Weekly Review
This week from February 17th to February 24th, BTC reached a high of around $99,475 and a low of around $93,388, with a fluctuation range of about 6.53%.
Observing the coin distribution chart, there is a large amount of trading volume around the 95,000 level, which will provide certain support or pressure.
• Analysis:
1. Around 1.52 million BTC in the 60,000-68,000 range;
2. Around 2.75 million BTC in the 90,000-100,000 range;
• The probability of not falling below 87,000-91,000 in the short term is 60%;
• The probability of not breaking through 110,000-115,000 in the short term is 40%.
Important News
Economic News
1. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's January meeting showed that members felt it might be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing the reduction of the balance sheet until the debt ceiling issue is resolved.
2. Fed's Goolsbee: PCE inflation data is unlikely to be as alarming as CPI, and once inflation declines, interest rates can be lowered further.
3. Fed's Kocherlakota expects the January PCE inflation rate to be 2.4% (previous 2.6%) and the core PCE inflation rate to be 2.6% (previous 2.8%).
4. Fed's Bostic said: Despite significant uncertainty, the Fed should still be able to make two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year.
5. Fed's Goolsbee: PCE inflation data is unlikely to be as alarming as CPI, and once inflation declines, interest rates can be lowered further.
Crypto Ecosystem News
1. According to SoSovalue, twenty state-level administrative regions across the US are now initiating legislative procedures for BTC reserve-related legislation, with fifteen state bills already formally accepted by the House and entering the committee review stage, forming operationally viable legislative drafts.
2. The legislation allowing Utah to invest in BTC has been passed by the state Senate subcommittee and will now proceed to the second and third readings in the Senate, with a final vote.
3. The BTC reserve bill has passed the House, and if it is approved by the Senate, Utah's Republican Governor Spencer Cox only needs to sign the bill for BTC to become a reserve asset.
4. FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett said the SEC is very interested in staking and has even asked industry insiders to provide a detailed memo explaining different types of staking and their advantages, and the regulator is expected to soon issue guidance on staking, as it is a topic they are actively discussing.
5. QCP Capital said that since Trump took office, multiple ETF applications related to altcoins have been submitted to the SEC, and it is unclear whether this will provide a catalyst for Trump to position the US as a global cryptocurrency hub and pave the way for further ETF approvals by 2025.
6. In the options market, the delta-implied volatility has shifted to a bullish skew across all tenors, indicating that the market is preparing for the second phase of the bull market. With inflation concerns easing, the S&P 500 index hitting new highs, and the US dollar index falling to the 107 level, the macroeconomic backdrop seems to be increasingly supportive of risk assets.
7. According to The Wall Street Journal, the SEC has agreed to withdraw its lawsuit against Coinbase, which sought to regulate the company as a securities exchange, marking the end of the SEC's years of tough stance on the crypto market and potentially boosting the sentiment of cryptocurrencies previously accused of being securities.
8. Bybit's multi-signature address was hacked, resulting in the theft of approximately $1.429 billion worth of ETH (about 514,000 ETH). Bybit's CEO responded that "Bybit has the ability to pay, can bear this loss, has processed 70% of the withdrawals, and the peak of the bank run has passed".
· Long-term Insight: For observing our long-term situation; bull/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
· Medium-term Exploration: For analyzing what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we may face
· Short-term Observation: For analyzing the short-term market conditions; as well as the probability of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises
Long-term Insight
• Short-term speculator cost
• Total spot selling pressure
• High-weight selling pressure
• Proportion of long-term participants
The current price has fallen below the short-term speculator's cost, which may have caused the loss of most short-term speculators. In such cases, they may reduce selling or remain neutral due to psychological factors, as the selling pressure decreases and some buyers share the cost, providing some support.
Although the spot selling pressure has increased slightly, it is still at a low level compared to the past year.
The market does not have much substantial selling, and it should be due to psychological factors and the spread of sentiment.
The high-weight selling pressure is also gradually decreasing, approaching the low-level area.
The proportion of long-term participants has increased slightly, and long-term participants are relatively optimistic about the current stage of the market.
Medium-term Exploration
• BTC exchange net position change
• ETH exchange net position change
• Liquidity supply
• Network sentiment positivity
• Futures liquidation structure
The BTC exchange net position change still shows an accumulation trend. It is possible that the on-chain is gradually moving away from frequent BTC trading, and is currently more focused on accumulation.
