The 4-year bull-bear cycle in the crypto market has been broken:
- BTC has been dominated by US capital, especially after the launch of ETFs, its trend has become completely aligned with the US stock market, similar to large-cap value stocks in the tech sector, and this correction may last throughout the first half of the year.
- Altcoins are like junk stocks in the US stock market, completely affected by monetary policy, with a trend similar to the second half of 2019, in the late stage of the Fed's QT, experiencing a continuous downward trend.
- The penetration of international capital has made the impact of halving on the crypto market negligible, and the 4-year cycle has been broken. The US monetary policy dominates the trend of the crypto market, BTC is similar to large-cap tech stocks, and Altcoins are like junk stocks, under a neutral interest rate environment, value stocks are at high levels, while junk stocks hit new lows, only during a period of massive liquidity injection will junk stocks see a significant rebound.
When asked about the long-term trend of Bitcoin!
Hayes is optimistic about the long-term trend of Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin will continue to rise, and may even break through $250,000 by the end of 2025. He pointed out that money printing will be the most direct entry signal. He believes:
Governments around the world will eventually restart money printing, which will be beneficial to Bitcoin. Policies such as America First and the reshoring of national supply chains will drive up inflation, forcing governments to resort to money printing to address it.
In times of market turmoil, governments usually resort to money printing to rescue the market, and Bitcoin will become the best hedge asset.
So how about the future trend of Ethereum?
Standard Chartered Bank has recently significantly lowered its 2025 price forecast for Ethereum (ETH), reducing its target from $10,000 to $4,000. The report points out that the main reason is the structural changes in the Ethereum ecosystem, especially the rise of the second-layer solution Base. Base has already transferred $50 billion in market value from Ethereum by extracting excess profits from Ethereum. Due to these changes, Ethereum's revenue model has changed, affecting its market performance.
Furthermore, Kendrick believes that while Ethereum's reform measures are necessary, they have also damaged its value to some extent. For example, The Merge has eliminated Ethereum's unique position as a smart contract platform, and the introduction of second-layer solutions has reduced Ethereum's revenue streams.
Nevertheless, Kendrick still predicts that Ethereum's price will reach $7,500 by 2028, but the ETH/BTC ratio may continue to decline in the coming years. If Ethereum cannot solve its cost structure and market positioning issues, ETH will continue to lag behind Bitcoin.
In the medium to long term, with the growth of tokenized assets and the upcoming technical upgrades (such as the Pectra upgrade in 2025), Ethereum still has certain growth potential. However, with intensified market competition, if Ethereum cannot reshape its value capture mechanism, the challenges it faces will still be severe. Investors should cautiously adjust their short-term expectations for Ethereum.
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