Here is the English translation: ❶One of the reasons is that ➠ there is no good-natured person in this world who will distribute stocks at high levels during a sideways consolidation, and the longer the sideways consolidation lasts, the greater the cost for the main force. The chips are not distributed during the high-level sideways consolidation, because this will not stimulate the buying desire of the group at all. On the contrary, as time goes by, the group will receive more and more chips, so how to distribute them?

❷Distribution is usually in the sideways trading during a surge or after a plunge. There will be many people chasing the surge during the surge, and then the plunge will lock up these chips. Many people chasing the surge will be confused and can't make a move to sell at a loss. Then after the plunge, many people will look at the previous high, and this is also a stage for the main force to sell. Why is the top usually very steep? The downside is mainly a symmetrical Christmas tree? The front is support, and the back is the bait for shipment.

❸Since it is a market, there will of course be exceptions, but the exceptions are accidental. The accidental situation is that you don’t know how powerful a certain banker is and what unexpected ideas he has (for example, he wants to do something big but can’t do it), or the market encounters a black swan. For example, there were some copycat banks that were trading sideways at high levels, and finally, the banker went bankrupt... In addition, usually when encountering a black swan, the banker will go with the flow more than retail investors.

❹Please note that this is only one of the reasons. Any single factor can only be used as a reference factor, not as a determining factor. Multiple reference factors must be superimposed to serve as a determining factor, and it is also a matter of probability. I posted this indicator today because there are quite a lot of people asking about this. Whether from the perspective of human nature or practice, the probability that a high-level long-term sideways movement is the top is very small. In addition, is this top in 21 considered a high-level long-term sideways movement?

❺ I personally tend to think that Bitcoin in the first half of 21 will be a big up and down, not a sideways fluctuation. Of course, this is my definition. This is a matter of detail definition. There is no strict data definition, and there is no right or wrong. However, the definition is different, and the reference indicators are different, which requires everyone to pay attention to. In addition, what I value most are sentiment and liquidity indicators, which is one of the reasons why I was able to escape the top in May 21.