A lot of individual facts that the bears were saying in 2023 and 2024 were correct, but those facts were dwarfed by fiscal dominance.
For example, net bank loan creation was sluggish at just $300B over the past year.
But banks also bought $400B net in Treasuries.
Healthcare spending, DoD spending, Social Security spending, and interest expense just kept rolling.
There are potentially more headwinds against real GDP and equities in 2025.
But even those headwinds have to be compared to the structural fiscal deficits in the economy. Bad years are likely to look more stagflationary than deflationary during fiscal dominance.
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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