Odaily星球日报讯 美联储传声筒 Nick Timiraos 表示，央行降息可能基于“好消息”或“坏消息”，但由于新的通胀风险，“好消息”降息的窗口正在缩小，而美联储的最新经济预测点阵图（Dots）可能未能准确反映这一变化趋势。 分析师预计，在未来六个月内，美联储可能会保持观望，并不会采取太多行动。

Odaily星球日报讯 美联储传声筒 Nick Timiraos 表示，央行降息可能基于“好消息”或“坏消息”，但由于新的通胀风险，“好消息”降息的窗口正在缩小，而美联储的最新经济预测点阵图（Dots）可能未能准确反映这一变化趋势。分析师预计，在未来六个月内，美联储可能会保持观望，并不会采取太多行动。

美联储传声筒：美联储或在未来六个月内按兵不动

Odaily News reported that Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said the central bank's rate cuts could be based on "good news" or "bad news", but due to new inflation risks, the "good news" rate cut window is narrowing, and the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast dot plot (Dots) may not accurately reflect this changing trend. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold and take little action in the next six months.

Odaily Odaily News reported that Federal Reserve mouthpiece Nick Timiraos said the central bank's rate cuts could be based on "good news" or "bad news", but due to new inflation risks, the "good news" rate cut window is narrowing, and the Federal Reserve's latest economic forecast dot plot (Dots) may not accurately reflect this changing trend. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to remain on hold and take little action in the next six months.

Fed mouthpiece: Fed may remain on hold for the next six months

According to the CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 98%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 80.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 19.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 0.4%.

There is a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this week

Odaily reports that in its latest global economic outlook, Fitch forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend, and also lower than 2.9% in 2024. Fitch has also revised down its US economic growth forecast from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and its 2026 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%. Fitch said that tariff hikes will lead to higher consumer prices in the US, reducing real wages, increasing business costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause a 1% rise in US near-term inflation, and believes the Fed will delay further easing until Q4 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates only once this year, but with the economic slowdown and tariff levels stabilizing, we expect three more rate cuts in 2026. (Jinshi)

Fitch: Fed expected to cut rates only once this year

Odaily Odaily reports that Lazard's chief market strategist Templar said that due to inflation risks, Lazard still expects the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates by 2025. He said that Lazard's view differs significantly from the market consensus, which generally believes that there may be three rate cuts this year. Templar said: "My view is at odds with the consensus because I expect US tariffs to expand in scope and scale by 2025, driving up inflation." He said that a renewed acceleration of inflation does not necessarily lead to rate hikes, but rising price pressures may prevent the Federal Reserve from easing policy even as the unemployment rate rises. (<金十>)

Fed mouthpiece: Fed may remain on hold for the next six months

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