Odaily星球日报讯 一些分析师认为，比特币的涨势在最初停滞后最终将在总统大选后继续。Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示，BTC 价格可能会回调 30%左右，然后才能恢复牛市走势。 此外，比特币长期持有者（持有比特币超过 155 天的地址）正坐拥可观的利润，这可能会增加进一步抛售的风险，因为投资者可能会寻求套现并在新的一年获利。 根据 Bitbo 的数据，长期持有者的实现价格（realized price）为 24,298 美元，如果他们以当前价格（94,820 美元）出售，则可获利约 290%。 然而，短期持有者（持有比特币的时间少于 155 天）的平均成本基础要高得多，该群体实现价格为 86,753 美元，如果以当前价格出售，仅可获利 9.29%。（Cointelegraph）

Odaily星球日报讯 一些分析师认为，比特币的涨势在最初停滞后最终将在总统大选后继续。Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 表示，BTC 价格可能会回调 30%左右，然后才能恢复牛市走势。此外，比特币长期持有者（持有比特币超过 155 天的地址）正坐拥可观的利润，这可能会增加进一步抛售的风险，因为投资者可能会寻求套现并在新的一年获利。根据 Bitbo 的数据，长期持有者的实现价格（realized price）为 24,298 美元，如果他们以当前价格（94,820 美元）出售，则可获利约 290%。然而，短期持有者（持有比特币的时间少于 155 天）的平均成本基础要高得多，该群体实现价格为 86,753 美元，如果以当前价格出售，仅可获利 9.29%。（Cointelegraph）

分析：若比特币长期持有者获利了结，当前回报率约为290%

Odaily reports that some analysts believe that the rise of Bit will continue after the presidential election, after an initial stagnation. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee said that the price of BTC may pull back by around 30% before recovering a bullish trend. In addition, long-term Bit holders (addresses holding Bit for more than 155 days) are sitting on substantial profits, which may increase the risk of further sell-offs, as investors may seek to cash out and profit in the new year. According to Bitbo's data, the realized price of long-term holders is $24,298, and if they sell at the current price ($94,820), they can profit by about 290%. However, the average cost basis of short-term holders (holding Bit for less than 155 days) is much higher, with a realized price of $86,753, and if they sell at the current price, they can only profit by 9.29%. (Cointelegraph)

Odaily reports that some analysts believe that the rise of Bit will continue after the initial stagnation after the presidential election. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research, said that the price of BTC may pull back by around 30% before it can recover a bullish trend. In addition, long-term Bit holders (addresses holding Bit for more than 155 days) are sitting on substantial profits, which may increase the risk of further sell-offs, as investors may seek to cash out and profit in the new year. According to data from Bitbo, the realized price of long-term holders is $24,298, and if they sell at the current price ($94,820), they can profit by about 290%. However, the average cost basis of short-term holders (holding Bit for less than 155 days) is much higher, with this group having a realized price of $86,753, and if they sell at the current price, they can only profit by 9.29%. (Cointelegraph)

Analysis: If long-term Bitcoin holders take profits, the current return rate is about 290%

Odaily reports that Michael Saylor recently initiated a poll on <platform> to predict the annual return rate of Bitcoin over the next 21 years, providing four estimated return rate options: 14%, 22%, 30%, and 38%. The survey ultimately received 93,456 votes, with the majority of participants (39.3%) choosing the highest 38% as their prediction for BTC's future performance. The next highest was 30%, with 19.4% of the votes; additionally, 19.1% of voters believe the BTC annual return rate will be around 22%, while 22.2% of voters were more conservative, choosing a 14% return rate prediction.

Michael Saylor initiated a poll, and nearly 40% of the participants believed that BTC’s annual return rate in the next 21 years would be 38%

Odaily reports that Fairlead Strategists founder Katie Stockton believes that due to some technical indicators suggesting a strong bearish momentum in the short term, Bitcoin may drop another 10%. Stockton said that in the coming weeks, Bitcoin may fall to a support level of around $84,500, which would mean a 10% decline from current levels. She added that if the price continues to fall, the next support level could be around $73,800, which would mean a 22% decline from current levels. Stockton pointed out that Bitcoin broke below the 50-day moving average last week, confirming the "medium-term overbought 'sell' signal" and supporting the price correction forecast for the first quarter of this year, "based on the daily MACD and 20-day moving average, short-term momentum is now negative, supporting a shift to a short-term bearish bias." Although there may be weakness in the short term, Stockton remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term outlook and cited several positive monthly indicators: "The monthly stochastic and MACD continue to support the long-term bullish outlook for the new year, so investors may view the pullback as an opportunity to increase their Bitcoin exposure."

Analysis: Technical indicators show strong short-term bearish momentum for Bitcoin, with a 10% drop in the coming weeks

Bitcoin seems to have stabilized after plunging to as low as $91,540 yesterday, continuing to set higher highs and lower lows in the midst of volatility, and reaching $96,258 just before 0:00 today.

However, selling pressure has since emerged, and as of the time of writing, it is trading at $93,829, up 1.73% in the past 24 hours. The global market is still in the midst of New Year's celebrations, and it may continue to consolidate for a longer period. But if Bitcoin can avoid falling below the previous low, it may have a chance to challenge the $100,000 mark again.

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