Over the past week, the BTC price has been consolidating in the range of $82,000 to $83,000 in the short term. On March 12, the BTC price opened at $82,932.99, and closed at $84,010.03 on March 14, with a maximum weekly range of 6.71%. Affected by geopolitical factors, the current BTC price is hovering around $83,000, slightly rebounding from last week, but BTC price faces strong resistance between $84,000 and $85,000, limiting the upside space. Like BTC, ETH was also in a sideways adjustment phase last week, with the current price hovering around $1,890, and receiving support multiple times, with a maximum weekly range of 7.58% (the above data is from Binance spot, real-time data as of 3:00 pm on March 18).
Affected by the release of the new CPI data in the US and the signing of a 30-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, the US stock market was able to take a breather. As of the close on the 17th, the three major US stock indexes all rebounded slightly. Among them, the S&P 500 index fell into the adjustment area (with a maximum decline of more than 10%) on the 13th, but there was still buying demand in the market, and large-cap tech stocks outperformed the broader market. The US dollar weakened significantly, with the euro rising 0.4% against the US dollar.
Market Analysis
Weak rebound in US stocks, increased volatility, gold and fixed-income assets are the main beneficiaries
Last week, the global asset market experienced violent fluctuations, and market sentiment was once depressed, but technical indicators showed extreme oversold conditions, leading to a rebound of more than 2% in the US stock market on March 13 and 14. The main supporting factors include the elimination of the risk of a US government shutdown, the absence of new tariffs or geopolitical risks, and the repair of the oversold condition of the US stock market. However, trading volume is still low, limiting the momentum of the rebound.
According to a report from Bloomberg, the S&P 500 (SPX) index fell more than 10% in 16 days, indicating that the pace of market adjustment has accelerated. JPMorgan pointed out that the current adjustment amplitude is 9.5%, which is relatively small, implying a 33% probability of an economic recession. However, Goldman Sachs has lowered its GDP growth forecast for the US in 2025 to 1.7%, indicating that the economic outlook is still under pressure, and some hedge funds have recently experienced drawdowns.
On the other hand, gold and fixed-income assets have become the main beneficiaries in the face of market uncertainty. The cryptocurrency market sentiment is cold, and according to eMerge Engine data, ETH has continued to be weak, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 48%. Overall, the market still faces uncertainty, especially the divergence in expectations for future economic growth and policy direction. Investors need to pay attention to macroeconomic data and policy changes, maintain a cautious attitude, and market volatility may continue.
Gold breaks historical high, BTC may face short-term consolidation
On March 15, COMEX gold broke through $3,000 for the first time, hitting a new historical high of $3,004.86. UBS research report expects that the gold price will break through $3,200/oz by 2025. The reasons are the continued risk aversion sentiment in the market, macroeconomic uncertainty, the deterioration of the US fiscal deficit, and international geopolitical risks, all of which will continue to support the upward trend of gold prices.
At the same time, the 2-year US Treasury yield rose 0.7%, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 0.37%, indicating that some funds have also started to withdraw from US Treasuries and buy the dips in the stock market. As the US stock market has entered a correction phase, BTC, affected by the US stock adjustment and the breakthrough of the gold key psychological level, may enter a short-term consolidation.
Reduced stablecoin inflows, lack of market rebound momentum
According to eMerge Engine data on March 17, the scale of dual-channel supply inflows has decreased significantly, with a total inflow of $237 million, specifically showing a $842 million outflow from the BTC Spot ETF, a $184 million outflow from the ETH Spot ETF, and a $1.264 billion inflow of stablecoins.
Although stablecoin inflows have decreased, and ETF channel outflows have increased, the inflow of existing capital has allowed the BTC price to rebound to $83,000. However, this rebound is mainly driven by the buy the dips behavior of a small amount of capital, and the current lack of capital flow is not enough to become the main force for a market reversal.
US Senate passes stablecoin regulation bill: algorithmic stablecoins face a two-year ban
On March 13, the US Senate Banking Committee passed a stablecoin regulation bill, bringing a landmark regulatory framework to the crypto market. The market is generally optimistic about the compliance prospects of mainstream stablecoins such as USDT and USDC. However, the bill imposes a two-year ban on "stablecoins that rely solely on self-created digital assets as collateral" (such as algorithmic stablecoins), and requires the Treasury Department to study their risks.
This ban has raised widespread concern about the future development of algorithmic stablecoins. The ban is mainly to prevent systemic risks, improve market transparency, and protect investors, but it also leaves room for adjustment for mixed-model projects. The results of the Treasury Department's research will determine whether these projects can continue to develop, and the market uncertainty is thus exacerbated.
Macroeconomic Dynamics
US February CPI slightly lower than expected, consumer confidence declines
On March 12, the US released the latest CPI data, with the unadjusted CPI for February rising 2.8% year-on-year, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. This represents a slowdown in inflation, easing the market panic caused by last week's employment data, and the market sentiment has turned moderate.
However, the preliminary data on the consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan on March 14 showed the opposite trend. The consumer confidence index fell to 57.9, far lower than the market expectation of 63.1 and significantly lower than the previous value of 64.7. At the same time, the one-year inflation rate expectation rose to 4.9%, exceeding the expected 4.2% and higher than the previous 4.3%. This indicates that due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration's tariff policy, US consumers' concerns about the economic outlook have intensified, and the market sentiment is under pressure.
EU retaliatory tariffs may trigger a BTC correction
On March 12, the European Commission announced that it will impose retaliatory tariffs on $280 billion worth of US goods starting in April, in response to the 25% tariffs imposed by the US on imported steel and aluminum. The latest EU retaliatory tariffs have exacerbated the uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment, which may lead to increased volatility in BTC prices. This move may trigger new trade war concerns and market volatility in the short term.
Analyst Shaohua believes: "The implementation of retaliatory tariffs is not a positive signal, which may lead to a BTC price correction from $83,855 to the key support level of $75,000. A short-term pullback to below $72,000 in the current bull market cycle can be seen as a 'macroeconomic adjustment', after which BTC still has the potential to continue its upward trend."
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