Original author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On March 31, Bitcoin's daily chart showed a four-day decline, falling from $87,000 to $81,000. Ethereum performed even worse, with a seven-day consecutive decline, dropping from around $2,100 to $1,800. Solana hovered around $130, with most Altcoins experiencing more losses than gains. According to CoinMarketCap data, the fear index is 24, indicating extreme panic.
According to Coinglass data, the total liquidation across the network in 24 hours was $213 million, with long positions liquidated at $163 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binance's ETH/USDT, valued at $13.308 million.
Since reaching its peak in December last year, the market has been declining for three consecutive months, with retail investor sentiment low. Will the market improve in the future?
Bitcoin Spot ETF Continues 10-Day Net Inflow, but Pace Slows
Recently, Bitcoin spot ETF data has been impressive, with net inflows exceeding net outflows for 10 consecutive days since March 14, with net inflows over $100 million on March 17, 18, and 20. However, since March 21, net inflows have not exceeded $100 million, and on March 28, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of $93 million, ending the 10-day consecutive net inflow.
Ethereum spot ETF performance appears much more pessimistic compared to Bitcoin, with only two days of net inflows this month, with the rest being net outflows. Its price performance is predictable. Ethereum's sluggish performance has significantly dragged down the performance of Altcoins, especially in L2 and restaking tracks.
Market Hedging Ahead of US Tariff Policy on April 2
On March 31, the Japanese stock market plummeted 4%, and the Korean stock index expanded its decline to 2.3%, with US futures also falling in early trading. As the US tariff policy approaches on April 2, market uncertainty will reach a new peak. According to CCTV News on Saturday, US President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the coming days, indicating openness to tariff agreements with other countries, but hinting that any agreement will be reached after the tariff measures take effect on April 2.
Citi's latest report summarized three main scenarios and their market impacts: first, announcing only reciprocal tariffs with limited market reaction; second, reciprocal tariffs plus VAT, potentially causing the US dollar index to rise 50-100 basis points and global stocks to fall; third, including industry-specific tariffs in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, which could trigger a more intense market reaction.
After the S&P 500 experienced its worst first quarter since 2020, analysts warn that the potential for further decline is greater than an increase. Some analyses point out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key, and the market's reaction on "April 2" will largely depend on the timing of tariffs, especially industry-specific tariffs and other countries' response speed to reciprocal tariffs.
The crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is increasingly closely tied to US stocks, and as a primary risk asset, it will face significant volatility before and after the policy announcement. Additionally, the US will release unemployment and non-farm employment data on the evening of April 4, followed by Powell's keynote speech. With dense data and policies approaching, some market investors choose to stay on the sidelines.
Subsequent Market Outlook
Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone suggests the market should focus on ETH price trends, as ETH shows a clear correlation with other risk assets. If S&P 500 stocks continue to weaken, ETH may further decline. McGlone believes that ETH returning to the $2,000 level could indicate the direction for risk assets. However, if Bitcoin fails to restore stable price growth, it may exacerbate Altcoin losses, especially top Altcoins continuing to weaken, potentially causing ETH to fall to $1,000 later this year.
Coinbase's Chief Strategy Research Lead, David Duong, states that the market reaction on April 2 will be relatively calm, but warns that no one is fully prepared due to numerous variables to track and paths to consider. This presents some extreme possibilities, especially regarding specific industry performance and broader economic impacts. However, as earnings season approaches, the market won't be ready to take significant positions before mid-April.
Real Vision founder Paoul shared a global liquidity M2 and Bitcoin price trend chart, suggesting the market is in a bottom range.
