During the online communication last week, a friend asked the following question:

For an investor who does not have a firm grasp, when hearing two completely opposite voices from two channels with completely different opinions, how should they handle it?

For example, one opinion believes that the probability of witnessing a bull market in the crypto ecosystem in the short term (such as by the end of this year) is decreasing; while the other opinion believes that we still have a very high chance of witnessing a violent bull market.

In this case, I would still strongly suggest that you first develop the ability to think independently, form your own judgment, and prepare plans to deal with different results.

But if you currently lack this ability and are still undecided on whether to buy or not, how should you handle it?

My approach is to prioritize risk aversion over profit-making. In terms of operation, it is to restrain myself and not buy.

The biggest "loss" of not buying is simply not making money; but buying blindly will 100% result in losses, and if you add leverage on a whim, you may even lose your entire assets.

For investors who are temporarily unable to form their own independent judgment (including my former self), in my experience, blind buying is a common practice, and the resulting losses are basically a predetermined outcome.

So don't buy.

But what if it goes up later?

If it goes up, then it goes up, but this opportunity obviously does not belong to investors in this situation.

As long as we firmly believe that there are always opportunities in the investment field, our mindset will be much calmer, and we won't be too concerned about "what if we miss this opportunity".

Reflecting on my own experience, I found that I often lost money because of blind buying. So now when I use large sums of money, I will be more cautious and pay more attention to restraining myself.

I remember a friend also asked what kind of DCA price they should set if the market continues to decline and the bear market becomes more severe.

This market situation has reached this point, and it is the first time I have encountered it, and I believe many readers are also encountering it for the first time, and at least they, like me, have not sold any of their Bitcoin.

Although we have not had this experience before, I think we can face this situation with a more calm attitude.

I remember in an article last year, I shared a quote from an interview with Lin Yuan. I now recall the words he said in that interview.

The interviewer asked Lin Yuan about his views on the US stock market.

His response was very calm, essentially saying:

He has no particular views on the US stock market, whether it goes up or down, it doesn't matter to him. He bought US stocks before 2015, but stopped buying them in 2015, and hasn't bought or sold since then, so he doesn't pay much attention to it.

Looking back at the performance of the US stock market, we can see how low the prices were in 2015. Lin Yuan held these assets at such a low cost, so he can face the subsequent ups and downs, even turbulence, with complete calm.

I believe the industry's constant surprise and alarm over the fluctuations in the US stock market can be ignored by Lin Yuan.

Using this approach to evaluate our current situation, we can also calmly face the fluctuations in Bitcoin.

I've shared in my article that I set my DCA price at $35,000. Using $35,000 as the cost basis to measure the current fluctuations in Bitcoin, is the difference between $100,000 and $80,000 significant to us?

Not really, they are both more than double, just one is a little more and the other a little less.

Since the difference is not significant, and we already have positions, as long as the money we use does not affect our lives, I don't think we need to rush to buy more.

I haven't decided on a suitable DCA price yet, but I think I won't easily DCA unless Bitcoin drops to a price that really appeals to me.

So we really don't need to pay too much attention to Bitcoin, no need to watch the market anxiously every day or nervously guess the trend. We can completely spend this time and energy on other aspects, such as learning more, thinking more, and quickly developing our independent thinking ability to improve our cognition.