Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms translated as requested: Greetings, friends. The crypto market is undergoing earth-shattering changes, and we must adjust our strategies and tactics, as the methods that used to work are no longer applicable. The traditional 'buy and hold (HODL)' strategy is gradually losing its effectiveness. As market volatility intensifies and new projects emerge, the belief in long-term holding is becoming more fragile. Nowadays, the survival law of the market is flexible trading, constantly adjusting positions, and seeking opportunities in a decentralized and highly uncertain environment. Whether you can successfully adapt to this new situation will determine whether you survive or be eliminated by the market. Let's delve deeper and see if there is still a glimmer of hope in such a market. Altcoin Casino: How to Survive in the Fragmented Cryptocurrency Market For those who entered the crypto market in the past year or a year and a half, this market is undergoing a profound transformation. The 'shortcut' to profiting through centralized exchanges has now become increasingly complex. The market operates more like a casino than a traditional trading market, requiring investors to have unprecedented flexibility and acuity. The traditional 'buy and hold' strategy, which was once effective in the early cycles, is no longer applicable. Holding periods have become shorter and shorter, from weeks to even days (remember those old-timers telling us to just buy Altcoins at low prices and wait for the highs?). Behind this change is the constant emergence of new coins and new projects, each vying for market attention and capital, constantly challenging the position of existing projects. Even events traditionally seen as positive can have unexpected consequences. For example, Trump's launch of a highly anticipated Meme may attract a large number of new users to the crypto market, but it could also lead to a collapse in the value of many Altcoins. Usually, the beneficiaries are limited to Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), and related Meme coins. Many investors have learned a painful lesson - if their portfolio is not heavily weighted in BTC and SOL, they may suffer massive losses. Similar situations have occurred with the release of Berachain, which attracted a lot of attention and capital, but had an impact on the Abstract ecosystem. In this dynamic and unpredictable market, the wisest approach is to accept that volatility is the norm and recognize that as new coins, new chains, and new projects continue to emerge, this volatility may further intensify. Therefore, many investors are adjusting their strategies, increasing their holdings of BTC and stablecoins, while significantly reducing their long-term Altcoin positions. The market's focus has also shifted from 'long-term investing' in Altcoins to tactical 'short-term trading'. The goal is to avoid becoming the 'last believers' of those failed projects, watching their value go to zero. At the current stage, near the end of the cycle, the risk-reward ratio of buying coins other than BTC based on long-term investment logic may not be ideal. Although Altcoins may be near the bottom, the likelihood of most coins, NFTs, or ecosystems hitting new highs simultaneously is decreasing. The constant introduction of new coins dilutes the market's attention and capital, making it increasingly difficult for existing projects to rise again. The current cryptocurrency cycle is filled with unprecedented challenges, as a stronger sense of uncertainty pervades the market. This uncertainty stems from the fact that even the popular Altcoins, after experiencing significant declines, do not have enough confidence to confirm that they will rebound. Reviewing the cycles of 2017 and 2021, investors were usually confident in buying the dips of Altcoins, as long as their market capitalization (mcap) was not too low (usually below $100 million). The prevailing view at the time was that these coins would recover their value within the cycle, at least not completely disappear in the current cycle. Coins that gained early market attention often maintained their momentum and market position until the end of the cycle. However, this cycle is completely different (yes, indeed). The market is flooded with various narratives and sub-narratives, each vying for the attention of investors, but this attention is often fleeting. Investors are now more cautious about 'buying the dips' because the entire narrative of a coin can collapse at any time, rendering the investment worthless. Unlike the past cycles centered on a single narrative, the current market presents multiple narrative-driven mini-cycles, each with its own peaks and troughs. Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) are generally considered relatively safe choices, likely to eventually recover their value, but their potential returns may not be attractive to investors seeking high-multiple growth (after all, BTC has already risen 6x from the bottom, and SOL has risen 20x). The question is whether to allocate funds to areas such as AI cryptocurrencies, which have recently gained attention but have also fallen significantly from their historical highs, without clear signs of a return to their peaks. The high fragmentation of the market makes it difficult for investors to accurately identify and capture emerging trends. Cryptocurrencies have always been a speculative market since their inception, although past cycles have tried to legitimize it by emphasizing 'peer-reviewed blockchain technology', 'solid fundamentals', and 'real-world applications'. However, this cycle seems to have abandoned this pretense and embraced a more realistic view: everything depends on how to attract and maintain the market's attention. This trend has led to a significant shortening of the attention cycle of investors. The 'bull market cycle' that used to last one to two years is now compressed into just a few months, weeks, or even days. The current market appears to be experiencing a Meme super-cycle (or has it already ended?). However, even the most popular Memes have experienced significant declines from their peaks, making the rationale for investing in them even more questionable.

In the current crypto market, investors face "bag-holding risks" higher than ever before. In past cycles, when a coin experienced a similar decline, investors would typically view it as an opportunity to "buy the dips" as the likelihood of these coins rebounding was almost undisputed. However, the current issue is whether these coins can regain the market attention they once had. The market is now more inclined to support the leading Altcoins rather than the underperforming projects. Even if certain projects have strong fundamentals, without market hype, they struggle to gain favor.

Although MEME coins and AI projects have performed well in the current market, investors remain cautious about these trends as the shift in market focus is often rapid and unpredictable. This widespread uncertainty stems from the overwhelming choices investors face.

Typically, each market cycle goes through an initial phase of chaos and attention dispersion, followed by a stabilization as clear winners emerge. However, it is also possible that the market has undergone a fundamental change, and investors' attention spans have become increasingly short, preventing a single narrative from dominating for an extended period.

At the same time, macroeconomic factors are also profoundly shaping the current market landscape. In the past, loose monetary policies made investing relatively simple, as ample liquidity fueled speculative bubbles. However, in the current high-interest rate and tight liquidity environment, the market has become more challenging.

Investors' confidence in "buying the dips" has weakened, likely reflecting a broader economic reality. With an uncertain economic outlook, investors' risk appetite has declined significantly. There is also increasing debate about the traditional four-year cycle, with some predicting that the cycle may be extended. However, based on the current market performance, the four-year cycle appears to still exist, but with some notable changes compared to the past. For example, the current cycle's market performance has been relatively subdued: Bitcoin has only reached about 1.5 times the previous all-time high, while Ethereum has not even broken a new all-time high. This market performance is largely driven by specific events, such as Michael Saylor's support for Bitcoin and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, which have attracted institutional investors' attention. However, capital inflows outside the Bitcoin ecosystem have been very weak, with speculative capital flowing more into the short-lived MEME coins.

In the current market, the widespread speculative capital has almost disappeared, and the market lacks sufficient momentum to break new overall highs. Instead, capital is more circulating within the existing cryptocurrencies, exhibiting a "net neutral" state. Due to the lack of major liquidity providers, these scattered hot spots are unable to drive overall capital flows and struggle to attract large inflows of new investment.

The performance of this round of the crypto market cycle is significantly different from previous bull markets. This has prompted deep reflections on the fundamental nature of the crypto market cycle. The current market lacks a broad speculative frenzy, with returns concentrated on BTC, and capital circulating more within the crypto ecosystem. These phenomena suggest that the market is trying to adapt to an entirely new operating mode. The key factors that have historically driven bull markets, such as loose monetary policies and retail investor enthusiasm, no longer seem as prominent in the current environment. The long-awaited "alt season," where nearly all Altcoins experience rapid price increases, has yet to truly materialize.