Reasons for the recent divergence between interest rate and stock market signals: Paradoxical phenomenon: The S&P 500 hit a record high, but interest rate markets are pricing in more Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the 10-year Treasury yield continues to decline.

Potential risks: If the rate cut is not accompanied by economic weakness, it may push up the term premium and steepen the yield curve; the residual tariff inflation may limit the room for rate cuts; if the 10-year yield falls below 4% driven by "rising recession risks", the stock market will come under pressure.

The market has lowered its US growth forecasts, shifting from "growth concerns" to "betting on a Fed shift." Weak data can still support risky assets (assuming it doesn't trigger recession fears). Baseline scenario: "soft growth without a recession" for the next few quarters, which is positive for risky assets, but protection tools are needed for "rising recession fears."