Headlines
Kraken: Has Confidentially Submitted a Registration Draft for Proposed IPO to the U.S. SEC
According to an official announcement, Payward, Inc. (operating under the name Kraken) has confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding its proposed initial public offering (IPO) of common stock. The number of shares to be offered and the price range have not yet been determined. The IPO is expected to proceed after the SEC completes its review process and will be subject to market and other conditions.
Vitalik Buterin: Quantum computing may break elliptic curve cryptography before the 2028 US election.
Vitalik Buterin warned on Devconnect that quantum computing could break elliptic curve cryptography before the 2028 US presidential election and urged ETH to transition to quantum-resistant cryptography within the next four years.
Market Trends
As of press time, according to CoinGecko data:
The price of BTC is $91,354.66, a 24-hour change of -1.7% .
The price of ETH is $3,016.29, a 24-hour change of -3.3% .
BNB price is $894.41, down 4.2% in the last 24 hours;
The price of SOL is $136.54, a 24-hour change of -3.1% .
The price of DOGE is $0.1544, a 24-hour change of -4.4% .
XRP price is $2.11, down 4.7% in the last 24 hours;
The price of TRX is $0.2864, a 24-hour change of -1.4% .
The WLFI price is $0.1381, a 24-hour change of -1.8% .
The price of HYPE is $38.59, down 0.6% in the last 24 hours.
policy
The US Senate may advance a crypto bill in December.
According to Cointelegraph, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott stated that the Senate plans to mark the Crypto Markets Structure Act in December, with the goal of sending it to President Trump for signature by early 2026, aiming to make the United States the "crypto capital of the world." The bill aims to clarify the crypto regulatory powers of the CFTC and SEC.
U.S. senators urge the IRS to reconsider its cryptocurrency staking rewards tax policy.
Indiana Republican Senator Todd Young has written to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, urging the IRS to reconsider its 2023 guidance on the tax treatment of cryptocurrency staking rewards. As a member of the Senate Finance Committee, Senator Young questions the rationale behind current regulations requiring cryptocurrency holders to pay taxes upon “receiving”staking rewards, rather than upon “selling” them. Staking refers to the process by which cryptocurrency holders lock up their assets to support the operation of a blockchain network and verify transactions. Bessant, who also serves as Acting Commissioner of the IRS, has direct oversight authority over this policy.
The EU has proposed postponing the application of high-risk AI rules until December 2027.
The EU has proposed postponing the application of high-risk AI rules from August 2026 to December 2027. The EU stated it will simplify rules for conducting data protection impact assessments. These so-called "corporate wallets" could save companies €150 billion annually in administrative costs. Cookie rules will be revised to find a one-click solution for obtaining user consent, thus addressing cookie fatigue.
US officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of the month.
U.S. officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November.
Blockchain applications
▌Coinbase application code appears to contain early market prediction and stock trading modules.
Coinbase users may soon have direct access to prediction markets and tokenized stock trading within the app. Screenshots shared by independent researcher Jane Manchun Wong show that Coinbase is testing interfaces for prediction markets and tokenized stock trading. Wong stated that she discovered these screenshots by reverse engineering publicly available code from the Coinbase mobile app, which displayed labels for "Stocks," "Predictions," and related disclosures. These features were announced several months ago by the company as part of its "Everything Can Be Traded" initiative.
Naver's board of directors will confirm its plan to acquire Upbit's parent company, Dunamu, next week.
Sources indicate that Naver, South Korea's largest portal site, is expected to confirm its acquisition plan for Dunamu at its board meeting next week. Dunamu is the operator of Upbit, South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange. Dunamu plans to hold a board meeting on November 26th to confirm the specific details of the acquisition. Naver reportedly plans to make Dunamu a wholly owned subsidiary of Naver through a full stock swap via its fintech subsidiary, Naver Financial, to expand its digital finance business.
Doppel, a digital risk management and protection platform, has raised $70 million in Series C funding.
Doppel, an AI-driven social engineering defense platform, announced the completion of a $70 million Series C funding round, led by Bessemer Venture Partners, with participation from George Kurtz, NTT DOCOMO Ventures, Aurum Partners, Nneka Ogwumike, Breanna Stewart, Kelsey Plum, a16z, South Park Commons, Script Capital, 9Yards Capital, Sozo Ventures, and Strategic Cyber Ventures. Doppel aims to protect organizations from social engineering threats such as phishing, impersonation, and deepfake fraud. The new funding will support the construction of a digital protection infrastructure that combines generative AI with expert human analysis.