Under the current conditions, the liquidity contained within the exchanges also needs to be considered.
The current risk may not be in the buyers who are hoarding BTC, but whether the liquidity is sufficient to support the market price.
The current accumulation state of ETH has slowed down, and there may be a certain potential selling pressure with the inflow of a certain amount of coins.
The current BTC liquidity is poor and is in a continuous downward process. The market situation may improve when the liquidity is better.
The network sentiment remains at a relatively high level, and the on-chain positivity may still be very high.
The current liquidation structure shows a relatively large proportion of long liquidations, and the market needs to stabilize until the current liquidation trend stops.
Short-term Observation
• Derivatives risk factor
• Options open interest ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Options implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• BTC exchange net position change
• ETH exchange net position change
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position change
• Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives Rating: The risk factor is in the red zone, and the derivatives risk is high.
Since the BTC high, the risk factor has entered the red zone for the second time, indicating that the liquidation risk for long positions in derivatives has increased significantly this week.
The put-call ratio is at a low level, and the trading volume is at a low level.
The derivatives trading volume has continued to decrease during the ongoing volatility, indicating a decrease in market activity.
The options implied volatility has not fluctuated too much in the short term.
Sentiment Status Rating: Neutral
The current market sentiment (blue line) and panic selling sentiment (orange line) are both at extremely low levels. The market is expected to remain in a volatile mode.
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure rating: BTC and ETH are in a state of large outflow accumulation.
BTC exchange net position continues to see large outflow accumulation.
ETH exchange net position continues to see large outflow accumulation.
There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of depletion, while stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
Current purchasing power is in a state of depletion.
Stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
On-chain transaction data rating:
There is buying interest at 93,000 and selling interest at 100,000.
There is buying interest around the 90,000-93,000 price range and selling interest around the 100,000-110,000 price range.
There is buying interest around the 90,000-93,000 price range and selling interest around the 100,000-110,000 price range.
There is buying interest around the 90,000-93,000 price range and selling interest around the 100,000-110,000 price range.
Weekly Summary:
News Summary:
1. The recovery rally was interrupted, but the real selling pressure did not come from hacker theft, but rather from the FTX compensation event.
2. The first phase of FTX compensation may continue until March 4, with funds of around $6.5-7 billion, and the next phase will be after May 30.
3. Macroscopically, the Federal Reserve's intention to cut interest rates seems to be gradually increasing, with two possible rate cuts this year, accompanied by a possible halt to balance sheet reduction.
4. Overall, the macroeconomic fundamentals for the future are still relatively favorable.
Long-term On-chain Insights:
1. The market has fallen below the short-term speculator's cost line, which may lead to reluctance to sell, further reducing market selling pressure;
2. The total spot selling pressure is still at a low level for the past year;
3. High-weight selling pressure is approaching a one-year low;
4. The proportion of long-term participants has increased slightly.
• Market Positioning:
There has been no substantial change on-chain, but rather a more sluggish and confused sentiment.
Medium-term On-chain Exploration:
1. BTC is in an accumulation rhythm;
2. ETH's accumulation trend has temporarily stagnated;
3. Liquidity supply is relatively weak;
4. Current on-chain sentiment is still relatively high;
5. Currently in a trend of long liquidation, waiting for stabilization.
• Market Positioning:
Hovering
Current liquidity is relatively weak, BTC remains relatively stable, and the risk may be tilted towards native sectors like ETH.
Short-term On-chain Observation:
1. The risk factor is in the red zone, with high derivative risk.
2. New active addresses are at a medium-low level.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The exchange net position overall shows BTC and ETH in a state of large outflow accumulation.
5. Global purchasing power is in a state of depletion, while stablecoin purchasing power is flat compared to last week.
6. On-chain transaction data shows buying interest at 93,000 and selling interest at 100,000.
7. The probability of a short-term drop not breaking below 87,000-91,000 is 60%, and the probability of a short-term rise not breaking above 110,000-115,000 is 40%.
• Market Positioning:
The current price level has very little new accumulation of chips on-chain, and the short-term holder's cost line is also stagnant around 92K, indicating that although there is no panic sentiment in the current market, the short-term market demand/positive sentiment has already entered an extremely low state. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate this week.
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