所有短期消息都利空，而所有长期消息都利好。

原文作者：Matt Hougan，Bitwise 首席投资官原文编译：Luffy，Foresight News去年 7 月，我曾撰写过一篇题为《<a href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/short-term-pain-long-term-gain" rel="nofollow">短期阵痛，长期收益</a>》的投资备忘录。当时，加密货币市场形势不佳。比特币在 2024 年 3 月上涨至 73000 美元上方，而到 7 月时已跌至约 55000 美元，回调幅度达 24% 。以太坊在同一时期下跌了 27% 。我当时写道，加密货币市场正面临一种奇特的状态。所有短期消息都利空，而所有长期消息都利好。从积极的方面来看，我看到了诸如 ETF 资金流入、比特币减半以及华盛顿态度转变等长期催化剂。从消极的方面来看，我看到了诸如 Mt. Gox 赔付以及政府出售比特币等短期挑战。我得出的结论是，短期负面因素与长期正面因素之间的这种矛盾，为长期投资者创造了一个绝佳的潜在机会。事实证明，这一判断很有先见之明。在我撰写那份备忘录后不久，比特币触底，随后一路飙升至 10 万美元。当前的市场形势与那时非常相似，短期负面因素与长期正面因素相互博弈。对于投资期限足够长的投资者来说，我认为这也是一个难得的机会。<h2>坏消息：Memecoin 热潮的终结</h2>首先，让我们来看看坏消息。当我在 2 月 25 日上午撰写这份备忘录时，加密货币市场正在大幅下挫。比特币下跌了 8% ，价格跌破 90000 美元，以太坊下跌了 10% ，Solana 下跌了 12% 。直接原因是上周末总部位于新加坡的加密货币交易所 Bybit 遭黑客攻击的后续影响。黑客使用了经典的网络钓鱼诈骗手段，从该交易所窃取了价值 15 亿美元的以太坊。尽管 Bybit 能够动用自身资金弥补所有客户的损失，但这次黑客攻击还是重创了加密市场，引发了一连串的强制平仓。然而，Bybit 遭黑客攻击并非孤立事件。在过去几周里，还发生了一系列与 Memecoin 相关的诈骗事件，包括：<ul><li>Libra 事件：阿根廷总统、加密货币爱好者哈维尔・米莱曾为一款名为 Libra 的 Memecoin 站台，结果发现这是一场涉及数十亿美元的骗局。</li><li>梅拉尼娅相关代币事件：与美国第一夫人梅拉尼娅・特朗普相关的 Memecoin 同样出了问题，让投资者损失了数十亿美元。</li><li>特朗普相关代币事件：在某种程度上，与特朗普总统相关的 Memecoin 也出现了类似情况。</li></ul>新闻报道称，Bybit 的黑客与朝鲜政府有关联，他们试图通过 Memecoin 平台清洗被盗的以太坊。Bybit 诈骗事件也有 Memecoin 方面的因素，后续很可能会面临监管调查。综合来看，这些事件很可能意味着近期 Memecoin 热潮的终结。虽然这可能会让 「严肃的」 加密货币投资者感到欣慰，但在过去一年里，Memecoin 一直是比特币之外加密货币领域最热门的板块。从加密生态中移除 Memecoin 活动将会产生影响，而这正是你今天看到的。<h2>好消息：有利的监管、机构投资者、稳定币热潮等等</h2>短期消息的影响终将结束。除了少数例外情况，Memecoin 将不再重要，事情就是这样。幸运的是，加密货币的长期前景并不依赖于 Memecoin。另一方面，我认为有许多长期趋势将持续数年，包括：<ul><li>有利的加密监管政策：美国华盛顿对加密货币的态度正发生重大转变，目前我们正处于这一转变的初期阶段。仅在过去几周内，我们就看到美国证券交易委员会（SEC）撤销了对 Coinbase 等公司的高调诉讼，立法者也围绕与稳定币和市场结构相关的有利于加密货币的法案达成了共识。这些发展将使加密货币能够进入主流领域，并在未来几年重塑金融格局。</li><li>机构采用：机构、政府和企业正大量购买比特币。今年到目前为止，投资者已向比特币 ETF 投入了 43 亿美元资金。我们预计到年底这一数字将达到 500 亿美元，未来几年还会有数千亿美元的资金流入。</li><li>稳定币：稳定币的资产管理规模已经达到了 2200 亿美元的历史新高，在过去一年中增长了近 50% 。但我们认为这只是一个开始。随着稳定币相关立法在国会推进，到 2027 年，稳定币市场规模可能会激增至 1 万亿美元。</li><li>去中心化金融的重生和代币化的兴起：去中心化金融应用正重新受到关注，借贷、交易、预测市场和衍生品等领域都日益活跃。与此同时，现实世界资产代币化的资产管理规模每天都在创下历史新高。</li></ul><h2>市场将走向何方？</h2>我认为这种分析框架很有帮助，因为在某种程度上，它让投资决策变得简单清晰。一方面，我们面临 Memecoin 的衰落和 Bybit 遭黑客攻击的不利情况；另一方面，则是有利于加密货币的监管、机构大规模采用、万亿美元规模的稳定币热潮、去中心化金融的重生以及代币化的兴起。这就是我所说的无需动脑就能做出的决策。不过，我要提醒的是，这次市场回调比我在 2024 年 7 月提到的那次更为严重。当时的回调是短暂的，是由一次性的资产出售推动的，而且这些出售一开始就意味着结束了。Memecoin 热潮规模很大，其带来的负面影响可能也会更大。可能需要几天、几周甚至几个月的时间才能消化这些影响。但我们的总体论断是相同的：短期消息利空，长期消息利好。当出现这种情况时，我更看好长期投资机会。

