Gold hit a historic peak when the price hit $4,357/ounce, pushing the Capital to an estimated $30 trillion, 14.5 times more than Bitcoin and about 1.5 times larger than the Magnificent 7 total.
The 64% rally since the start of the year reflects concerns about a weakening US dollar, geopolitical tensions and tariff risks. As flows into gold slow, many analysts say Bitcoin could be the next destination for liquidation.
- Gold hits record $30 trillion market Capital as price hits $4,357 an ounce; 14.5 times larger than Bitcoin and 1.5 times the Magnificent 7 total.
- Gold has increased by 64% since the beginning of the year; when the gold momentum cools down, many predict that money flow may rotate to Bitcoin.
- Global M2 up, gold up, Bitcoin lags; previous cycles show the gap is often closed by a catch-up rally.
Why is gold Capital reaching 30 trillion USD a remarkable milestone?
This is a historic record, reached when the price of gold reached 4,357 USD/ounce. This milestone shows that the total value of gold mined is more valuable than other assets.
At $30 trillion, gold is now about 14.5 times larger than Bitcoin’s market Capital of about $2.1 trillion, and 1.5 times larger than the combined market Capital of the “Magnificent 7” (Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla) of nearly $20 trillion. This difference highlights gold’s Vai as a haven in times of uncertainty.
How is gold Capital calculated?
Unlike stocks based on outstanding shares, gold Capital is estimated by multiplying the total value of all mined gold by the current price, but cannot be determined with absolute precision.
Estimates of the size of “above-ground” gold are often referenced by the World Gold Council, which records high levels of accumulated mined gold reserves and updates them periodically (World Gold Council, 2024). However, estimates vary, making gold Capital an approximation.
How much has gold price increased and why so much?
Gold prices have risen about 64% since January 1, driven by safe-haven demand from a weakening US dollar, geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns.
In addition to defensive sentiment, central bank net purchases remain at record highs in 2022–2023, providing support for the uptrend (World Gold Council, 2023–2024). This adds to the picture of safe-haven flows amid rising macro uncertainty.
Could Capital Flows Rotate to Bitcoin as Gold Cools Down?
Many analysts expect that as the momentum in gold slows, Bitcoin – often referred to as “digital gold” – could benefit from liquidation rotation.
“Gold added over $300 billion to its market Capital today. In the past week, it added the equivalent of Bitcoin’s market Capital .”
– Sykodelic, crypto analyst, 5th, source: X
Venture capitalist JOE Consorti said that if Bitcoin declines in correlation with US stocks amid geopolitical tensions, especially as gold flows slow, “it could be a trade after a trade,” implying a continued rally in BTC (source: X ).
Global M2 increases, gold increases, Bitcoin moves sideways: what should we understand?
Divergences between liquidation (M2), gold, and Bitcoin are typically short-lived; history shows that liquidation eventually finds its way to riskier assets.
“This divergence never lasts; liquidation always seeks risk, and the catch-up will be violent.”
– Merlijn the Trader, analyst, 5th, source: X
With M2 rising and gold breaking out, Bitcoin is currently “asleep”. If the historical pattern repeats itself, BTC ’s catch-up could be fast and strong as risk expectations improve, especially as Capital flows cool.
Where is Bitcoin compared to the beginning of the year and its all-time high?
Bitcoin is up about 16% from the start of the year, but is still nearly 14% off its all-time high.
Momentum could improve if BTC loosens its correlation with US equities and benefits from alternative Capital flows, as market players suggest. However, the direction of travel will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policies, and risk appetite.
Quick Comparison: Gold, Bitcoin, and the Magnificent 7
At current price levels, gold is larger in terms of market Capital than Bitcoin and the entire Magnificent 7 combined.
| Assets/Assets | Estimated Capital | Ratio to gold |
|---|---|---|
| Yellow | 30 trillion USD | 1.00x |
| Magnificent 7 (total) | 20 trillion USD | 0.67x |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | 2.1 trillion USD | 0.07x |
Note: Figures approximate to original content; for illustration purposes only.
Risks and notes when interpreting gold Capital
Gold Capital is based on estimates of total gold mined, so it is not absolutely accurate and depends on assumptions about “above ground” reserves.
The World Gold Council provides a commonly used reference frame, but differences in methodology can create significant gaps between estimates (World Gold Council, 2024). Therefore, gold Capital should be viewed as an indicator of size, not an absolute number.
Scenarios to watch in the short term
Key variables include: gold Capital velocity, BTC-US stock correlation, and global M2 liquidation trends.
If safe-haven flows cool and risk appetite increases, the probability of rotation into Bitcoin and riskier assets will increase. Conversely, a new macro shock could prolong gold’s haven advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why could gold's market Capital be larger than the Magnificent 7?
Gold is a global safe haven asset, accumulated over thousands of years. Its market Capital reflects the total gold ever mined multiplied by the current price, while Magnificent 7 remains a stock subject to economic cycles and market valuations.
Is Bitcoin really “digital gold”?
Bitcoin is often likened to digital gold due to its scarce supply and decentralization. However, its high volatility and cyclical correlation make BTC 's Vai as a safe haven dependent on the market context.
What impact does M2 increase have on Bitcoin?
Rising M2 implies more liquidation . History shows that liquidation can find its way into risk assets like Bitcoin when risk appetite improves, although not always in sync over time.
How to estimate gold Capital without knowing the exact amount of gold?
The market typically references the World Gold Council’s estimate of “above ground” reserves and multiplies it by the current gold price. The result is an approximation, not an absolute value.
When can Capital rotate from gold to Bitcoin?
As gold’s rally slows and risk appetite recovers, money may seek yield in Bitcoin. Signals include: declining gold Capital , rising M2, and falling BTC-stock correlation.
