The four-year cycle was once considered an immutable law of the cryptocurrency market, but now this cyclicality is gradually losing its clarity. According to Sandeep Nailwal, co-founder of Polygon, the main reason stems from the maturity of cryptocurrency as an asset and the increasing participation of institutional investors.

Factors Affecting the Cryptocurrency Market Cycle

In a recent episode of the Chain Reaction program by Cointelegraph, Nailwal emphasized that high interest rates in the United States and limited liquidation are reducing speculative activity in the market. However, he predicts that when interest rates decrease and the Trump administration stabilizes in its new term, the cryptocurrency market will experience a strong recovery.

He also noted that although Bitcoin halving still impacts the market, the 90% decline between cycles seen previously may no longer occur. Instead, adjustments of 30-40% will become more common, reflecting the industry's maturity and increasingly professional investment in cryptocurrencies, especially for Blue Chip assets.

Factors Breaking the Four-Year Cycle

1. Presidential Executive Order from Trump about Bitcoin
   The Trump administration's executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has changed the market's trajectory. This move not only directly impacted supply but also created confidence for institutional investors.
2. Cryptocurrency-Supportive Policies from the Trump Administration
   Supportive policies for the cryptocurrency sector have enhanced the industry's legitimacy, attracting new capital from institutions and minimizing price volatility.
3. Emergence of Bitcoin ETF Funds
   ETF funds help consolidate the value of digital assets while locking a portion of capital in traditional financial products. This can reduce the impact of Bitcoin halving on prices.
4. Macroeconomic Pressures and Geopolitical Instability
   When economic and political risks increase, investors tend to turn to safe assets like cash and government bonds, changing the capital flow into the cryptocurrency market.

Future Trends of the Cryptocurrency Market

The Polygon founder predicts that as the market enters an explosive phase, capital will shift from large-cap assets to altcoins and smaller-cap assets. This can create attractive investment opportunities but also comes with higher risks.