Original author: Westie

Original compilation: TechFlow

Let's talk about the Memecoin cycle, putting aside practicality, long-term vision, and even the narrative. The core of this cycle is actually only one thing: how to get ahead.

Trigger points: ETF craze and the rise of Solana

The trigger point this time is not just ordinary market sentiment, but more specific events. At the end of 2023, the application for a Bitcoin ETF will release a signal that institutional funds are about to flood into the crypto market. Meanwhile, Solana has rebounded strongly after the FTX collapse, telling a story of recovery and rebuilding legitimacy.

In comparison, traditional altcoins seem too outdated. Many coins are burdened with the heavy baggage of the bear market, and those projects supported by venture capitalists, although they have roadmaps and whitepapers, their valuations often seem "artificially designed", more like exit strategies rather than exciting innovations.

Memecoins, however, bring a completely different experience: simple, direct, and fun. They are "anti-VC" tokens, without whitepapers, and even without websites. Just a Meme, a ticker, and a launch. Their appeal lies in their simplicity and high risk. It is precisely because traditional altcoins are too predictable that Memecoins have become the purest "high risk, high return" bet in the market.

If Bitcoin can double in value due to the ETF craze, and SOL can rise from the depths, then a dog coin with no practical use might surge 100 times. This is the starting point of this cycle: the optimistic sentiment of ETFs, the recovery of SOL, and the fatigue with VC-backed altcoins.

BONK: The first step in the race

Then, BONK emerged.

BONK is not complex, nor does it have a particularly outstanding Meme attribute. But it is the first token to seize this wave of energy. People saw its violent fluctuations, saw the profits it brought, and gradually formed an intuition: something is happening. This is different. This is fast.

Initially, "getting ahead" was not a conscious goal for people. It was more of an attitude of "this is volatile, maybe I can take a small bet." But BONK's performance - first explosive growth, then predictable fluctuations - gradually and imperceptibly defined the rules of this game.

Narrative shift: Absurdity rises from a limited Meme pool

The narrative has changed. People in the crypto circle have begun to realize: "Memecoin is a game, and the key to the game is to find the next BONK, but more interesting."

"More interesting" does not mean technological progress or team strength. "More interesting" means easier to spread. So how to do it? At this stage, the gameplay of Memecoin is still very primitive, and the choices for differentiation are actually pitifully few. There are no complex strategies, no carefully crafted narratives to refer to. In fact, the ready-made, internet-native Meme resources themselves are very limited. You are not choosing from thousands of options, but making choices from a few materials that can make people smile.

Among these limited choices, what is the most attractive? The answer is: absurdity.

In this context, "more interesting" is almost equivalent to "more absurd." Because in an immature Memecoin world, absurdity itself is a powerful signal. It can grab attention and spread quickly. More importantly, in a market where no one knows what a "good Memecoin" should be, humor and the feeling of instantly hitting the funny spot have become the strongest screening criteria.

And then, Dogwifhat (WIF) was born.

"Wif hat." A misspelled, meaningless Shiba Inu with a hat. This is the pinnacle of internet absurdity. For many people, the first reaction was to laugh out loud. This is its charm. This humor, this absurdity, conveyed a signal:

"This is new. This is unique. This is... early?"

The rules of the game have gradually become clear, even intuitively clear. It's not just about finding a Memecoin, but finding the one that already has the potential for virality before the actual outbreak. Capturing the current internet memes, internet jokes, and the fleeting sense of absurdity. And in those early stages, in that limited Meme pool, the coin that can make people laugh the loudest and the most absurdly often naturally becomes the winner.

To find such a coin, you have to get ahead.

The Memecoin hunting ground: The game of speed and manipulation

The gameplay has been updated very quickly. "Early" is no longer just about the time point after the project is launched, it's already too late after launch. The real "early" is before launch - before the public knows, before the hype explodes, before the price skyrockets.

So, tools like Photon and "memescope" have emerged. The game has become more tactical. Traders are soaking in memescope every day - Photon's new Memecoin listing page. The gameplay becomes: stare at memescope, refresh constantly, and buy in as soon as possible. Pure "early" optimization - competing in speed, reaction ability, and the endurance to stare at the screen for a long time.

The "memescope gameplay" seems fair - in theory, anyone with the tools and time can participate. But beneath the surface, a darker force is emerging: some "insiders" are manipulating behind the scenes, creating Memecoins and precisely controlling the core metrics that memescope traders rely on to make decisions.

These projects are not always naturally generated grassroots movements. In fact, more and more Memecoins are carefully designed as profit-making tools. The tricks of these insiders include:

• Creating Memecoins out of thin air: no real community or natural hype from the beginning.

• Manipulating data metrics: artificially inflating on-chain transaction data, creating false social media hype, and even manipulating the ranking systems of "trending" tokens to make them appear more popular than they actually are.

