Last week, cryptocurrency assets were clearly affected by news such as concerns about the US economic recession. On March 5, the BTC price pulled back slightly, reaching a high of $92,810.64, with a single-day increase of 3.81%. After March 6, affected by the first White House Crypto Summit and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, market sentiment became extremely panicked, and investors' short-term risk aversion sentiment was obvious, causing the BTC price to plummet, touching a low of $77,459.91 on March 10, with a weekly maximum decline of 16.53%.
Affected by the outflow of $719 million from the BTC spot ETF last week, the BTC price K-line presented a long black candlestick, and the market selling pressure was relatively heavy. Currently, the BTC price has recovered to around $80,000, and a short-term bottom formation signal has formed near the low of $76,606, but it is still in a downward trend and has not shown a clear reversal signal. ETH presented an overall downward trend last week, and the current price is stable around $1,800, with a maximum weekly decline of 21.97% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of 14:30 on March 11).
Due to Trump's statement in a news interview on the 9th that the economy is in a "transition period", investors' concerns about his policies potentially leading to an economic slowdown have intensified, and the three major US stock indexes have been hit and declined. As of the close on March 10, the S&P 500 index fell more than 2%, the largest single-day decline since 2022, the Nasdaq index fell more than 4% at noon, the Dow Jones index fell 1,100 points at one point, and the "fear index" VIX surged nearly 20%.
Market Analysis
The crypto market is under pressure, with capital outflows and macroeconomic policies affecting price trends
As of March 10, the crypto market has given back most of the gains after Trump announced the US crypto strategic reserve, with the total market capitalization falling 14.7% in seven days to $2.7 trillion. The market trend has been affected by multiple factors, including Trump's comments on trade tariffs, budget cuts, and other policies, with investors concerned about the short-term economic impact of these policies. According to a CoinShares report, digital asset investment products have seen capital outflows for four consecutive weeks, totaling $4.75 billion, of which BTC saw an outflow of $756 million last week, causing total assets under management (AUM) to drop to $142 billion, the lowest level since November 2024.
Under the dual impact of capital outflows and macroeconomic policies, market sentiment has become cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index falling to 10. As a result, BTC had a maximum weekly decline of 16.53%, ETH fell below $2,000, and SOL fell 7.2%. The scale of liquidations in the derivatives market has expanded, with CoinShares data on March 10 showing a total of $650 million in liquidations within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for $596 million.
Trump's remarks exacerbate market concerns, with both stock and crypto markets declining
As of the market close on March 10, the US stock market experienced a significant decline, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7%, the Nasdaq index falling 4%, and the Dow Jones index initially closing down 2%. Stocks of technology companies such as Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia suffered heavy losses, with Tesla falling 15.4% and Apple and Nvidia falling nearly 5%, reflecting investors' rising concerns about an economic recession. The crypto market was also dragged down, with BTC falling below $80,000 and ETH retreating to $1,800, with the overall market capitalization declining nearly 4%.
This downward trend is mainly due to the remarks of Trump and US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Last week, Yellen and Trump both stated that the US economy is in a "transition period" and did not rule out the possibility of a short-term recession.
As risk aversion sentiment heats up, US economic data and policy direction in the coming months will be key factors in determining market trends.
Signs of economic slowdown may prompt the Fed to turn dovish, boosting BTC and risk assets
The non-farm payroll data released on March 7 showed that the US added only 151,000 jobs, lower than the expected 170,000, fueling market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Nexo analysts believe that rate cuts could boost global stock and cryptocurrency markets. However, inflation risks such as tariffs and supply chain issues may still make the Fed cautious.
The derivatives market is showing increasingly bearish sentiment, especially as BTC's correlation with US stocks has increased. QCP Capital pointed out that the key short-term support level for BTC is $80,000, and the market is still affected by uncertainty. The Fed is expected to make a rate cut decision at its June meeting.
The consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) to be released this week will further impact market direction.
ETH price breaks through key support, market sentiment weakens
As of March 10, ETH price has fallen nearly 21% in the past week, the largest weekly decline since November 2022.
According to TradingView data, the price has broken through the $2,100 range that has supported it multiple times, and has also broken through the key upward trend line, indicating that buying momentum has weakened and selling pressure has gained the upper hand. Going forward, ETH's support level may be near the lows of September-October 2023, around $1,500.
Market Highlights
Trump hosts Crypto Industry Summit, no substantive policy documents released
On March 7, US President Trump hosted the first Crypto Industry Summit at the White House, bringing together representatives from regulatory agencies such as the Treasury Department and crypto industry leaders for a closed-door discussion. Although the event claimed to "define the direction of crypto regulation for the next four years", no substantive policy documents were released.
At the summit, Trump announced that the stablecoin legislation will be delayed, with the target set to be completed before the Congressional recess in August 2025, four months later than originally planned. US Treasury Secretary Yellen also stated that the government will end the regulatory crackdown on digital assets and actively promote stablecoin policies to maintain the US's position as a global reserve currency.
However, the summit did not address key issues such as the SEC's classification of ETH as a security, the coordination mechanism for state-level BTC reserve laws, and the tax treatment of crypto miners. Trump and his team did not clearly announce a specific timetable or roadmap for the legal framework of the crypto industry.
Texas establishes a BTC reserve fund, becoming the first US government-managed crypto fund
On March 9, Texas officially passed SB 21, formally establishing a BTC reserve fund, making it the first US state to manage a government-run crypto fund. According to the plan, the fund will hold BTC and other top cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization of over $500 billion, and will be supervised and guided by a newly established advisory board.
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