Master's Hot Topic Discussion:
Currently, the only tariffs still being hit are those on imported cars and parts, with the possibility of negotiation and easing of tariffs with the East. In the next period, tariffs may gradually release positive signals, which is consistent with Master's previous expectations.
The April 2nd tariffs are the worst version, with almost no possibility of implementation, and the harm of tariffs will gradually decrease. However, besides tariffs, the economy cannot be ignored. This has become troublesome - if the economy is good, the Federal Reserve won't be in a hurry to cut rates.
If the economy is poor, a Federal Reserve rate cut would represent an increased possibility of recession. The economy is the headache issue moving forward, with the focus still on the GDP data to be announced at the end of April, which will be of even greater importance.
Returning to BTC, the weekly U-shaped reversal trend is similar to the one after May 19th, with prices reaching a new historical high. The weekly candlestick looks bullish, and with no announcement of electronic product tariff exemptions on Friday, the inability to break to new lows is a sign of market reversal.
The early weekly trend was slightly bullish, with the main rising wave approaching before rate cuts, and selling near new highs before rate cuts. Over the weekend, the bulls have significantly strengthened. Some friends are asking if the trend has reversed. Personally, I believe we are on the eve of a reversal.
Because a trend reversal must first break through 93k. The current rebound is a weekly-level pullback, with the 3-day line pullback completed yesterday morning, reaching a high of 86.1k.
If it breaks through here, it will move to the upper Bollinger Band at 88.5k on the daily line, which is the strongest resistance in this period. Breaking through would look towards 91-93k. If it can't break, it will retrace to 85-83k for adjustment. With strong bulls, the short-term strategy should shift to primarily long at low points, supplemented by high shorts, and only shorting at major points.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 86,600
Second Resistance: 85,300
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 83,350
Second Support: 82,300
Today's Recommendation:
Yesterday, BTC dropped from 86k and is now rebounding. This adjustment is quite normal, especially before prices surge too high and enter the overbought zone, so the current adjustment is still healthy.
The first resistance at 85.3k is yesterday's candlestick closing high. If the price can stabilize nearby and slowly raise the low point, there's hope for a breakthrough. After breaking through, there might be a pullback for confirmation, which is a potential ultra-short-term buying opportunity.
However, from a market psychology perspective, stabilizing between 85-85.3k might be challenging. So trading volume must be monitored. If volume doesn't keep up, prices might need to adjust and consolidate for a while.
The first support at 83.5k is currently the most important support level, which was previously a resistance zone. It now coincides with the 120 and 200-day moving averages, making it an attractive ultra-short-term entry point with a good risk-reward ratio.
If the first support doesn't hold, prices might drop to 82.3k. In case of a sharp decline, pay attention to the candlestick's lower shadow for potential ultra-short-term rebound entry.
4.14 Master's Swing Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: Light position long at 81,400-82,300 interval, Target: 83,350-85,300
Short Entry Reference: Light position short at 85,300-86,100 interval, Target: 83,350-82,300
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