• Precisely targeting trader tools: knowing that memescope and similar tools have become the core of Memecoin trading, they design specific means to exploit the loopholes in these platforms.

• Hiring market makers: creating an illusion of "active trading" on the token launch, making the new coin look immediately hot on the charts.

• Collaborating with KOLs (key opinion leaders): paying influencers to "shill", creating a false impression that "everyone is buying".

• Deploying Twitter "bots": assembling a team of bots or paid accounts to frantically comment under the tweets of large crypto accounts, drowning the platforms with token-related information to create a false sense of hype.

Those traders staring at memescope truly feel they have won the "early" game, but in reality, they have always been one step behind those who truly control the rules of the game.

The two key points of the Memecoin game - absurdity becoming the core driver of viral spread, and insiders manipulating the "early" game to create exit liquidity - are reaching their final boss stage.

Fartcoin: The ultimate game of absurdity and attention

For those trying to create the "next WIF" - the next Memecoin that can quickly go viral - a key truth is gradually emerging: to get the public to buy your Memecoin, you must seize their fleeting attention. And in the world of Memecoins, attention has never been won by complex stories or technical promises, but by pure and undeniable visual impact.

Now, the definition of "early" has completely changed: not just speed, not just pure absurdity, but through careful planning, to create the ultimate attention-grabbing means of "extreme absurdity".

This is the moment when Fartcoin makes its grand entrance.

TechFlow. From the perspective of a Memecoin creator who wants to attract the masses, what could be better than launching a token called "Fartcoin"? This is not just absurd, but to the point that everyone instantly understands. The name itself is a conversation starter, a natural viral hit. It seems to be precisely designed to create the kind of sensational news that can cut through internet noise: "Can you believe people are throwing money at something this ridiculous!"

TechFlow has become the ultimate experiment in the attention economy of the Memecoin world. This is not just a regular token launch, but an intentional, even cynical attempt to turn absurdity into a attention-grabbing tool to attract the masses. It has become a stark and comical proof of concept: in the Memecoin game, especially when the goal is to achieve true virality and mainstream adoption, extreme absurdity is not just a desirable quality - it is the core marketing strategy, distilled to its purest and most provocative form.

Is there anything more ridiculous than TechFlow?

New Plays in the Internal Game and the Market

Building on the manipulation techniques of the memescope era, a deeper trend is emerging: pure animal Meme coins, despite their explosive past popularity, are starting to hit a bottleneck, and the market is becoming more rational and savvy.

The narrative needs a new direction, a play with a "legitimate" veneer. This is when "content-rich" Memes start to emerge - these tokens, while still essentially Memes, are imbued with a semblance of legitimacy through a plausible deniability. Thus, AI tokens become the new mainstream play. Suddenly, buying Memes is no longer just for a dog wearing a hat, but for "investing" in the future of artificial intelligence! This provides a seemingly reasonable rationale for the purchase, even though the rationale may be very fragile, but it goes beyond pure absurdity.

However, behind this thematic repackaging, the core mechanics of the game and the role of insiders have not changed. The real advantage still lies in information asymmetry. These insider groups have simply adapted quickly to the new play, using their early access to information to maintain their advantage in this new narrative. They know about the AI coin launch much earlier than others and continue to profit from this advantage.

Celebrity Memecoins: The Pinnacle of Absurdity and Manipulation

The Memecoin play has evolved to a new stage: the year of celebrity coins. Insiders have found that the most effective way to create viral spread and ensure someone bags and exits is to collaborate with celebrities with massive influence. These celebrities often have large fanbases but are largely ignorant of cryptocurrencies, making them "spokespeople" for the insiders to manipulate.

What's more interesting is that these behind-the-scenes puppeteers often disguise themselves as "high-level traders", hinting (or outright claiming) that their outsized profits come from their own skills, rather than information advantages. This narrative makes ordinary players even more dejected, as they find it increasingly difficult to get in on the "early" game, as if they're always a step behind.

The "internal game" is now nakedly on display, including:

• Becoming the issuer: creating tokens, controlling the narrative, using extreme absurdity or "legitimate-looking" stories to create viral spread. This is the ultimate early play, fully controlling the pace of propagation.

• Becoming an insider: finding token issuers with huge viral potential or seemingly real value, and getting in early before they're widely discussed on crypto Twitter. Information asymmetry on viral potential is their biggest advantage.

• Becoming an influencer: building your own fanbase, using your influence to get in early on those absurd or "legitimate" tokens, then amplifying the narrative, creating headlines, ensuring someone bags and exits.

After the trend of viral absurdity and issuance narrative control has escalated, TechFlow has demonstrated the ultimate power of absurdity. But then, TRUMP emerged.

TRUMP. The hottest Meme globally? Suddenly, even carefully orchestrated absurdity seems not enough. Who could possibly outshine Trump in terms of hype?

