We are excited about some trends
a16z recently released a comprehensive "Big Bets" list covering areas such as AI, American Dynamism, Bio/Health, Crypto, Enterprise, Fintech, Gaming, and Infrastructure, sharing the partners' views on potential new directions in the technology landscape for the coming year.
Here are some "Big Bets" selected from the perspectives of several crypto team members. To learn more, you can read the full article. You can also check out the Big Bets from previous years here and here.
Additionally, if you want to know more about the outlook for policies, regulations, and other aspects in 2025, you can refer to our article published in November.
1. More and more enterprises will accept stablecoin payments
Over the past year, stablecoins have found product-market fit - not surprisingly, as they are the cheapest way to remit a US dollar, enabling fast global payments. Stablecoins also provide a more accessible platform for entrepreneurs building new payment products: no gatekeepers, no minimum balances, or proprietary SDKs required. But large enterprises have not yet fully realized the significant cost savings and profit opportunities that switching to these payment rails can bring.
We've seen some enterprise interest in stablecoins (with early adoption in peer-to-peer payments), but I expect to see a larger wave of experimentation by 2025. Small and medium-sized businesses - such as restaurants, coffee shops, and small retailers - that have strong brands, captive customers, and are burdened by high payment fees will likely be the first to switch from credit cards to stablecoin payments. They don't get the credit card fraud protection in face-to-face transactions but still pay 30 cents per transaction, which is a meaningful cost for low-ticket businesses like selling coffee.
We should also expect to see larger enterprises adopt stablecoins. If stablecoins can indeed accelerate the historical progression of banking, enterprises will want to capture that ~2% profit margin by bypassing payment processors. Enterprises will also start seeking new solutions for the other functionalities credit card companies currently provide, such as fraud protection and identity services.
——Sam Broner [@sambroner] | [@sambroner] on Farcaster
2. Countries exploring putting government bonds on-chain
Putting government bonds on the blockchain could create a government-backed, interest-bearing digital asset without the regulatory oversight concerns of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). These products could also be used as collateral in decentralized finance (DeFi) lending and derivatives protocols, tapping into new sources of demand and bringing more robustness and credibility to those ecosystems.
As pro-innovation governments around the world explore the public, permissionless, and irreversible advantages of blockchain, some countries may pilot the issuance of on-chain government bonds this year. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is researching digital securities through its sandbox, and the Treasury/Chancellor have also expressed interest in issuing digital gilts.
In the US, with the SEC set to require traditional and costly infrastructure for government bond clearing next year, there may be more discussion around how blockchain can improve the transparency, efficiency, and participation in bond trading.
——Brian Quintenz [@brianquintenz] | [@brianq] on Farcaster
3. "DUNA" poised for widespread adoption in US blockchain networks
In 2024, Wyoming passed new legislation formally recognizing DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations) as legal entities. DUNA ("Decentralized Unincorporated Nonprofit Association") is the purpose-built structure for on-chain decentralized governance, and the only viable structure for US-based projects. By incorporating DUNA into their decentralized entity structure, crypto projects and other decentralized communities can give their DAOs legal standing - enabling economic activity, shielding token holders from liability, and managing tax and compliance needs.
DAOs - the communities governing open blockchain networks - are essential to ensure networks remain open, non-discriminatory, and don't unfairly extract value. DUNA can unlock the potential of DAOs, and some projects are already experimenting with implementing it. As the US actively fosters and accelerates the crypto ecosystem in 2025, I believe DUNA will become a standard for US-based projects. We also expect other states to enact similar structures (Wyoming was first to adopt the now-popular LLC structure) - especially as other decentralized use cases (like physical infrastructure/energy grids) start to emerge.
——Miles Jennings [@milesjennings] | [@milesjennings] on Farcaster
4. Builders will increasingly "reuse" rather than "rebuild" infrastructure
Over the past year, teams have been "reinventing the wheel" across the blockchain stack - another new validator set, consensus protocol implementation, execution engine, programming language, RPC API. While sometimes incrementally improving on specific functionalities, this often leads to the lack of many common or foundational capabilities. Take the example of zero-knowledge (SNARK) specialized programming languages: in an ideal world, they could help idealistic developers write more performant SNARKs, but in reality, they may lag behind general-purpose languages in compiler optimizations, developer tooling, online learning materials, AI programming support, and more - sometimes even underperforming the latter.
