Odaily星球日报讯 Capital Flows 在 X 平台发文称，美股下跌正在影响比特币及加密板块上市公司（比如 Coinbase 和 Strategy），比特币与传统风险资产流动的趋同性越来越大，但仍处于风险曲线的远端，资本必须从风险较低的资产“向外”流动并进入加密市场才能推动比特币上涨。如果比特币重新反弹至 100,000 美元的范围，需要宏观流动性持久变化，而这种变化目前还没有发生，如果宏观流动性无法持续调整，随着隐含波动率溢价的增加，下一次股市下跌可能会将比特币拉低至 72,000-75,000 美元区间。

Odaily星球日报讯 Capital Flows 在 X 平台发文称，美股下跌正在影响比特币及加密板块上市公司（比如 Coinbase 和 Strategy），比特币与传统风险资产流动的趋同性越来越大，但仍处于风险曲线的远端，资本必须从风险较低的资产“向外”流动并进入加密市场才能推动比特币上涨。如果比特币重新反弹至 100,000 美元的范围，需要宏观流动性持久变化，而这种变化目前还没有发生，如果宏观流动性无法持续调整，随着隐含波动率溢价的增加，下一次股市下跌可能会将比特币拉低至 72,000-75,000 美元区间。

分析：美股若再次下跌或将BTC拉低至7.5万美元区间，重返10万美元需宏观流动性发生持久变化

<Odaily> Planet News: Capital Flows posted on X platform that the decline in US stocks is affecting Bitcoin and crypto sector listed companies (such as Coinbase and Strategy), with Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets increasingly converging, but still positioned at the far end of the risk curve. Capital must flow "outward" from lower-risk assets and enter the crypto market to drive Bitcoin's rise. If Bitcoin is to rebound to the $100,000 range, it requires a sustained change in macro liquidity, which has not yet occurred. If macro liquidity cannot be continuously adjusted, with the increase in implied volatility premium, the next stock market downturn may pull Bitcoin down to the $72,000-$75,000 range.

Analysis: If the US stock market falls again, BTC may fall to the $75,000 range. Returning to $100,000 requires a lasting change in macro liquidity

Data shows that U.S. consumer confidence significantly declined, with long-term inflation expectations rising. The three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply across the board, with Bitcoin dropping to $83,585 at one point, and Ethereum reaching a low of $1,854. Within 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $450 million.
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- Inflation expectations rise, consumer confidence falls, U.S. funds outflow performs poorly this quarter
- Top 10 cryptocurrencies decline across the board, except for TRX
Inflation expectations rise, consumer confidence falls, U.S. funds outflow performs poorly this quarter
As the end of this quarter approaches...

Tariffs and inflation squeezed the U.S. stock market, and Bitcoin fell back to 84K

<Odaily> Inky Cho, a financial market strategist at Exness, stated that the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market may be related to the selling panic caused by the transfer of BTC from the Mt.Gox debt settlement, and Trump's comments about the upcoming economic recession have also impacted the stock and cryptocurrency markets. From a macro perspective, the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq is currently around 40%. However, Bitcoin is experiencing a divergence with ETH and other Altcoins. Bitcoin is more like a tool for hedging economic uncertainty and current US tariffs, while Altcoins, including Ethereum, are still closely linked to the Nasdaq market dominated by the tech industry and tech stocks. Additionally, in the long term, Bitcoin's role as a tariff hedging tool may be strengthened, especially when tariffs trigger economic instability. (Samaa)

Opinion: The recent decline in the crypto market may be related to the panic selling caused by the transfer of BTC to settle debts Mt.Gox

Abstract
The market's recent concerns about the tariff risk on April 2nd may be at a critical turning point. If the negative impact of the final tariff measures does not exceed expectations, it is anticipated that funds previously sold due to concerns may re-enter the market after a brief decline, and combined with a positive dollar liquidity outlook, this could potentially drive a rebound in US stocks and Bitcoin.

However, despite the potential support from dollar liquidity, the actual situation of the April 2nd tariff measures will need to be observed at the time. The main risk lies in the possibility that tariff measures may exceed expectations, and insufficient market hedging could diminish the positive effect of dollar liquidity...

Analysis: If the US stock market falls again, BTC may fall to the $75,000 range. Returning to $100,000 requires a lasting change in macro liquidity

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