Cryptocurrency
QCP: The current US economy is closer to the late stage of a cycle than a recession; this week's data will determine the future direction of Bitcoin.
QCP released its daily market watchlist, noting that Bitcoin continued its decline this week, briefly falling below the key $90,000 level, driven by tightening expectations of interest rate hikes and continued outflows from ETFs that dampened market sentiment. Thin liquidity further amplified the decline, demonstrating Bitcoin's increasing sensitivity to changes in the macroeconomic environment. This pullback occurred against the backdrop of a rapid repricing of expectations by the Federal Reserve—the market shifted from a near certainty of a December rate cut to a more balanced probability. This put pressure on interest rate-sensitive assets like Bitcoin, while the stock market remained relatively stable due to robust corporate earnings, particularly strong profits reported by large tech (hyperscalers) and record AI-driven capital spending. As the US government reopens, official data releases provide the market with essential insights into the momentum of economic fundamentals. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which now incorporates the latest job openings data. This information will help determine whether labor market tightness or inflation will dominate the Fed's policy response in 2026. Beneath the surface, the US economy continues to exhibit a K-shaped divergence: high-income household spending remains resilient, while low-income groups face increasing pressure. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a cautious stance, noting that a December rate cut is "not certain." Overall, current economic conditions are closer to the late stage of a cycle than a recession. While fiscal constraints and labor market divergence pose ongoing risks, robust household balance sheets and resilient corporate capital spending still provide a buffer against downside. This week's data will determine whether Bitcoin's pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.
Bitcoin miners' transaction fee revenue falls to its lowest point in 12 months.
Bitcoin miners' revenue consists of two parts: block rewards and transaction fees. Currently, block rewards generate approximately $45 million in revenue for miners daily. Transaction fees contribute about $300,000 in revenue daily, a 12-month low, representing less than 1% of miners' total revenue.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a record single-day outflow of $523 million.
BlackRock's IBIT recorded its largest single-day net outflow since its inception in January 2024 on Tuesday. IBIT saw an outflow of $523.15 million yesterday, surpassing the previous record of $463 million set on November 14. The ETF has now experienced net outflows for five consecutive days, totaling $1.43 billion. As the world's largest spot Bitcoin ETF (net assets of $72.76 billion), IBIT has been on an outflow trend since late October.
Ondo receives EU approval to offer tokenized stocks and ETFs across Europe.
Ondo Global Markets, a subsidiary of Ondo, has received regulatory approval from the Liechtenstein Financial Markets Authority (FMA) to offer tokenized stocks and ETFs to retail investors in the European Economic Area, including all EU member states, Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway, reaching approximately 500 million investors across 30 European countries.
A suspected Bitmine address has increased its holdings by over 24,800 ETH, worth $72.52 million.
According to lookonchain monitoring, despite the decline in ETH prices, Tom Lee's Bitmine may still be continuing to buy ETH. A new wallet, 0x748d, is likely related to Bitmine—it just received 24,827 ETH (worth $72.52 million) from BitGo.
BlackRock deposited 6,300 BTC and 64,706 ETH into Coinbase.
According to OnchainLens monitoring, BlackRock deposited 6,300 BTC, worth approximately $576 million, and 64,706 ETH, worth approximately $200 million, into Coinbase.
▌Matrixport: MicroStrategy is unlikely to be forced to sell its tokens in the short term, but investors who entered at high premiums will face the heaviest pressure.
Matrixport released a daily chart analysis stating that MicroStrategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries of this Bitcoin bull market. The market had previously worried that the company might be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings to repay debts. However, based on the current balance sheet structure and debt maturity distribution, we believe that the probability of being forced to sell Bitcoin to repay debts in the short term is low and is not the primary source of risk. Currently, the greatest pressure is on investors who bought at the high premium. Most of MicroStrategy's financing occurred when the stock price was near its all-time high of $474 and its net asset value per share (NAV) was at its peak. As NAV gradually declined and the premium compressed, the stock price also corrected from $474 to $207, resulting in significant unrealized losses for investors who entered the market at the high premium. Using the recent surge in Bitcoin's price as a benchmark, MicroStrategy's current stock price has significantly corrected from its previous high, making its valuation relatively more attractive, and the expectation of its inclusion in the S&P 50 index in December remains. Even so, this correction reminds us that timing and valuation are equally important, and investors need to be more cautious in controlling their entry prices and purchase opportunities.