Bitwise：Meme热潮退去后，加密市场将走向何方？

All short-term news is bearish, while all long-term news is bullish.

Author: Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at BitwiseCompiled by: Luffy, Foresight NewsIn July last year, I wrote an investment memo titled '<a href="https://experts.bitwiseinvestments.com/cio-memos/short-term-pain-long-term-gain' rel='nofollow'>Short-term Pain, Long-term Gain</a>'. At the time, the cryptocurrency market was in a difficult situation. Bit reached over $73,000 in March 2024, but had fallen to around $55,000 by July, a 24% retracement. Ethereum fell 27% over the same period.I wrote then that the cryptocurrency market was in a peculiar state. All the short-term news was negative, while all the long-term news was positive.On the positive side, I saw long-term catalysts such as ETF inflows, Bit halvings, and a shift in Washington's attitude. On the negative side, I saw short-term challenges such as Mt. Gox payouts and government Bit sales.My conclusion was that this tension between short-term negatives and long-term positives created a great potential opportunity for long-term investors.As it turned out, this assessment was prescient. Shortly after I wrote that memo, Bit bottomed and then soared to $100,000.The current market situation is very similar, with short-term negatives and long-term positives battling it out. I believe this is another rare opportunity for investors with a long enough time horizon.<h2>Bad News: The End of the Memecoin Craze</h2>First, let's look at the bad news.As I write this memo on the morning of February 25th, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant sell-off. Bit is down 8%, trading below $90,000, Ethereum is down 10%, and Solana is down 12%.The immediate trigger is the fallout from a hack on the Singapore-based cryptocurrency exchange Bybit over the weekend. The hackers used a classic phishing scam to steal $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum from the exchange. While Bybit was able to use its own funds to make all customers whole, the hack has still dealt a blow to the crypto market, triggering a cascade of forced liquidations.However, the Bybit hack is not an isolated incident. Over the past few weeks, there have been a series of Memecoin-related scams, including:<ul><li>The Libra incident: Argentine President and crypto enthusiast Javier Milei had endorsed a Memecoin called Libra, which turned out to be a multi-billion dollar fraud.</li><li>The Melania Trump-related token incident: A Memecoin related to former First Lady Melania Trump also went awry, costing investors billions.</li><li>The Trump-related token incident: To some extent, Memecoins related to former President Trump have seen similar issues.</li></ul>Reports suggest the Bybit hackers are linked to the North Korean government, who were trying to launder the stolen Ethereum through Memecoin platforms. The Bybit scam also has Memecoin elements, and is likely to face regulatory scrutiny.Taken together, these events likely mark the end of the recent Memecoin craze.While this may be a relief for 'serious' cryptocurrency investors, Memecoins have been the hottest segment of the crypto space outside of Bit over the past year. Removing Memecoin activity from the crypto ecosystem will have an impact, which is what you're seeing today.<h2>Good News: Favorable Regulation, Institutional Adoption, Stablecoin Boom, and More</h2>The impact of the short-term news will eventually subside. Aside from a few exceptions, Memecoins will no longer be relevant - that's just how it is.Fortunately, the long-term prospects for cryptocurrency do not depend on Memecoins.In fact, I believe there are many long-term trends that will continue for years, including:<ul><li>Favorable crypto regulation: There is a major shift underway in Washington's attitude towards cryptocurrency. We're in the early stages of this shift. Just in the past few weeks, we've seen the SEC drop high-profile cases against companies like Coinbase, and lawmakers reach consensus on crypto-friendly legislation around stablecoins and market structure. These developments will enable crypto to enter the mainstream and reshape finance over the next few years.