Therefore, I expect in 2025, more teams will "reuse" others' work in blockchain development, such as leveraging existing consensus protocols, existing staked capital, and ready-made proof systems, rather than building from scratch. This not only saves a tremendous amount of time and effort, but also allows teams to focus on the core competencies that truly differentiate their product/service.
Blockchain infrastructure is now mature enough to support mainstream Web3 products and services. Like other industries, the teams that successfully integrate complex supply chains will be the ones most likely to ship great products, not the ones that scoff at all "non-homegrown" components.
——Joachim Neu [@jneu_net]
5. Crypto industry finally sees its own app stores and app distribution
When crypto apps are blocked by centralized platforms like the Apple App Store or Google Play, their ability to acquire new users is severely limited. But we've seen some new app stores and marketplaces emerge that provide this distribution and discovery function without similar gatekeeping. For example, Worldcoin's World App has built a "mini apps" aggregator that onboards tens of thousands of users to various apps within days, while verifying their identity. Another example is the free dApp Store for Solana mobile users. These examples also show that innovation is happening not just in the software layer, but also in hardware like smartphones and iris scanners (Orbs), just as Apple devices catalyzed the early app ecosystem.
Meanwhile, there are other app stores on popular blockchains, aggregating thousands of decentralized apps and Web3 developer tools (like Alchemy); some gaming ones also serve as both publisher and distributor (like Ronin). But not everything is "fun and games": onboarding users from existing communication apps to blockchain will be challenging (though there are exceptions like Telegram/TON network); the same goes for apps that already have large Web2 distribution. However, we may see more of these migration cases by 2025.
——Maggie Hsu [@meigga] | [@maggiehsu] on Farcaster
6. "Holders of Cryptocurrencies" Will Become "Users of Cryptocurrencies"
In 2024, cryptocurrencies as a political movement made important progress, with key policymakers and political figures starting to openly support cryptocurrencies; at the same time, cryptocurrencies continued to grow in the financial sector (for example, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs opened up to more investors). Looking ahead to 2025, cryptocurrencies should further evolve into a "computational movement". So where will the next wave of users come from?
I believe it's time to re-engage with the "passive" holders of cryptocurrencies and convert them into active cryptocurrency users, as currently only 5%-10% of cryptocurrency holders are actually using cryptocurrencies. We can bring those 617 million people who already own cryptocurrencies onto the chain - especially as blockchain infrastructure continues to improve and transaction fees continue to decrease, which will allow many new applications to emerge and serve existing and new users. At the same time, the early applications we've seen in areas like stablecoins, DeFi, Non-Fungible Tokens, gaming, social, DePIN, DAOs, and prediction markets are also continuously improving the user experience to make it more accessible to mainstream users.
-- Daren Matsuoka [@darenmatsuoka] | [@darenmatsuoka]
"Hidden Wires" Will Help Birth Killer Web3 Applications
Some of blockchain's "superpowers" are what make it unique, but they also hinder mainstream adoption. For creators and fans, blockchain brings more "connectivity, ownership, monetization" opportunities... but the industry jargon (like "Non-Fungible Tokens", "zkRollups", etc.) and complex design thinking are holding back the very people who need these technologies the most. I've felt this when talking to many media, music, and fashion executives who are interested in Web3.
The adoption curve of many consumer tech products follows a similar path: starting from a "technical origin"; then a legendary company/designer abstracts the complexity; and this then catalyzes truly "breakthrough applications". Look at the journey of email - the SMTP protocol is hidden behind the "Send" button; or credit cards, whose payment rails are invisible to most users. Think about how Spotify transformed the music industry, not by loudly promoting audio formats, but by making playlists readily available. As Nassim Taleb said, "Overengineering leads to fragility. Simplicity scales."
That's why I believe our industry will more consciously embrace the "hidden wires" principle in 2025. The best decentralized applications are already strengthening more intuitive interfaces, making operations as simple as clicking or swiping. In 2025, more companies will focus on simplifying design and clear communication; successful products won't be for "explaining", but for "solving problems".
-- Chris Lyons [@chrislyons] | [@chrislyons]
