ChainCatcher message, key points of Powell's speech on April 16th:
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, waiting for clearer signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Prospects: The US economy remains "robust", with first-quarter imports causing a drag, GDP growth may slow compared to last year.
3. Inflation Outlook: Tariff impacts may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE annual rate estimated at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall maintaining balance; reduced research funding is expected to have a significant impact on employment; unemployment rate anticipated to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: Tariff increases to date far exceed expectations; policies continue to adjust, with impacts still highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, need to establish a legal framework for stablecoins; bank regulation expected to be "partially relaxed".
7. Independence: The Federal Reserve's independence is legally granted; it will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Other: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Fed is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: Dollar index dropped then bounced back, then fell again; US stocks continued to decline, Nasdaq fell nearly 4%, gold slightly climbed.
