According to ChainCatcher, citing CoinDesk, while the possibility of reaching the bottom cannot be ruled out, on-chain analyst James Check suggests that the true bottom may only appear after Bitcoin experiences a genuine "capitulation selling" event.
James Check indicates this could mean Bitcoin needs to fall back to around the $65,000 area, which he calls the "true market average" - the average holding cost of active investors. Once it drops to this level, average investors may start feeling the pressure of unrealized losses, and even long-term holders who have held for five years might face being "underwater". Michael Saylor's Strategy has a Bitcoin average holding cost of approximately $67,500.
Although Check anticipates a significant drop from the $65,000 area, he believes there is strong support between $49,000 and $50,000. This price range represents both the launch price of Bitcoin spot ETF in 2024 and a critical threshold of Bitcoin's $1 trillion market value. He states that unless a global economic recession occurs, the likelihood of Bitcoin falling to $40,000 is low. In 2024, Bitcoin has experienced a long period of "chopsolidation" - with prices maintaining a wide fluctuation range between $50,000 and $70,000 for several months, establishing a solid support base for the market.