Citibank has given a buy rating to Bitcoin treasury company Strategy.
According to market sources, Citigroup, with assets of $2.6 trillion, has given a buy rating to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy (MSTR). Target price: $485.
Strategy's Executive Vice President sold 5,200 shares of MSTR stock, worth $1.04 million.
According to market sources, Strategy Executive Vice President Shao Wei-Ming has sold company stock again. He has sold 5,200 shares of MSTR stock at $200 each, for a total value of $1.04 million.
Arthur Hayes sold another 320,000 LDOs, worth $227,000.
According to Lookonchain, Arthur Hayes sold another 320,000 LDO tokens, worth $227,000.
The $1 billion Ethereum DAT project has been shelved; it was previously led by Li Lin, Shen Bo, Xiao Feng, and Cai Wensheng.
The $1 billion Ethereum DAT project spearheaded by Li Lin, Shen Bo, Xiao Feng, and Cai Wensheng has been shelved, and the funds raised have been returned. This project was the largest DAT project led by Asian investors. Industry insiders speculate that the shelving was mainly due to the market downturn following the 1011 incident, with many DAT companies experiencing significant stock price declines recently. Regarding whether the project will be restarted, relevant personnel stated that investor interests will be prioritized, and the market situation remains to be seen. According to an earlier Bloomberg report, Li Lin (founder of Huobi) was collaborating with early Ethereum supporters in Asia, including Shen Bo (co-founder of Distributed Capital), Xiao Feng (CEO of HashKey), and Cai Wensheng (founder of Meitu), to establish a new digital asset trust fund, planning to initially purchase approximately $1 billion worth of ETH. The team was in talks to acquire a Nasdaq-listed shell company for structuring, and the funding included $200 million from Li Lin's Avenir Investment Company and approximately $500 million from Sequoia China and other Asian institutions.
Coinbase will list Aster (ASTER)
Coinbase will launch spot trading for Aster (ASTER). The ASTER-USD trading pair will begin trading if liquidity conditions are met and the supported trading regions meet the requirements.
Important economic developments
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the October non-farm payrolls report; the November report has been rescheduled for release on December 16.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will not release the October non-farm payrolls report, stating that the originally scheduled October employment data (from the business survey) will be combined with the November report. This combined report is scheduled for release on December 16th, meaning that Federal Reserve officials will not have access to this crucial data at their final policy meeting of the year (the Fed's interest rate decision will be announced in the early hours of December 11th, Beijing time). The agency noted that the October household survey data, used to calculate key indicators such as the unemployment rate, will not be retrospectively collected. The U.S. non-farm payrolls report consists of two parts: the household survey and the business survey, with the business survey used to compile non-farm payroll data. The agency also stated that it will extend the data collection period for the November household and business surveys.
The Fed meeting minutes revealed serious internal divisions, with policymakers persisting in interest rate cuts despite inflation warnings.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's October policy meeting revealed significant divisions within the Fed's decision-making body regarding last month's rate cut. Despite warnings that the rate cut could undermine efforts to curb inflation—which has remained above the 2% target for the past four and a half years—the decision was ultimately made to lower rates. The minutes stated that "many participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate," but also noted that some members who supported the rate cut were equally accepting of maintaining the current rate. Several officials directly opposed the rate cut, expressing concern that "the Committee's progress toward achieving its 2% inflation target has stalled, and noted that if inflation fails to return to 2% in a timely manner, long-term inflation expectations could rise." The minutes added that "most participants noted that further reductions in the policy rate could exacerbate the risk of persistently high inflation, or be misinterpreted by the market as a lack of commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target." These minutes reflect officials' efforts to reach consensus amidst a lack of data: weighing the dual risks of rising inflation and a weak labor market, while also warning that a "sharp revaluation" of artificial intelligence investments could lead to a "disorderly stock market decline."
Fed mouthpiece: December vote will be very close.
Nick Timiraos, the Fed's mouthpiece, commented on the October Fed meeting minutes: "At the Fed officials' October meeting, the division deepened regarding whether to cut rates next month, leading to growing unease among policymakers (potentially forming a narrow majority) about a December rate cut. Several participants assessed that a further rate cut in December might be appropriate if economic developments met their expectations for the upcoming interim meeting. Many participants (not necessarily FOMC voting members) indicated that, based on their economic outlook, maintaining the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year might be appropriate. 'Many' contains more than 'several.' The December vote looks set to be very close."
