PA Daily News | Probability of Fed Rate Cut in December Rises to 81%; Q3 Crypto Venture Capital Hit Second High Since FTX Crash

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Today's top news highlights:

Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Tom Daly expressed support for a December rate cut, subsequently raising the probability of a December rate cut to 81%.

VanEck has submitted a revised registration document for its BNB ETF, with the ticker symbol set as VBNB.

Sandisk will be included in the S&P 500 index, while Strategy has once again been left out.

James Wynn predicts that BTC may reach $67,000 this week.

Venture capital investment in the crypto industry reached $4.65 billion in Q3, the second highest since the FTX crash.

Framework, an investor in Berachain, may have suffered a paper loss of over $50.8 million on its BEA holdings.

Macro

Shanghai Blockchain Innovation Fund Inaugurated

According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, at the 2025 Global Digital Commerce Conference, the Shanghai Blockchain Innovation Fund was officially launched. Simultaneously, Shanghai and Singapore jointly released their cooperative achievements on mutual recognition of digital identity and electronic authentication documents. The Mineral Data Overseas Export Standard Innovation Consortium was also launched, and blockchain letter of credit application scenarios were officially introduced. Furthermore, Shanghai Data Group and the National Data Development Research Institute jointly compiled and released the "White Paper on the Construction and Operation of Industry Trusted Data Space Based on Unified Data Infrastructure."

VanEck has submitted a revised registration document for its BNB ETF, with the ticker symbol set as VBNB.

According to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), VanEck submitted a revised Form S-1 Amendment No. 2 on November 21, 2025, for its BNB ETF registration statement. This ETF aims to track the price performance of BNB and is planned to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol VBNB. The fund currently does not engage in BNB pledging; any future pledging activities will be conducted through a third-party service provider, with investors notified in advance. Previous market reports indicated that the VanEck BNB ETF was registered in Delaware.

Sandisk will be included in the S&P 500 index, while Strategy has once again been left out.

According to Morningstar, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced Monday evening that computer storage device manufacturer Sandisk Corp. will officially join the S&P 500 index on November 28. The company will be moved from the S&P Small Cap 600 index to the S&P 500, replacing Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (ticker symbol: IPG), a company in the advertising and marketing sector. Furthermore, Sandisk beat out Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (ticker symbol: MSTR), which recently qualified for inclusion in the S&P 500. Strategy had previously failed to qualify in the September 2025 quarterly review.

Galaxy Digital is exploring becoming a market maker on prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital Inc. is in talks with Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. to become liquidity providers on their platforms, as prediction markets continue to gain traction, attracting retail demand and Wall Street interest. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz stated in an interview that Galaxy Digital has always focused on providing crypto infrastructure services to institutional clients. By becoming a market maker on these prediction trading platforms, the company would offer regular quotes, thereby improving the platforms' liquidity. He said, "We are currently testing market-making in prediction markets on a small scale, but I believe that eventually you will see us offering broader liquidity support."

Federal Reserve Bank of Canada President Tom Daly expressed support for a December rate cut, subsequently raising the probability of a December rate cut to 81%.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal cited by Jinshi, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly, a 2027 FOMC voting member, stated that she supports a rate cut next month because she believes the possibility of a sudden deterioration in the labor market is greater and more difficult to control than a sudden surge in inflation. In an interview on Monday, she said, "I'm not confident we can get ahead in the labor market. The labor market is fragile enough right now, and the risk lies in non-linear changes." She indicated that the risk of an inflationary surge is lower by comparison because tariff-driven cost increases are much more moderate than expected earlier this year. Daly's views are noteworthy, as although she does not have a vote on monetary policy this year, she rarely disagrees with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in public. At the December 9-10 meeting, Daly is likely to play a key role in resolving the disagreement within the interest rate-setting committee regarding whether to cut rates or pause rate hikes. Following Daly's remarks, CME's FedWatch tool showed an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December (compared to 69.4% yesterday), and a 19% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 65.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 14.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points is 20.6%.

Opinion

James Wynn predicts that BTC may reach $67,000 this week.