Imagine yourself as a Memecoin trader when TRUMP launches. Anyone paying attention can see this is a classic insider play. 80% of the token supply is transparently locked for insiders. On-chain data clearly shows the existence of token hoarders and pre-mint permissions. These should be warning signs, but they don't matter in the face of TRUMP.

Because this is Trump - the elected President of the United States. This is the Memecoin of Memecoins, the ultimate celebrity coin. Of course you'll buy it. It feels like a whole new set of rules. Even if the insider manipulation is obvious, for Trump, it no longer matters.

Then MELANIA was launched.

When MELANIA launched, the entire market seemed to suddenly lose its vitality. In the once-bustling club, everyone suddenly sobered up. The "internal game" that was already so apparent in TRUMP was fully exposed in MELANIA. The two operations were identical, but MELANIA's "naked money-grabbing" was even more transparent. The difference was that the Meme effect of TRUMP had briefly masked people's cynicism, while MELANIA had nothing left to cover it up.

In fact, this "internal game" had long been obvious, but before MELANIA, people chose to turn a blind eye. And now, with the arrival of MELANIA, the scam has been fully exposed, and the cycle has been broken.

TRUMP has also become an ultimate case study: it clearly demonstrates how the "internal game" can reach its peak. It is not just a Meme, but a political and cultural force, launched with the privilege and pre-ordained success aura of insiders.

Is there an "internal game" bigger and more transparent than TRUMP and MELANIA?

The 2021 Echo: The "Early" Cycle of Non-Fungible Tokens

Doesn't the entire Memecoin cycle sound familiar? Let's go back to 2021, the peak of the Non-Fungible Token (NFT) craze.

What was the catalyst then? The skyrocketing price of ETH, driven by the DeFi summer. NFTs became ETH's "high-risk, high-return play" - a bet that could potentially yield even higher returns.

Soon, the focus shifted to PFP (profile picture) projects. "Community" became a buzzword, but in reality, the core of the game was finding the next Bored Ape - a project that could quickly increase in value and cultural influence.

Just like Memecoins, people realized: the key to the game is "early". But in the NFT world, "early" means fighting for whitelists. Spamming Discord, interacting on Twitter, completing various tasks - the whitelist scramble became the memescope of the NFT world, with everyone desperately chasing pre-mint opportunities.

The pursuit of "early" kept escalating. People realized that the earliest way to participate was to become a creator. Soon, celebrities also started to flood in.

Steph Curry and Jimmy Fallon began flaunting million-dollar JPEGs, while Logan Paul openly scammed his fans. Who's next? The NFT space also seemed to have reached a peak driven by celebrities, and a sense of narrative fatigue began to set in.

Speaking of cycles changing... NELK, the team that marked the peak of the celebrity NFT craze in 2021, has just launched their own Memecoin - Fullsend. If this isn't a signal, what is?

The similarities are astonishing. Although the asset classes are different, the underlying game mechanics are completely identical: an endless pursuit of the "early", which ultimately leads to self-consumption. At a certain point, the game has nowhere to go; you need to completely reset this game.

The Absurd End: Resetting and Reflecting on the Cycle

As the Memecoin cycle gradually comes to an end, the echoes of the NFT craze still linger. We see tokens like LIBRA being launched, and people seem to be putting their entire portfolios on the line, just to try to recreate the glory of the TRUMP trade. This phenomenon is precisely what George Soros called the "twilight zone" in the market cycle - a stage where people continue to play the game, even though they no longer believe in it.

As Soros pointed out, the core feature of this stage is that "people continue to play the game, even though they no longer believe in it." The belief in the "early" magic is gradually eroding, but the habit of chasing Memecoin's skyrocketing prices is deeply rooted.

Soros also warned that "ultimately, a crossover or critical point will come, when the trend begins to reverse, the market sentiment reverses, thereby triggering a disastrous acceleration of the decline (8), which is what we call a crash."

At this point, we have to ask ourselves: Can this narrative be played out in new ways? Are there more levels to this game?

Will there be a more absurd Meme than Fartcoin?

Will there be a bigger and more transparent "inside game" than TRUMP and MELANIA?

The answer is likely negative. At least in this cycle, it's not possible.

The Memecoin cycle, defined by the endless pursuit of the "early", seems to have reached its end. It is driven by hype, absurdity, and the promise of the "early", but like all hype cycles, it is destined to self-destruct. When the underlying mechanics of the game are exposed and the illusion gradually fades, this pursuit of the "early" ultimately consumes itself.

However, the human desire for the "early" will not disappear. This psychology has already taken deep root in the culture of cryptocurrencies.

Perhaps this Memecoin cycle has ended, but that desire still exists. The game may very well come back, but with new rules, more absurd narratives, and attract new players, once again longing to be the one who discovers the "early" opportunity.

Friends, please take care.