</li><li>Institutional adoption: Institutions, governments, and corporations are buying Bit in droves. Investors have poured $4.3 billion into Bit ETFs so far this year. We expect that number to reach $50 billion by year-end, with trillions more to come in the years ahead.</li><li>Stablecoins: The stablecoin asset management market has reached a record $220 billion, growing nearly 50% in the past year. But we believe this is just the beginning. With stablecoin legislation progressing in Congress, the stablecoin market could explode to $1 trillion by 2027.</li><li>The resurgence of DeFi and the rise of tokenization: Decentralized finance applications are regaining traction, with increasing activity in lending, trading, prediction markets, and derivatives. Meanwhile, the asset management of real-world asset tokenization is setting new records every day.</li></ul><h2>Where Will the Market Go From Here?</h2>I find this analytical framework helpful, as it in some ways simplifies the investment decision. On one hand, we face the negative of the Memecoin collapse and the Bybit hack; on the other, we have favorable crypto regulation, massive institutional adoption, a multi-trillion dollar stablecoin boom, the resurgence of DeFi, and the rise of tokenization.This is what I call a 'no-brainer' decision.However, I would caution that this market pullback is more severe than the one I referenced in July 2024. That was a brief, one-time asset sale, and the selling had a clear end in sight.The Memecoin craze was much larger in scale, so the negative impact may also be greater. It could take days, weeks, or even months to fully digest this.But our overall thesis remains the same: short-term news is negative, long-term news is positive. When that's the case, I'm bullish on the long-term investment opportunity.

Bitwise: Where will the crypto market go after the meme craze subsides?

The text attempts to clarify the causes of the current downward trend in cryptocurrencies, and to analyze the necessary conditions for the market to regain a bullish sentiment.

The crypto market plummeted, and more than 300,000 people were liquidated: What are the core causes?

The cryptocurrency market's liquidity has not suddenly disappeared. Since last Friday morning, the crypto market has evaporated 3,250 <Bit>. The reasons are complex, including the <Bybit> hacking incident, the weakness of Ethereum, and the volatility of the stock market returning to normal. Especially in the context of reduced liquidity, the cryptocurrency market has lost some of its momentum. Although the market has corrected, this does not mean that a long-term bear market has arrived. Technical corrections are healthy, and the cryptocurrency market still needs liquidity to continue thriving.

Disappearing liquidity: analyzing the multiple factors behind the decline of the crypto market

Here is the English translation:

Moderator:
· Haseeb Qureshi, Managing Partner at Dragonfly
· Robert Leshner, CEO and Co-founder of Superstate
· Tarun Chitra, Managing Partner at Robot Ventures
· Tom Schmidt, General Partner at Dragonfly

Broadcast date: February 24, 2025

Key points summary
The discussion in this episode includes:
1. Bybit hack incident:
· By...

Bitwise: Where will the crypto market go after the meme craze subsides?

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