On April 2, Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff policy at an event in the White House Rose Garden, and multiple industry analysts have expressed their views on the upcoming tariff content and market fluctuations.
Ethan Harris, former Chief Economist at Bank of America: Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" is likely just one of many steps in the ongoing trade war, and is unlikely to make the policy clear as investors, businesses, and households desire. Even if the trade war ends, the US economy will still weaken due to other policy aspects, such as government spending and employment cuts.
Garrett Melson, Portfolio Strategist at Natixis: The fact is that market sentiment has been diluted, and positions remain quite light. I don't think we'll get the clarity that investors and business leaders want. We've spent a lot of time discussing tariffs, but more importantly, we're facing an economy that isn't running at full capacity. Investors are waiting and watching.
Chris Weston, Research Director at Pepperstone: We're about to enter Trump's moment in the spotlight, with many having deleveraged and trying to remain stable or neutral in stocks, dollars, and US Treasuries. While theoretically, a 20% comprehensive tariff rate would be seen as a net positive for the dollar, the market is most concerned about whether tariffs will accelerate the risk of stagflation in the US economy.
Vasoo Menon, Managing Director of Investment Strategy at OCBC Bank Singapore: Trump calls April 2 Liberation Day, but investors are unlikely to truly be relieved from tariff uncertainty. If other countries take retaliatory actions, Trump may raise the stakes - a possibility that could continue to make investors nervous.
Jim Reid, Analyst at Deutsche Bank: Trump will announce high tariffs, which other countries may respond to with their own retaliatory measures, a prospect that heightens inflation concerns. Investors are worried that US tariffs will be met with retaliatory measures, which in turn could lead to further escalation as the US seeks to respond.
Wells Fargo Economists: "Preventive" measures before tariffs and efforts to reduce import risks have pushed up the manufacturing price index, while ongoing uncertainty is suppressing potential demand, leaving manufacturers eager to know the specific tariff plans.
Carol Kong, Foreign Exchange Strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia: The market will be tense before Trump announces tariffs. Market sentiment will be influenced by further tariff news, which in turn will drive exchange rates before major announcements are made. (Jin Shi)
