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The Bitcoin market has fluctuated and plummeted amid multiple negative factors and market tug-of-war, exhibiting the characteristics of "rapid rise and rapid fall, bull-bear tug-of-war". The price has fluctuated from the high of $99,168 on February 6 to the low of $95,320 on February 10, repeatedly failing to break through the psychological barrier of $100,000. Although the technical analysis once showed bullish signals such as "Bollinger Band upper channel breakthrough" and "Fibonacci extension target of $166,000", the policy uncertainty of the Trump administration (repeated tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the crypto currency committee being a sham) coupled with the cooling of the Fed's rate cut expectations, the market sentiment is shifting from "eternal bull market" to "cautious wait-and-see".
It is worth noting that on February 7, BTC briefly surged to $100,154, but then plummeted due to panic selling triggered by the Ethereum Foundation's sell-off and rumors of the U.S. Department of Justice's plan to liquidate $6.5 billion in seized BTC. Traders are increasingly divided on the market outlook: some believe the current situation is a "deleveraging and healthy correction", with the weekly candlestick showing the main force accumulating, and the MACD green column returning suggesting a rebound; others are concerned that the "Trump effect" has been fully priced in, and the technical flag correction may become a "bull trap", with the possibility of a short-term drop to the $90,000 support level. The "rumor of the Trump family fund and ETH cutting losses" has also caused a rift in market trust in policy narratives, with some investors sarcastically referring to the "myth of getting rich overnight and the big thunder and small rain, which are actually the left and right hands of the same government".
Analyst DOM found an unprecedented "Doji" pattern on the BTC daily chart, which usually indicates market uncertainty, similar to the trend after the FTX collapse in November 2022. DOM said: "In the 15-year history of BTC, this is the first time three consecutive 'extreme Doji' candles have appeared, with the body part of each candle accounting for less than 0.05% of the entire candle range. This signals that the market is extremely undecided, indicating that a significant fluctuation is about to occur." Let's see what traders think about this.
@Crypto_Laowai: BTC's short-term key levels. Pressured by the yellow trend line. 4-hour resistance at $98,120, break above to see $102-103k. On pullback, look for $93,600 to capture liquidity. But whether it goes up directly or down first then up, $102-103k is likely to be touched in the near term.
@Patrade_Buer: BTC's trend view remains unchanged: weekly oscillation (representing plunder and then further upside); daily downtrend, currently in a downtrend with bears in control. Hourly level has the probability of upward plunder of liquidity, with liquidity and EQH liquidity currently being built above, currently biased towards upward liquidity capture. Upside targets need to be watched a bit, $99,700, $102,000, $106,000 H4 bearish OB. Here, the contract needs to see if it can give a retest to acquire the $965 FVG liquidity, and buy at the OB to accumulate at a better cost performance.
@Murphy_Chen: BTC's historical weekly line "death cross" followed by a rebound, the amplitude is generally around 15%-20%. If calculated at the current $97,000, the maximum rebound of 20% would be to $116,400, which just falls above the orange line but not reaching the red line. According to my previous article "Using the Extreme Deviation Band to Observe the Pricing Range of a Trend Cycle", this may be the limit position of the current trend rebound. In the context of "trend attenuation", there will be a rebound, but it may not reach the extreme position. I wonder if this is a coincidence, the mutual verification of on-chain data and K-line technology.
@Maoshu_CN: On February 10, data records show that Asian and European funds saw a slight outflow, while U.S. funds continued to inflow, and market activity is gradually recovering. On Monday, the market gradually regained momentum, with market cap slightly up, altcoin dominance slightly increased, BTC dominance slightly weakened, and ETH remained weak with its dominance also declining. Trading volume is still down compared to last Saturday, with the Asian and European markets being quiet on Monday, waiting for the U.S. market to open tonight to activate the market. Funds continue to flow into the market, with on-chain funds increasing by $1.1 billion to a total of $232.8 billion. USDT: official website data shows $141.618 billion, compared to last Saturday, Asian and European market funds saw a slight outflow, market activity increased, and some funds left the market after trading, indicating a temporary lack of confidence in the Asian and European markets on Monday. USDC: data website shows an increase of $209 million, with increased activity, and U.S. funds continue to inflow.
@Phyrex_Ni: The upward momentum of the U.S. stock market after the open is quite good, especially NVIDIA, which should have already emerged from the shadow of DeepSeek and achieved five consecutive gains, vigorously making up for the gap below. Trump's words have not yet helped the price of AI and cryptocurrencies, but this is a long-term thing, not something that can be said today and rise tomorrow, it also requires the cooperation and support of various departments. Many states in the U.S. have started to layout strategic reserves, and many policies have also begun to adjust, benefiting from this, and even the strategic reserves have not yet been truly implemented. So I think AI is a mirror, through which we can see the future of cryptocurrencies. These two tracks are currently supported by the U.S. government, and both the Democratic and Republican parties are unanimously supporting them. I really can't think of anything other than an economic recession that can fight against the government machine. But at least BTC has not seen a collapse, and investors still have enough patience.
Looking at the current data, the turnover of BTC on Monday is still very low, and a large number of investors are still in a wait-and-see state, and this state is more and more like the previous two times of the bear market, the definition of the bear market is that everyone does not want to buy or sell, they are all waiting for better opportunities, but for BTC, as long as the current support level does not break, the investor's mood will still be guaranteed.
The support between $93,000 and $98,000 is still very solid, and there are no signs of problems for the time being, and BTC has been fluctuating around $97,000 recently, which may not be a bad thing, as it will help the market after the weak hands are shaken out.
Data Analysis
The long positions in the futures market are chasing the price, and the rally led by the rise in futures is often unsustainable.
Although the data for ETH is not very good, the data for BTC is slightly more optimistic, at least BTC is still maintaining a net inflow state, with small-scale inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity, and investors' bullish sentiment on BTC is still stronger than that on ETH. And the only selling is 516 BTC from Grayscale's GBTC and Invesco, which is not much.
In fact, from the overall situation, the buying power for both BTC and ETH is not good enough without new positive news, and the buyer's market can only maintain very scattered, and when there is positive news, although the buying data is good temporarily, the user sentiment decays too fast, it is difficult to maintain a sustained bullish situation, the current liquidity should still be too poor.
The data of the 56th week of the BTC spot ETF in the US is also not friendly, compared to the 55th week, the net buying power of US investors is only 38%, a decrease of 62%, and the 55th week also decreased compared to the 54th week, so it can be clearly seen that the investor sentiment in the last three weeks has not entered the FOMO state, so the help to the price is relatively low.
However, it can still be seen that more investors are still expecting a better upward trend for BTC in the future, after all, the new US government still has strong support for cryptocurrencies.
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