Cryptocurrency analyst James Wynn stated on social media that Bitcoin could reach $67,000 by the end of this week or earlier. He believes there is strong support and buying pressure in this price range, and the probability of this aligning with market trends is high. However, he emphasized that this is only a probability-based prediction, and market uncertainty remains. Previously, data showed that Huang Licheng was liquidated 71 times on Hyperliquid in November, followed closely by James Wynn and Andrew Tate with 26 and 19 liquidations respectively.

TD Cowen: Strategy's Bitcoin premium is nearing the lows of the "Crypto Winter," but we maintain our buy rating.

According to The Block, a recent report by TD Cowen indicates that Strategy's Bitcoin premium continues to decline and is currently "approaching the lows of the 2021-2022 ' Crypto Winter'." The report includes two updated premium charts (one looking back to 2020 and the other covering the last 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue new shares or purchase new Bitcoin through an market offering (ATM) yesterday, a move that has drawn renewed attention to its current premium level. The charts show that the current premium has fallen significantly from its peak at the end of last year and is gradually compressing to levels seen in late 2021 and early 2022. Despite this, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping its buy rating and $535 price target (approximately 200% higher than Strategy's current share price of around $180), believing that "achieving this target within a year is reasonably achievable." The report states, "We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price forecast. We expect Strategy to hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027, estimating its holdings value to exceed $185 billion by December 2027, or an intrinsic value of approximately $540 per share. The target price of $535 reflects zero premium to the intrinsic value per share in December 2027." The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has already put downward pressure on its share price, and it anticipates the company will be removed from the index and continue to face pressure under the shadow of MSCI inclusion.

Project Updates

Binance Alpha will delist CELB and AIBOT tokens due to issues related to over-issuance of tokens.

According to Binance's official Chinese-language announcement, due to on-chain data showing that the circulating supply of CELB and AIBOT tokens exceeded the project's original unlocking plan, Binance Alpha will delist these two assets at 17:00 (UTC+8) on November 25, 2025. Holders will be converted to USDC at the closing price on November 24, 2025: 1 CELB = 0.00007042 USDC and 1 AIBOT = 0.00042472 USDC respectively, and the funds will be transferred to their spot accounts within 3 days. Binance stated that if the project team is confirmed to have engaged in illegal activities, it will take further action.

Pump.fun's co-founders denied that the project cashed out USDC through Kraken.

In response to Lookonchain's claim that "Pump.fun has cashed out at least 436.5 million USDC through Kraken since October 15th," Pump.fun co-founder Sapijiju stated: "This is completely false. Pump.fun has never cashed out (i.e., the transactions between Kraken and Circle that Lookonchain alleges Pump.fun is involved in). The actual situation is that this is part of Pump.fun's fund management; the USDC obtained from the PUMP ICO has been transferred to different wallets to reinvest the company's operating funds into its business. Pump.fun has never directly cooperated with Circle."

OKX announced the launch of Dash (DASH).

OKX has announced the listing of Dash (DASH), with the following details: DASH deposits will open at 17:00 on November 25, 2025. Users can place orders in advance between 19:00 and 20:00 on November 26, 2025. DASH/USDT spot trading will officially open at 20:00 on November 26, 2025, and withdrawals will open at 22:00 on November 26, 2025.

MegaETH announced that the USDm pre-deposit channel will open at 22:00 today.

MegaETH announced on its X platform that the USDm pre-deposit channel will open today at 22:00 (UTC+8). The website will be online approximately one hour before the opening for Sonar validation, with a limit of $250 million. Depositors will receive USDm tokens on the MegaETH mainnet in December. Previously, it was reported that MegaETH would launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25th, with a total cap of $250 million.

Binance Alpha will list SUPERFORTUNE (GUA)

According to an official announcement, Binance Alpha will list SUPERFORTUNE (GUA) on November 27th. Eligible users can claim the airdrop using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha event page after trading opens. More details will be announced soon.

Binance Alpha has listed the cheesy penguin and BNBHolder tokens.

According to information on the official page, Binance Alpha has listed the cheesy penguin and BNBHolder tokens.

Lighter: Spot trading testnet is now live.

Cryptocurrency trading protocol Lighter announced on the X platform that its spot trading testnet is now live and welcomes trader feedback to help prepare for the mainnet launch. Previously, on November 11th, Lighter announced it had completed a $68 million funding round, led by Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital.

