Written by: Luke, Mars Finance
On March 31, 2025, Bitcoin teetered on the edge of $83,000, having dropped approximately 24% from its peak of $109,000 two months earlier. The market was like a giant seesaw, with one end whispering of an abyss and the other tempting with starry skies.
Today, we focus on two heavyweight sages of the crypto world: Quinn Thompson, the helmsman of Lekker Capital, predicts Bitcoin will slowly bleed to $50,000-$59,000; Arthur Hayes, the godfather of Maelstrom, boldly bets it will ride the QE tailwind to $250,000 - a year-end target he reaffirmed in his latest article, despite previously joking about an ultimate million-dollar vision. The logic of these two is like black and white pieces on a chessboard, diametrically opposed yet captivating.
Quinn Thompson: The "Cold-Blooded Prophet" of Wall Street
[The rest of the translation continues in the same manner, maintaining the original structure and translating all text while preserving the specified terms like Bit, TRON, AR, RON, ONG, and BitMEX]Core Divergence: The Abyss of Tightening or the Frenzy of Easing?
The disagreement between two masters is like a philosophical and strategic peak confrontation, focusing on the core game of policy paths and liquidity:
Policy Intent
Thompson views Trump as a "cold-blooded surgeon" who reduces economic bubbles through D.O.G.E., immigration policies, and tariff cuts, even at the cost of recession. In his eyes, the White House would rather let the economy bleed to "cure the disease". Hayes sees him as a "real estate maniac" who creates a recession illusion with D.O.G.E. to force the Federal Reserve to print money, ultimately paving the way for "America First". Thompson focuses on the direct consequences of tightening, while Hayes perceives the easing motivation behind it.
Federal Reserve Response
Thompson believes the Federal Reserve is a "lukewarm spectator" who dares not ease significantly under inflation pressure, with QE being a distant prospect. He expects Powell to be cautious and unable to reverse the downward trend. Hayes counters that the Federal Reserve is a "tamed beast" that will restart QE under fiscal dominance and recession threats, even introducing SLR exemptions to become a liquidity fountain. He believes Powell has no choice but to submit.
Liquidity Outcome
Thompson predicts a "slow bear" market, with economic slowdown suppressing risk assets, causing Bitcoin to gradually decline to $50,000-$59,000. Hayes anticipates a "fast bull" market, with a liquidity flood pushing Bitcoin to $250,000, even laying the groundwork for a million-dollar valuation. Their views on liquidity are worlds apart, with one bearish and the other bullish.
Reality Progress: Is Hayes's $250,000 Prediction More Promising?
In this contest between $50,000 and $250,000, data suggests Hayes's "250,000 frenzy" might be more forward-looking. Thompson's "slow bear" logic has short-term merit: D.O.G.E. cuts have already caused Washington housing prices to drop 11%, employment data is deteriorating, and recession clouds are approaching. The Federal Reserve's cautious attitude also aligns with his judgment. Although Powell slowed QT in the March meeting, he remained vague about QE. If tightening exceeds expectations, Bitcoin dropping to $60,000-$70,000 is not impossible. However, this is just the surface; Hayes has grasped a deeper pulse.
Hayes pinpoints in 'KISS' that Trump is not an economic Puritan but a debt financing believer. He won't tolerate depression destroying his political capital but will use D.O.G.E.'s "tightening illusion" to force Powell's hand. The March FOMC meeting's QT slowdown released $240 billion in liquidity, and Powell's hint of "net Treasury buying" is already a QE prelude. Hayes's estimated $3.24 trillion liquidity (1.7 trillion rate cuts + 540 billion QT stop + 500 billion QE/SLR - 1 trillion) may not have fully materialized, but the direction is clear. Moreover, potential global easing effects—China stabilizing exchange rates, Europe expanding military—will amplify this flood. Bitcoin, as a "liquidity barometer", has stabilized at $76,500, indicating the market senses a turning point.
Thompson underestimates Trump's pragmatism and the Federal Reserve's passivity. Hayes comprehends the interplay of human nature and policy: Trump's "real estate show man" nature destines him to choose money printing, and Powell's "forced easing" under fiscal dominance is a historical inevitability. My judgment is: in the short term (6-9 months), Bitcoin might oscillate in the $70,000-$90,000 range, digesting tightening pressure; but if QE restarts in the third quarter, reaching $250,000 by year-end is not a fantasy. Hayes's "alchemy" wins by grasping liquidity's lifeline, not the tightening illusion.
Epilogue: The Symphonic Duel from $50,000 to $250,000
This contest between $50,000 and $250,000 is a battle between a calm "surgical knife" and a passionate "alchemy furnace". Thompson is like a chess player, cautious and strategically realistic; Hayes is like a gambling god, betting big, with optimism hiding a profound policy insight. Whoever laughs last, this debate reveals Bitcoin's essence: it's not an isolated island but a mirror of macroeconomic currents. Investors might "hold Thompson's caution in one hand and Hayes's frenzy in the other", waiting quietly for QE's thunderbolt. Will the $250,000 bell ring by year-end? Are you ready for this symphonic climax?
