It was a week where it was difficult to predict even an inch ahead. Volatility was originally a characteristic of cryptocurrencies, but since the Trump administration began to implement tariff policies in earnest, all assets around the world have been moving with volatility no less than Bitcoin.

The Trump administration’s performance last week can be summarized as “strong first, weak later.” At first, they pushed ahead with tariff policies, shouting “my way” even as the stock market plunged.

The cryptocurrency market, which had $1 billion worth of derivatives positions liquidated over the weekend , suffered another decline as soon as the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, the 7th (local time). Bitcoin fell weakly below $75,000 before rebounding slightly . Ethereum fell well below $1,500 .

On the 7th, word leaked through a White House economic adviser that the Trump administration could postpone tariffs for 90 days, creating a strong rebound atmosphere in the market. However, the Trump administration dismissed this as “ fake news.”

The financial market was tense as the US imposed a total of nearly 150% reciprocal tariffs on China and China responded in kind . However, this atmosphere began to change starting on April 8. As the bidding competition rate for 3-year US Treasury bonds was much lower than expected, fears of a ‘US cutoff’ swept the bond market. Goldman Sachs predicted that there was a 45% chance that this situation would lead to an economic recession.

The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 0.5 percentage points in two days, reaching 4.5%. The 30-year US Treasury yield rose to nearly 5%. As the Treasury market, which is the foundation of the financial industry, became unstable, President Trump finally announced on Thursday, the 10th (local time), that he would lower the tariff rate for countries other than China to 10% for 90 days.

90-day tariff grace period excluding China… Will it ease the anxiety in the bond market?

The move to suspend tariffs for countries other than China for 90 days has had a significant impact. The U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency markets rose more than 10% in a single day , and the market’s expectation of a rate cut in May, which had been at 57%, immediately fell to 19% .

But unlike the cheering atmosphere of the risk asset market, once the US Treasury yields started to rise, they showed no signs of stopping easily. Interest rates and bond prices are inversely related. A sharp rise in Treasury yields means a sharp fall in bond prices.

Usually, when stocks fall, demand for safe assets such as bonds increases, and bond prices tend to rise. In this respect, the current situation is quite unique, as stocks and bonds are falling together.

In fact, the value of the dollar is also plummeting. The dollar index (DXY) has fallen by about 5% since the tariff policy announcement on April 2, and as of the 14th, it has broken the 100 range that it has been maintaining for a long time and is currently at 99.481. This is the reason why stocks have been slow to rise even after the Trump administration announced tariff deferral measures .

The last thing that marked the end of the week was the remarks of Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins on Friday the 11th. In an interview with the Financial Times, she said, “We are prepared to take all necessary measures to stabilize the market immediately.” This remark was interpreted as stabilizing the bond market, which was extremely anxious, and led to a strong rise in the entire risk asset class.

The U.S. is looking at smartphones and semiconductors… What will be the direction of its tariff policy?

The key issue to watch this week is the semiconductor tariff. The US initially excluded semiconductor items when setting reciprocal tariffs on the 2nd.

However, on the 11th (local time), the White House released a White House memo stating that, "These semiconductors originally included smartphones and computers." This means that tariffs on smartphones made in China will be canceled, which is a huge boon for major U.S. smartphone manufacturers Apple and Nvidia.

For this reason, an overall rise on Monday is expected, and the price of Bitcoin rose to $86,000 at one point over the weekend . China responded to the news by saying, “The United States should withdraw its wrong tariff policy and return to the path of mutual respect.”

However, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Rutnick made a new statement on semiconductors at 11 p.m. on the 14th, Korean time. It said that the tariff exemption period for smartphones and computers would be about one or two months, after which they would be subject to the tariff rate set for the semiconductor industry.

As this news spread, the price of Bitcoin gave back its gains and fell to $83,000. Given this situation, attention is focused on how the White House will finalize its position. This is because the tariff issue is currently having the biggest impact on the risky asset market, including Bitcoin.

In terms of macroeconomic indicators, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) released last week were significantly lower than expected, somewhat dispelling concerns about inflation. In relation to this, attention is being paid to what message Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver in his public speech on Thursday, the 17th.

President Trump has been demanding the Fed and Chairman Powell to cut interest rates quickly for a week. In the meantime, all Fed officials who have spoken publicly have consistently sent the message that "now is not the time to make a rate decision." How will the Fed view the current volatile bond market? These are the points to watch. Then, I wish you successful investment this week.