Berachain co-founders denied offering a "special refund right," stating that the relevant terms were compliant and precedents in the industry.

Regarding the claim that "Brevan Howard's subsidiary Nova Digital has a $25 million refund right to its investment in Berachain," Smokey the Bera, an anonymous co-founder of Berachain, responded on the X platform: "This malicious smear article is neither complete nor accurate. The facts are as follows: 1. A year ago, Brevan..." Howard led the Series B funding round through Nova's Abu Dhabi office, with investment terms identical to all other investors; Nova had proactively contacted Howard several months prior to lead the round. 2. Nova's compliance team requested an additional clause to prevent Berachain from failing to complete its TGE and go public, thus disqualifying the locked BERA tokens purchased during the funding round from becoming eligible investments through Nova's liquidity strategy. Therefore, a supplemental agreement was signed, committing Nova to undertake additional business arrangements, including an agreement to provide liquidity after the network launch; this agreement was not intended to enter into deals with uninterested parties or to mitigate post-launch losses, as such practices have precedent. 3. On the contrary, Nova remains one of Berachain's largest token holders, a liquidity provider, holding the locked BERA tokens from the Series B funding round as well as the liquidity tokens BERA purchased on the open market, consistently supporting us and increasing its holdings over time.

Talus: Launches LP-based airdrop mechanism; pre-registration portal now live.

The Talus Foundation announced on the X platform that it will launch an LP-based airdrop mechanism. Talus will airdrop yield-generating liquidity positions in the form of yUS tokens. yUS is a fungible token that encapsulates automated liquidity provision strategies for the US-USDC trading pool on Momentum DEX through the NODO AI Vault. Participants in the Talus Token Generation Event (TGE) community airdrop include Tally NFT holders (snapshot EDT time November 17th, 10:00), community center participants (top 500 on the leaderboard in Q1, Q2, and Q3, and holding a Talizen Discord role), participants in the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) event, active Talus Kaito users, and Kaito stakers. The airdrop process is as follows: Phase 1: Pre-registration (November 24th - November 28th). All eligible recipients must complete pre-registration during this period to qualify. The relevant website is already online. Phase 2: Claim (to be announced). All registered recipients must claim their rewards within this three-day window. No exceptions will be made for late applications. Previously, in September, it was reported that TalusNetwork, a decentralized AI agent infrastructure layer, had raised over $10 million in funding.

Irys: The IRYS token airdrop application will begin at 20:00 today.

Irys, a programmable data chain platform, announced on the Galxe platform that the IRYS token airdrop application link is now live. The application period is from 20:00 Beijing time on November 25th to 20:00 on December 25th, with a snapshot time of November 11th. Furthermore, Irys stated that the top 10,000 participants on Galxe will receive the airdrop; all Genesis NFT holders who have previously registered for the airdrop are eligible. Previously, Irys announced the IRYS token economics: 20% initial circulating supply, with 8% allocated to the airdrop and future incentives.

Coinbase will launch spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX).

According to an official announcement, Coinbase will launch spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX). In supported trading regions, the FLUID-USD and WMTX-USD trading pairs will open on or after 01:00 Beijing time on November 26, 2025, provided liquidity conditions are met. Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) will be available for trading on the coinbase․.com website, the Coinbase app, and the Coinbase Advanced platform. Institutions can trade Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) directly through the Coinbase exchange.

Important data

A whale has continued to add $22.2 million to its short position in HYPE, bringing the current short position size to $67 million.

According to social media user MLM, a whale has continued to increase its short position in HYPE after a previous liquidation, adding approximately 700,000 HYPE tokens (worth $22.2 million), pushing its liquidation range to $33.37 to $33.57, only about 5% higher than the current price. Currently, this whale total short position has reached 2.1 million HYPE tokens (worth $67.1 million), using $6.9 million in margin, and it continues to increase its position. Previous reports indicated that Hyperliquid will unlock $308 million worth of HYPE on November 29th, representing 2.66% of the circulating supply.

