consistent with a moderate level of speculative long positioning, rather than the extreme highs typically associated with a mature market cycle.<img alt="Cycles" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481707746467.png">Exhibit 8: Funding rates indicate a moderate level of speculative long positioning in AltcoinsIn contrast, Altcoin perpetual futures open interest (OI) has reached relatively high levels. Prior to the large-scale liquidations on Monday, December 9th, Altcoin OI across the top three perpetual futures exchanges approached $54 billion (see Exhibit 9). This suggests a high level of speculative long positioning across the market. After the wave of liquidations earlier this week, Altcoin OI has declined by around $10 billion, but remains at elevated levels. Elevated speculative long positioning is consistent with a late-stage market cycle, so continued monitoring of this indicator may be crucial.<img alt="Cycles" src="https://hx24-prod.mars-block.com/image/news/2024/12/18/1734481723322326.png">Exhibit 9: Altcoin open interest remained elevated prior to the recent wave of liquidations<h2>Looking Ahead</h2>Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, the digital asset market has come a long way, and this crypto bull market differs from the past in several ways. Most importantly, the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETPs in the U.S. has brought $36.7 billion of net capital inflows, integrating these assets into more traditional investment portfolios [5]. Additionally, we believe the recent U.S. election is likely to provide a clearer regulatory framework, helping digital assets find a long-term footing in the world's largest economy - a stark contrast to the past, when the long-term viability of the crypto asset class was repeatedly questioned. For these reasons, the valuations of Bitcoin and other crypto assets may no longer follow the typical four-year cycles seen in their early history.At the same time, Bitcoin and many other crypto assets can be viewed as digital commodities, and may therefore still exhibit some degree of price momentum. An assessment of on-chain indicators and Altcoin market positioning data may provide investors with useful inputs for risk management decisions. Grayscale Research believes the current combination of indicators is consistent with the mid-stage of the crypto market cycle: MVRV ratios are well above cyclical lows, but have not yet reached levels typically associated with past market peaks. Provided the fundamentals remain supportive (such as continued adoption and a favorable macroeconomic environment), we see no reason why this crypto bull market cannot extend into 2025 and beyond.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref1" rel="nofollow">[1]</a> In a financial markets context, a random walk refers to the idea that asset prices evolve in an unpredictable way, in which information of past events holds no information about future results.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref2" rel="nofollow">[2]</a> Free Float Bitcoin supply defined by Coin Metrics as tokens active at least once in last five years.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref3" rel="nofollow">[3]</a> Exhibit 7 only shows the two most recent cycles, because the Altcoin market was not sufficiently developed before that point.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref4" rel="nofollow">[4]</a> Defined as the largest tokens by market capitalization after Bitcoin with available data. No data was available for TON, so next largest asset DOT included instead.<a href="https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/the-state-of-the-crypto-cycle#_ftnref5" rel="nofollow">[5]</a> Source: Bloomberg, Grayscale Investments. Data as of December 11, 2024.</div></div>

Grayscale Research: The bull market has not peaked yet and will continue until 2025

The cryptocurrency exchange <Bitfinex>'s analysts are optimistic about the cryptocurrency market outlook for 2025. Based on multiple indicators, they point out that the market has not yet reached its peak, and they expect Bit to reach its highest point in the third to fourth quarter of next year, with the price potentially ranging between $145,000 and $189,000.

In a report released on Monday, <Bitfinex> stated that the current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and spot accumulation. Historical data suggests that "we are in the middle of the cycle," and as Bit halving occurs...

Bitfinex report: Bitcoin is in the middle of a bull market and is expected to peak in the third to fourth quarter of next year

Here is the English translation:

The value and price of BTC.
Author: Tony Ling (pen name: Long Ye)
Article summary:
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As of the time of writing this article, Q4 2024, this is the early stage of a new bull market in the crypto industry.
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The value of BTC in the macro domain, by analogy with bonds and stocks in financial history, is the "fuel" for a new round of human technological development; in the middle domain, it is the currency and index of the digital world that humanity will inevitably enter in the future; in the micro domain, it is the landing of a new round of legal regulations, the compliance of token issuance, and the absorption of investment demand from the general public around the world.
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This may be the last window of opportunity for cryp...

2024 & 2025, BTC’s last Mega cycle

Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark last week, undoubtedly a historic milestone. However, as this leading cryptocurrency celebrates its achievements, many <Altcoins> have begun to outperform Bitcoin, heralding the arrival of the <Altcoin> season.

Since the beginning of the year, 20 out of the top 50 crypto assets by market capitalization have seen gains exceeding Bitcoin's impressive 124% rise. The rise in <Altcoin> market capitalization, increased media attention, and the surge in the <Altcoin> season index further confirm this trend. Additionally, a recent report by CCData shows that 11 ...

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