1. Market Observation
Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC
Bitcoin ended the week with a green candle, with BTC rebounding nearly 10 points from the low of $76,600. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said it is currently difficult to judge whether Bitcoin will recover its upward trend in the short term, and suggested closing short positions at the current stage. He pointed out that Bitcoin may need to go through a consolidation period of up to 8 months. The market is currently in a wait-and-see attitude, and the ETF market lacks the motivation to "buy on dips". Most ETF capital inflows come from arbitrage-driven hedge funds, and the persistently low funding rate has also suppressed the willingness to further deploy capital.
Bitfinex analysts believe that the current adjustment is a normal "liquidation" behavior. Although multiple technical indicators have turned bearish, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still an important factor affecting the price. Due to the high correlation between Bitcoin and the traditional financial market, its trend may need to synchronize with the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index) to find a bottom. He pointed out that the $72,000 to $73,000 range constitutes a key support area, but Bitcoin's next move will be mainly driven by macroeconomic factors such as global bond yields and stock market trends. Although the impact of the trade war has been digested to a certain extent by the market, the continued economic pressure may further dampen market sentiment. It is worth noting that based on historical seasonal patterns, economist Timothy Peterson predicts that Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high before June, with a median target price of $126,000.
Economist Peter Schiff, however, warned that a 12% drop in the Nasdaq index may signal that Bitcoin could face an even bigger decline. He analyzed that if the Nasdaq enters a bear market and falls 40%, Bitcoin's price could drop to $20,000. In contrast, gold has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq and has risen 13% since December 16, 2023.
In terms of market dynamics, a recent poll by Data For Progress shows that 51% of American voters oppose the government including crypto-assets in strategic reserves. Meanwhile, the Lazarus Group hacker organization now holds 13,562 Bitcoins, making North Korea the third largest Bitcoin-holding country entity globally. On the other hand, CZ's weekend spending of BNB to buy TST and mubarak may lead to a recovery in the BNB chain market, and GMGN data shows that in the past 24 hours, 7 Meme coin projects have a market cap exceeding $1 million, with mubarak's market cap reaching nearly $150 million.
From March 17 to 23, the world's major central banks will face a closely watched "Super Week", with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and others scheduled to hold monetary policy meetings. The market generally expects central banks to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors need to closely monitor central banks' assessments of the economic outlook. Particularly against the backdrop of uncertainty over Trump's trade policies, central bank attitudes could have a significant impact on market sentiment.
2. Key Data (as of March 17, 13:30 HKT)
Bitcoin: $83,149.42 (-11.15% YTD), daily spot trading volume $24.523 billion
Ethereum: $1,895.97 (-43.22% YTD), daily spot trading volume $10.533 billion
Fear & Greed Index: 32 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.48 Gwei
Market Dominance: BTC 60.77%, ETH 8.4%
Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, STMX, VANA
24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 0.998
Sector Performance: Crypto market sectors generally declined, CeFi sector up 2.71%, RWA sector up 0.72%
24-Hour Liquidation Data: Global total of 94,553 liquidations, with $257 million in total value liquidated, including $95.26 million in BTC and $44.77 million in ETH
3. ETF Flows (as of March 14 EST)
Bitcoin ETF: -$68.41 million
Ethereum ETF: -$35.30 million
4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)
Nvidia's GTC conference, until March 21. (March 17)
US February Retail Sales MoM (March 17 20:30)
Actual: Unpublished / Prior: -0.90% / Expected: 0.6%
Bank of Japan target rate until March 19. (March 19)
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivers keynote. (March 19 01:00)
US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10K) (March 19 22:30)
Actual: Unpublished / Prior: 144.8 / Expected: Unpublished
FOMC releases rate decision and economic projections. (March 20 02:00)
US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Upper Bound) (March 20 02:00)
Actual: Unpublished / Prior: 4.50% / Expected: 4.5%
Fed Chair Powell holds monetary policy press conference. (March 20 02:30)
Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (March 20 20:00)
Actual: Unpublished / Prior: 4.50% / Expected: 4.5%
US Initial Jobless Claims (10K) (March 20 20:30)
Actual: Unpublished / Prior: 22 / Expected: 22.5
5. Hot News
Data: Tokens Like MRS, FTN, QAI to Face Large Unlocks, with MRS Unlock Worth About $97.4 Million
Golden Ten: Crypto Rumors That Trump May Use Sovereign Wealth Fund to Buy BTC
US Treasury Secretary: Can't Guarantee US Won't Fall Into Recession
Analyst: Bull Market May Return in June, BTC Median Target Price Seen Reaching $126,000
CZ Appears to Respond to Buying TST and mubarak: "Just Testing Something on the Weekend"
Address Possibly Belonging to DFG Founder Has Accumulated $18.68 Million Worth of UNI and MKR
Pakistan Establishes Crypto Assets Committee to Regulate Blockchain and Digital Assets
The Trump family's crypto project WLFI bought $2 million worth of AVAX and MNT 2 hours ago
The cumulative net inflow of the US spot BTC ETF has dropped to the lowest level since January 2
Telegram founder Pavel Durov was allowed to leave France for Dubai, and TON rose 20%
Binance Alpha launched mubarak
10x Research: BTC is "very likely" to consolidate for another 8 months
