I. Current Situation: The Contradiction between the Outbreak of MEME Projects on the BSC Chain and Market Differentiation

1. The Short-term Frenzy of MEME Projects

- The Myth of the Soaring TST and CaptainBNB: MEME tokens on the BSC chain have continuously attracted speculative capital, such as the test token TST mentioned by CZ, whose market capitalization once soared to $41 million due to community hype, and CaptainBNB surged over 13,000% within 6 hours of its launch. These projects, relying on the "zero value support + social media viral" model, have become the focus of retail investors' pursuit.

- Speculation Logic Dominates: Market funds have flowed from Bitcoin, Layer2 and other mainstream tracks to MEME coins, reflecting investors' short-term gaming mentality during the period of policy uncertainty.

2. The Expectation Gap of Trump's Policies

- The Bubble and Controversy of TRUMP Coin: The TRUMP coin issued by the Trump family once had a market value of over $12 billion, but was later accused of being a "disguised corruption tool", and the "First Lady Coin" issued by his wife Melania further diverted market funds, leading to a sharp price decline.

- Regulatory Relaxation Did Not Meet Expectations: Although Trump promised to replace the SEC chairman and promote the Bitcoin strategic reserve, the policy implementation has been slow, and the market's optimism about "deregulation" has gradually faded.

II. The Core Contradictions Behind the Cold Market

1. The Temporary Nature of Liquidity Release and the Imbalance of Market Structure

- The Limitations of TGA Liquidity Injection: The U.S. Treasury Department released about $150-250 billion in liquidity through the TGA account, driving a short-term rise in risk assets, but such operations are temporary and cannot support a long-term bull market.

- "Precise Reallocation" of Funds: Institutional funds are concentrated in Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT), while the Altcoin market lacks incremental funds, and the MEME frenzy is more of an internal rotation of existing funds.

2. Uncertainty in Macroeconomic and Policy

- The Dual Pressure of Inflation and Debt: Trump's trade protectionist policies have driven up supply chain costs, and core inflation may rebound to 2.8%-3%, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates and suppress risk appetite.

- Escalating Political Risks: The Trump family's issuance of MEME coins has raised compliance concerns, and if the SEC intervenes in the investigation, it may trigger a panic sell-off in the market.

3. The Unsustainability of the MEME Model

- Zero Value Support and High Volatility: Most MEME projects on the BSC chain have no real use cases and rely on community hype, and once the enthusiasm subsides (such as TST being denied listing by Binance), the price may plummet by more than 90%.

- Escalating Regulatory Risks: The U.S. Congress has already begun debating the legality of politicians issuing tokens, and if legislation restricts this, the MEME track will face systemic risks.

III. Future Forecast: Differentiation, Reconstruction and Long-term Opportunities

1. Intensified Market Differentiation

- Strengthening the Strategic Position of Bitcoin: Institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank predict that Bitcoin may break through $200,000 by the end of 2025 due to inflows of U.S. pension fund ETF funds, becoming a core asset against inflation.

- MEME Track Reshuffle: Only a few projects (such as MEME coins combined with AI or practical scenarios) may survive, while most will be eliminated due to liquidity depletion.

2. Structural Opportunities Driven by Policies

- Clarification of Regulatory Frameworks: If Trump successfully promotes the legislation of the "FIT21 Act", compliant exchanges and stablecoin issuers (such as Circle) will benefit, while gray-area projects will face elimination.

- Resurgence of Layer2 and DeFi: With the implementation of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, tokens such as ARB and OP may rebound due to technological upgrades and ecosystem expansion, with a target increase of 50%-100%.

3. Rebalancing of Macroeconomic Liquidity

- Fed Policy Shift: If inflation falls below 2.5% in the second half of 2025, the expectation of rate cuts may trigger a general rise in the crypto market, with Bitcoin expected to hit $250,000 (Nexo's forecast).

- Inflow of Emerging Market Funds: Under the strong dollar cycle, investors in Latin America and Southeast Asia may increase their holdings of cryptocurrencies to hedge against local currency depreciation, driving up demand for BTC, XRP and others.

IV. Investor Strategies: Defense and Offense Coexist

1. Short-term Defensive Allocation

- Reduce Leverage: It is recommended to control the contract leverage at 3-5 times and avoid overnight holding of MEME coins.

- Increase Stablecoin Holdings: Retain 20%-30% of funds in USDC or Dai to guard against black swan events.

2. Medium and Long-term Offensive Directions

- Bitcoin Dollar-cost Averaging: Build positions in batches in the $78,000-$82,000 range, with a long-term target of $180,000-$200,000.

- Layout of Layer2 Leaders: If OP and ARB pull back to below $0.4 and $1.0 respectively, they can be gradually accumulated to capitalize on the explosion of the ecosystem.

3. Beware of Risk Points

- Trump Policy Variables: If he fails to deliver on crypto-friendly policies, the market may correct 10%-15%.

- MEME Project Collapse: Closely monitor trading volume and community activity, and set strict stop-loss (such as a 20% drop below the support level).

Conclusion

The crypto market in 2025 is in the midst of a tug-of-war between "Trumponomics" and the MEME bubble. In the short term, the frenzy on the BSC chain cannot conceal the dilemma of policies and liquidity; in the long run, the scarcity and compliance process of Bitcoin remain the core theme. Investors need to maintain rationality in the frenzy and capture the opportunities of reconstruction in the differentiation.