An Ethena Labs-affiliated wallet purchased 25 million ENA tokens from Bybit, worth $6.7 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a wallet associated with Ethena Labs purchased 25 million ENA tokens from Bybit, worth $6.7 million. This wallet currently holds 285.15 million ENA tokens, with a total value of $76.46 million.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $151 million yesterday, with only Fidelity FBTC experiencing a net inflow.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $151 million yesterday (November 24th, Eastern Time). The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net inflow was the Fidelity ETF (FBTC), with a net inflow of $15.4865 million. FBTC's historical total net inflow has reached $11.814 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow was the BlackRock ETF (IBIT), with a net outflow of $149 million. IBIT's historical total net inflow has reached $62.554 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.202 billion, with an ETF net asset value ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalization) of 6.54%. The historical cumulative net inflow has reached $57.484 billion.

After a year of silence, a whale withdrew 10,026 ETH from Binance, worth $29.16 million.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, a whale withdrew 10,026 ETH from Binance after a year of silence, worth $29.16 million.

The 40.71 million TRX previously purchased by WLFI have been transferred to HTX in the past 10 hours.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, the 40.71 million TRX previously purchased by WLFI has been deposited into HTX in the past 10 hours, with the purpose unknown. Ten months ago, WLFI purchased $40.17 million worth of TRX at an average price of $0.2415, totaling $9.85 million. Yesterday, WLFI Strategic Reserve conducted a small test transfer of 147 TRX to address 0x6A2...C99c9, which was subsequently deposited into HTX. Ten hours ago, all 40.68 million TRX were transferred and deposited into HTX in batches, worth $11.23 million. WLFI previously purchased a basket of tokens including LINK/AAVE/ENA/MOVE/ONDO, which were also deposited into Coinbase, claiming it was "not a sale, but a reallocation of assets for daily business purposes." However, this is the first time they have deposited into HTX.

CZ denied that Jackie Chan would portray CZ in a documentary.

In response to rumors that Jackie Chan would play CZ in the upcoming Netflix biographical documentary "The Crypto King,"CZ denied the rumors, saying, "That's false. I like Jackie Chan, but he's 71 years old. Let him go! I'm still working hard to finish this book. The last 5% of editing always takes up 95% of the time."

Investment and Financing/Acquisition

Venture capital investment in the crypto industry reached $4.65 billion in Q3, the second highest since the FTX crash.

According to a report by Cointelegraph, a research report released by Galaxy Digital on Monday shows that total venture capital investment in the crypto industry reached $4.65 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 290% increase quarter-over-quarter, marking the second-highest level since the FTX crash in 2022 (the highest being $4.8 billion in the first quarter of this year). A total of 414 deals were completed this quarter, with seven large deals, including Revolut's $1 billion funding round and Kraken's $500 million funding round, accounting for half of the total funding. US companies received 47% of the investment, while Singaporean and UK companies received 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. Research Director Alex Thorn pointed out that stablecoins, AI, and blockchain infrastructure continue to attract capital, but as the industry matures, the proportion of pre-seed investments is gradually declining. Venture capital activity in the past two years has remained lower than the levels seen during the 2021-2022 bull market. Thorn analyzed that factors such as the waning popularity of gaming and NFT sectors, the diversion of funds to the AI ​​sector, and the interest rate environment have collectively led to a stagnation in venture capital. Meanwhile, compliant investment channels such as spot ETFs are competing with traditional venture capital for institutional funds.

Brevan Howard has reportedly received a $25 million "refund right" on his investment in Berachain.

According to The Block, Unchained columnist Jack Kubinec revealed in his latest report that Brevan Howard's venture capital investment in Berachain was virtually "risk-free." Documents released this Monday show that Berachain granted Brevan's crypto investment subsidiary, Nova Digital, a special right—a one-year refund guarantee on its $25 million Series B funding round. This means that although Brevan co-led a $69 million funding round for Berachain at a $1.5 billion valuation, it can still recover its entire investment after the token generation event on February 6th. This right is reportedly valid until February 6th, 2026. Kubinec stated in the report: "This refund clause completely protects Brevan's fund principal from risk, which is very different from traditional venture capital models. If Berachain's BERA token performs well, the fund will obtain excess returns; if the token performs poorly, the fund can exercise its refund right." Currently, the BERA token is trading at approximately $1, a drop of about 67% from Brevan's investment cost of $3. According to The Block data platform, the token's fully diluted valuation is currently $536.7 million. The Series B funding round was led by Framework Ventures, with participation from Arrington Capital, Hack VC, Polychain, and Tribe Capital. Berachain also completed a $42 million Series A funding round in 2023. It is currently unclear whether other investors also have a refund right.

