BTC price prediction: Technical and fundamental game under the million-dollar narrative

• Technical indicators show short-term overbought conditions, with Bollinger Band upper rail and MACD divergence suggesting pullback pressure
• Institutional holdings (MicroStrategy/Metaplanet) and corporate investments (Vanadi Coffee) constitute bottom support
• Regulatory risks (IRS review) may suppress short-term speculative enthusiasm

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Short-term Correction Risk and Key Support Levels

According to BTCC financial analyst Michael's technical analysis, BTC's current price of 108,428.55 USDT is slightly above the 20-day moving average of 105,774.97, indicating a medium-term upward trend. The MACD histogram shows a negative value of -410.63, suggesting weakening short-term momentum. Bollinger Bands show the price is near the upper rail of 109,711.14, and if unable to break through, it may face a technical correction, with key support at the middle rail of 105,774.97 and lower rail of 101,838.80.

Market Sentiment Divergence: Institutional Holdings Offset Regulatory Tightening Expectations

Michael noted that despite MicroStrategy transferring 7,383 BTC to optimize custody strategy, and Japanese Metaplanet's holdings ranking fifth globally, indicating continued institutional positioning, the IRS's enhanced crypto review and public company adoption progress may trigger short-term volatility. Although Vanadi Coffee's 1 billion euro investment plan is positive, the market needs to digest regulatory uncertainties.

Factors Affecting BTC Price

Bitcoin Faces Correction Risk, On-chain Indicators Show Market Weakness

Bitcoin market stability conceals growing fragility. The current cryptocurrency trading price is 108,129.78 USD, with a slight daily increase of 0.68%, but on-chain data reveals concerning divergence. The "actual demand" indicator has turned negative, indicating miners and long-term holders' absorption capacity is weakening.

The Puell Multiple index surged 25.73% to 1.26, showing miner profitability has reached a historically sell-off range. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's NVT ratio increased significantly by 84.17% to 55.17, suggesting network valuation growth exceeds transaction activity—a typical overheating warning signal. Exchange inflows and negative DAA divergence further show that despite price resilience, the market continues to face selling pressure.

Vanadi Coffee Shareholders Approve 1 Billion Euro Bitcoin Investment Plan

Spanish coffee chain Vanadi Coffee has received shareholder approval to allocate up to 1 billion euros for Bitcoin purchases. This move emulates MicroStrategy's corporate treasury strategy, positioning the company to become Spain's largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder.

This decision reflects growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. By adopting this aggressive accumulation strategy, Vanadi Coffee joins the few companies building substantial crypto positions on their balance sheets.

Public Company Crypto Adoption: Bitcoin as a Market Cap Engine

Global capital markets are witnessing unprecedented crypto adoption, with 44 public companies using digital assets to drive stock prices. From platforms like Coinbase to corporate Bitcoin buyers like MicroStrategy, the narrative of crypto as a value engine is gaining attention.

Five key areas are emerging: crypto trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, crypto asset holders, blockchain technology pioneers, and mining enterprises. The compliant US exchange Coinbase is a typical representative of the first category, providing secure trading for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Institutional adoption is no longer a niche trend but a strategic move to enter the next wave of crypto capital market growth. The balance between innovation and regulation will determine the sustainability of this momentum.

IRS Intensifies Crypto Currency Review, Warning Letter Count Surges

As Bitcoin leads market recovery, the US Internal Revenue Service is strengthening enforcement, sending numerous warning letters to crypto investors. Tax professionals report that related inquiries have increased ninefold since May, with CoinLedger alone handling nearly 800 cases.

CoinLedger's David Kemmerer noted that thousands of investors received compliance notices, causing panic among those who underestimated reporting requirements. Despite bullish digital asset prices, regulators are clearly more focused on tax enforcement than market conditions.

Legal experts Jordan Bass and Andre W. Gordon confirmed this trend, with multiple clients seeking legal advice about IRS communications. This coordinated action marks the maturation of crypto tax agreements, aligning with traditional financial regulatory mechanisms.

MicroStrategy Transfers 7,383 BTC to New Wallets to Optimize Custody Strategy

MicroStrategy has transferred 7,383 Bitcoins (BTC), worth approximately $796 million, to three newly created wallets. Detected by Lookonchain, this appears to be an optimization of asset custody strategy.

The company maintains its consistent 'buy and hold' Bitcoin strategy, with no sales records since a brief transaction in late 2022. This transfer further solidifies MicroStrategy's position as the most committed corporate crypto holder.

Metaplanet Bitcoin Holdings Expand to 13,350 BTC, Becoming Fifth-Largest Corporate Holder Globally

Japanese investment company Metaplanet recently made a significant Bitcoin purchase, acquiring 1,005 BTC for $108.1 million, bringing its total holdings to 13,350 BTC—surpassing Tesla to become the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally.

This acquisition was executed through its ambitious "555 Plan", targeting the accumulation of 210,000 BTC (equivalent to 1% of Bitcoin's total supply) by 2027. Metaplanet recently raised 74.9 billion yen ($517 million) through equity issuance to implement this strategy, demonstrating strong institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset.

Metaplanet's Bit trading volume currently ranks second among holding companies, second only to MicroStrategy. Its trading scale far exceeds competitors - reaching 17.5 times that of the third-ranked Semler Scientific. This aggressive holding strategy reflects the business community's increasing view of Bit as a hedging tool against fiat currency depreciation.

Robert Kiyosaki Predicts Bit Could Reach $1 Million, Reflecting on Early Investment Regrets

The author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki revealed his Bit investment journey in a recent social media post. He admitted that when he first purchased BTC at $6,000 per coin, he thought the price was "too high" - now, with prices approaching $107,000, he regrets that decision. Kiyosaki remains optimistic, suggesting Bit could ultimately reach $1 million, and urges investors to accumulate even fractional positions.

This financial guru elaborated his perspective through modern monetary theory, acknowledging his relatively late entry into the crypto market. His comments reinforce the growing institutional narrative: scarce digital assets like Bit can serve as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

Market observers note that such high-profile endorsements often trigger FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) among retail investors. Although Kiyosaki did not specify exchange preferences, his public stance could potentially drive incremental demand on platforms like Coinbase and Binance.

How High Can BTC Price Go?

Synthesizing technical indicators and market sentiment, Michael believes BTC may oscillate in the 105,774-109,711 range short-term. If it maintains the 20-day moving average support, it could challenge $120,000 in the second half of the year; however, if it breaks below the 101,838 lower limit, it might retest $95,000. Long-term, accelerating institutional adoption and Kiyosaki's million-dollar prediction continue to support the bull market narrative.