Data gaps exacerbate internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, sharply increasing the probability of keeping rates unchanged in December.
The data vacuum surrounding US employment data will extend beyond the Federal Reserve's December meeting, exacerbating policy uncertainty and significantly increasing the likelihood of a pause in rate cuts. Although the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release September non-farm payroll data on Thursday, it has been clarified that the next data release will not be until December 16th—the complete November dataset will include some October data. The Federal Reserve's December policy meeting will conclude on October 10th (Eastern Time). Meanwhile, the latest minutes of the Fed's October meeting revealed a significant division among officials regarding the need for a third consecutive rate cut. Against this backdrop, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of holding rates steady at the December meeting has risen from approximately 50% to nearly 70%.
Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Supports Natural Balance Sheet Reduction
In his keynote address on "Bank Supervision and the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet," Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that he strongly supports simplifying bank supervision and believes the Fed should consider exempting Treasury bonds and central bank reserves from calculations of bank leverage ratios. Milan indicated his support for a natural balance sheet runoff, but hoped the Fed would immediately halt quantitative tightening (QT) at the October 28-29 FOMC meeting. Milan pointed out that a smaller Fed balance sheet would reduce interest payments to banks, and the size of the balance sheet should depend on a "gradual stripping" of regulatory requirements.
Standard Chartered firmly believes the Fed will cut rates in December: Non-farm payroll data is likely to be very weak.
Despite significant divisions among Federal Reserve policymakers ahead of their December meeting, Standard Chartered says this is unlikely to prevent the Fed from continuing to cut rates, warning that weak expectations for the labor market will continue to dominate monetary policy. Steve Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research and North American Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered, stated in a recent report: “We maintain our view that the FOMC will cut rates in December, primarily because we believe that the employment data for September-November is likely to be very weak, which should be enough to push Fed centrists towards the rate-cutting camp.”
▌US Labor Department "technical glitch" leaks data: Continuing jobless claims surge
Data released by the U.S. government on Tuesday showed a sharp increase in the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits between mid-September and mid-October, suggesting that the unemployment rate may have been high in October as an uncertain economic environment dampens businesses' willingness to hire. A Labor Department spokesperson said, "A technical issue caused some data to be released prematurely," adding, "This issue is currently being corrected, and the complete data series will be released before the close of business on November 20, 2025." The data showed that the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits after the first week's claims (a measure considered a proxy for hiring) rose by 10,000 to 1.957 million in the week ending October 18, after seasonal adjustment. Continuing claims jumped significantly from 1.916 million in the week ending September 13.
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has dropped to 30%.
According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 32.7% (compared to 48.9% yesterday), while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 67.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 49.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 33.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 16.3%.
Golden Encyclopedia
What is RISC-V and why does Vitalik want to use it for smart contracts?
RISC-V, pronounced "risk five," is a modern open-source instruction set architecture (ISA) based on the principles of Reduced Instruction Set Computer (RISC). Simply put, it's like a blueprint defining a set of instructions that a processor can execute. RISC-V is designed to be highly modular, efficient, and flexible. Originally developed by the University of California in 2010, this open-source framework allows developers the flexibility to customize its functionality and use cases, and offers cost savings compared to proprietary ISAs like ARM or x86. RISC-V has a wide range of applications, from supercomputers to smartphones, and now to blockchains like Ethereum.
On April 20th, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin announced a radical new scaling proposal to replace the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with the RISC-V instruction set architecture, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of the network execution layer. The idea is that RISC-V is the best solution to the scalability limitations of blockchains. Adding RISC-V to Ethereum is currently only a proposal being discussed by the community and network governance. Buterin outlined several ways to implement the proposal, including running two virtual machines (VMs) or a complete switch to RISC-V. The primary idea behind supporting VMs is to allow contracts to be written and executed in either the existing EVM model or RISC-V. Another, more radical approach, involves modifying the protocol to transform existing EVM contracts. A major challenge with such a significant change is avoiding breaking existing decentralized applications (DApps) and smart contracts. Ethereum cannot risk breaking existing contracts written in the current EVM code. A transitional solution might involve using an interpreter—essentially a translation layer between different computational languages. This will allow developers to start building with RISC-V while ensuring that traditional EVM contracts continue to function without interruption.
