Last week, the price of BTC stabilized and rose, closing up for 7 consecutive days on the daily chart, returning above $100,000. After BTC touched a low of $91,530.45 on December 30, the price rebounded and rose for 7 consecutive days. As of January 6, BTC reached a high of $102,724.38, with a maximum weekly gain of 11.35%. Currently, the real-time price of BTC is $101,812.95. The price trend of ETH is largely the same as BTC, rising for 7 consecutive days and reaching $3,744.83 on January 6, with a maximum weekly gain of 13%. The current price of ETH is $3,683.14 (the above data is from Binance spot, January 7, 12:16).
This week, selling pressure has shrunk, and market liquidity has recovered. The strong rebound of BTC has driven the rise of other popular cryptocurrencies such as ETH and SOL, and the bullish sentiment in the market is strengthening. However, market trader Crypto Scient believes that $100,000 is still a key turning point for BTC, and unless BTC can turn $99,000 into a long-term support level, the price may retest the $90,000-88,000 region.
Market Analysis
As of January 6, 2025, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $3.65 trillion, an increase of 6.7% from the previous week's $3.42 trillion. Among them, the performance of the US spot BTC ETF is outstanding, with the on-chain total holdings exceeding 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the total BTC supply, worth about $106.8 billion. This week, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $2.4 billion, with a cumulative net inflow of $38.9 billion, further consolidating its position as an important capital entry point for the market.
BTC Options Market Bullish Sentiment Surges, Traders Bet on Price Breaking $120,000
Deribit data on January 6 shows that the activity of options with strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000 has increased significantly, reflecting traders' strong expectations for further price increases. So far, the open interest of call options with a strike price of $120,000 has reached $1.52 billion, making it the most popular contract type on the Deribit platform. With Trump's inauguration imminent, the BTC market is showing new optimism, particularly in the options market.
At the same time, the put/call ratio for all expiration dates has dropped to 0.24. This low ratio indicates that the trading volume of call options far exceeds that of put options, highlighting the market's confidence in the upward trend of BTC prices. In addition, the price pullback at the end of December briefly pushed BTC to $91,000, but it has now quickly rebounded to $101,000, further reinforcing the market's optimistic expectations for the upward trend.
As Trump is about to take office, the market is paying attention to potential policy benefits, and the activity in the BTC options market may become a leading indicator of future price movements.
Miner Selling Pressure and Exchange Inflows Both Decline, Supply Tightness Supports BTC's Medium-Term Bullishness
On January 6, Bitfinex reported that the BTC liquidity inventory ratio has dropped significantly from 41 months in October 2024 to 6.6 months, with the exchange balance continuously flowing out, and only 200,000 BTC flowed into exchanges this week, while the unrealized profit ratio of short-term holders has dropped to 12%. The increase in stablecoin holdings also indicates that the market has sufficient capital reserves and a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
During the same period, the inflow of BTC to exchanges and the outflow from miners have both declined, further easing the selling pressure in the market and strengthening the medium-term bullish expectation for BTC. Miner outflows to exchanges have also decreased significantly, indicating that miner selling pressure has eased. CryptoQuant data shows that on November 11, 2024, miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, reaching a high, but by early January 2025, this number has dropped to between 2,000 and 5,000 BTC per day. The change in miner behavior reflects their preference to hold in anticipation of price increases.
The dual effect of reduced supply and eased selling pressure has laid the foundation for BTC's medium-term upward trend. As the market structure stabilizes, the upward trend of BTC is expected to continue.
Institutional and Corporate Accumulation Accelerates, BTC Expected to Break $200,000 in 2025
On December 31, Standard Chartered Bank's digital asset research head Geoffrey Kendrick predicted that BTC price will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with the continuous accumulation by institutions and corporations being the core driving force. Since the beginning of 2024, institutions have purchased 683,000 BTC through channels such as spot BTC ETFs and MicroStrategy.
At the corporate level, "BTC accumulation plans" have become a trend. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, "Since last week, 11 listed companies have purchased more BTC. 2025 may be an important node for more companies to join the BTC standard." Japanese listed company Metaplanet plans to increase its BTC holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025 to drive global adoption.
The dual effect of accelerated institutional buying and eased supply has laid a solid foundation for the medium- and long-term upward trend of BTC in 2025.
Trump Concept Memecoins Lead the Surge, Altcoin Sector Sentiment Rebounds
On January 7, the US Congress officially confirmed Trump's election as president, and his crypto-friendly policy expectations have driven the related tokens to rise. The Trump concept Memecoin TRUMP has risen for 3 consecutive days since January 4, with a cumulative gain of over 80%; MAGA and TRUMPCOIN have also gained nearly 100%, but have since retreated. However, tokens held by the World Liberty Financial portfolio, such as LINK and AAVE, have not shown significant gains.
The market sentiment has turned optimistic, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen to 78, entering the "Extreme Greed" zone. BTC's return above $100,000 has driven a broad market rally, but the performance of altcoins has been mixed. SOL has broken through 220 USDT again, AVAX has risen 6%, while SUI has fallen back to 5 USDT after hitting a new high.
The ETH ecosystem sector has seen a short-term correction, with LDO down about 3% and ENA down nearly 10%. Although market expectations are positive, volatility remains a focus of attention in the near term, and investors need to be wary of the risk of short-term corrections.
Market Highlights
US Federal Reserve's Reserve Funds Fall Below $3 Trillion, Reaching the Lowest Level Since 2020
On January 3, according to Federal Reserve data, the US banking system's reserve funds fell to about $2.89 trillion as of the week ending January 1, falling below the $3 trillion mark and reaching the lowest level since October 2020, recording the largest single-week decline in two and a half years, a decrease of about $326 billion.
The year-end regulatory requirements have led banks to reduce their balance sheet activities, with funds flowing from banks to the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. At the same time, the Federal Reserve continues to remove excess cash from the financial system through its quantitative tightening (QT) program, further tightening liquidity. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy and their potential impact on the banking system.
BTC Mining Difficulty Hits New High, Miner Revenue Reaches $1.44 Billion
BTC network mining difficulty and computing power continue to rise. On December 30, 2024, BTC mining difficulty increased by 1.16% to 109.78 T, setting a new record high, with the global average computing power reaching 804.04 EH/s, and the next difficulty adjustment is expected to increase to 111.20 T. Although the efficiency of mining machines has improved, the rapid growth of global computing power and the rise in energy costs have put pressure on the profitability of mining.
In the high-difficulty environment, miner revenue remains strong, reaching $1.44 billion in 2024. The large mining company MARA reported that it obtained $87 million in interest income in the first three quarters through optimizing resource utilization and borrowing strategies, while its computing power reached 53 EH/s. As competition intensifies, miners need to continuously optimize their strategies to maintain profitability in the fierce market.
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