If the national reserve fails, can Bitcoin still break through $150,000?

Here is the English translation: In 2024, Bit rose 135% to become the best-performing asset globally. However, the market is no stranger to Bit's impressive performance, as Bit has topped the global asset rankings 8 times in the past decade. It is fair to say that holding Bit long-term has become the best "lying-down" strategy in the past decade. Looking ahead to 2025, almost all institutions are highly optimistic about Bit's market performance in 2025. According to a Coindesk report, 8 institutions including CoinShares, Galaxy Digital, VanEck, Bitwise, and Standard Chartered Bank predict that Bit's target range for 2025 will have a lower limit of $150,000. So, can Bit continue its brilliant performance in 2024? The author believes that Bit still has the potential to hit a new historical high in 2025, but the author's view on the degree of optimism about the market is different. It is well known that the optimistic expectations of most institutions are mainly based on the further increase in the proportion of Bit in institutional investment portfolios, and the realization of this expectation requires Trump to fulfill his promise to include Bit in the national reserves. According to data from the World Gold Council, as of September 2024, the US gold reserve was 8,133.5 tons, worth about $700 billion. Considering that Bit's circulating market value is about one-tenth of gold, the theoretical scale of the US reserve of Bit will reach $70 billion. Even if the US government has already obtained about $20 billion worth of Bit through law enforcement, its theoretical purchase space can still reach $50 billion. In addition, US pension funds generally allocate 1%-2% of their funds to gold, with a scale between $400 billion and $800 billion. However, the allocation of pension funds to Bit is almost zero (the scale is only a few hundred million dollars). If the national level allocates Bit first, pension funds and large companies will inevitably follow suit, which will bring huge increments to the crypto market. It can be said with certainty that the boost to the crypto market from Bit being included in the national reserve is no less than the approval of the Bit ETF. As long as this goal is achieved, Bit breaking through $150,000 in 2025 is a foregone conclusion. However, the key issue is that it is not easy for Trump to make Bit a national reserve. At present, there are three main ways for Trump to quickly establish a national Bit reserve: 1. The Federal Reserve purchases Bit through open market operations and includes it in its balance sheet. This measure only requires FOMC voting and does not need Congressional approval. 2. After taking office, Trump issues an executive order instructing the US Treasury Department to directly purchase Bit using the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). 3. The Treasury Department sets up a government Bit special investment plan and clearly identifies the source of funds (such as issuing government bonds or fiscal allocation), which is then implemented after being approved by Congress. From the current situation, the possibility of Bit being included in the national reserve through the Federal Reserve is extremely slim. First, the Federal Reserve's open market operations mainly involve government bonds and government-backed securities, and there is almost no record of buying gold, let alone buying high-volatility assets like Bit. Secondly, on December 20, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly stated in the post-monetary policy meeting press conference that the Federal Reserve has no intention of participating in any government plans to hoard Bit. He emphasized that such issues should be the responsibility of Congress, and the Federal Reserve has not sought to amend existing laws to allow holding Bit. Powell's statement was interpreted by the outside world as a tacit opposition to the national Bit reserve plan. The establishment of a special fiscal investment plan is considered a scheme with longer-term legal support. However, the use of fiscal revenue involves budget allocation, and the issuance of bonds involves government financing, both of which require Congressional approval. This makes the implementation of the fiscal plan lengthy and full of uncertainty. On the whole, the second approach - Trump instructing the Treasury Department to use the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bit through an executive order - is the most feasible plan within the scope of the US President's authority. However, even if this approach is theoretically feasible, it still faces multiple challenges, especially Congressional oversight and political risks. To some extent, the Federal Reserve's attitude reflects the position of Wall Street. It is feasible for these vested interests to increase their Bit business to boost their income, but for them to give up financial dominance and pave the way for Bit is almost impossible. As White House crypto czar David Sacks predicted, it may take a catastrophic sovereign currency crisis for the market to recognize Bit's status as a mainstream currency. Therefore, after Powell's speech, PolyMarket's trading pricing showed that the probability of Bit becoming the US national reserve fell from 36% on December 20, 2024 to 24% on January 3, 2025. Macroscopically, 2025 is also the year when the global capital market is most likely to see a black swan event. First, affected by the rebound in inflation and the imposition of tariffs, the market generally lowered its expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts next year, and some Wall Street institutions have even predicted that the Fed will start raising rates in the second half of next year. Therefore, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has continued to rise against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, surpassing the federal funds rate for the first time in nearly two years. This has a clear crowding-out effect on the liquidity of risk assets. Secondly, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the US expansionary fiscal policy is a key factor supporting the prosperity of the US stock market and consumer market. If the new government significantly cuts government spending, the market will face the risk of losing the momentum support. Of course, the author does not believe that the market has fully digested the positive impact of Trump's crypto new policy. However, these positive factors are more likely to bring trading opportunities to the market, such as opportunities for Bit range trading and opportunities in certain crypto sub-sectors (such as asset tokenization, AI agents, DeFi, etc.). In terms of operation, the author tends to believe that Bit will see a 30% to 40% increase in 2025, with a target range of $122,000 to $130,000. Therefore, appropriate profit-taking above $122,000 is also a relatively stable strategy.