Framework, an investor in Berachain, may have suffered a paper loss of over $50.8 million on its BEA holdings.

According to Unchained, as of the end of Q2 2025, Framework Ventures' $72.4 million investment in Berachain's Series B funding round, which acquired 21,145,476 BRA tokens, has resulted in a paper loss of over $50.8 million at current prices. Framework Ventures and Brevan Howard's Nova Fund reportedly co-led Berachain's Series B funding round. Previously, it was reported that Brevan Howard had a $25 million "refund right" on his Berachain investment; however, Berachain co-founders subsequently denied offering Brevan Howard a "special refund right," stating that the terms were compliant and precedent in the industry.

Exodus will acquire W3C Corp, the parent company of Baanx and Monavate, for $175 million.

According to CoinDesk, crypto wallet company Exodus Movement (NYSE American: EXOD) is acquiring W3C Corp, the parent company of cryptocurrency card and payment companies Baanx and Monavate, for $175 million. The deal is funded by the company's existing cash and financing provided by Galaxy Digital, using Exodus's Bitcoin holdings as collateral. Baanx and Monavate have been working with institutions such as Visa, Mastercard, and MetaMask to develop cryptocurrency cards and user-controlled Web3 payment services. Overall, this transaction will make Exodus one of the few self-custody wallet providers capable of controlling the entire payment experience from wallet to card. Exodus stated that it will take over the underlying card and payment technology stack and gain the ability to issue payment cards through networks such as Visa, Mastercard, and Discover, while expanding its operations to the US, UK, and EU to support new products and partnerships. Exodus also stated that this infrastructure is expected to enhance the capabilities of enterprise clients whose customers transact through Exodus's XO Swap application. The transaction is subject to regular adjustments and approval processes and is expected to be completed in 2026.

Institutional holdings

AVAX One disclosed that it spent $110 million to increase its holdings of AVAX tokens, bringing its total holdings to 13.8 million tokens.

According to Cryptopolitan, Nasdaq-listed AVAX One announced that between November 5th and November 23rd, 2025, it spent $110 million to purchase 9,377,475 AVAX tokens, with a weighted average purchase price of $11.73 per token. This brings its total AVAX token holdings to over 13.8 million, worth approximately $193 million at current token prices. AVAX One has retained approximately $35 million in cash for further token purchases and share buybacks.

Multicoin Capital purchased $10.94 million worth of AAVE tokens today.

According to on-chain analyst Ember, Multicoin Capital continued to purchase AAVE today through Galaxy Digital. Over the past month and a half, they have acquired 278,000 AAVE (US$49.52 million) at an average price of US$228, resulting in a paper loss of US$13.9 million. After the sharp drop on October 11th, they purchased 210,000 AAVE (US$51.32 million) at US$244; today they purchased 61,637 AAVE (US$10.94 million) at US$177.

Strategy has not yet disclosed relevant data, and may not have increased its BTC holdings last week.

Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), posted a chart with the caption "Probably Nothing," showing that Bitcoin-backed credit market trading volume has been steadily increasing since mid-September, reaching nearly $20 million in the week ending November 17-21, a 50.8% increase from the previous week. $STRC (Strike) was the main contributor, exceeding $10.51 million, followed by $STRD, $STRF, and $STRK. Historically, Strategy typically discloses its Bitcoin holdings data for the previous week on Mondays. As of now, Strategy's official website has not released any relevant data, suggesting that it may not have increased its BTC holdings last week.

BitMine increased its holdings by nearly 70,000 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 3,629,701 ETH, representing 3% of the total ETH supply.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) added 69,822 ETH to its holdings last week, bringing its total holdings to 3,629,701 ETH, worth approximately $10.2 billion, representing 3% of the total ETH supply.

Enlivex plans to raise $212 million to purchase Rain tokens, aiming to create a digital asset vault for prediction markets.

According to The Block, Nasdaq-listed biopharmaceutical company Enlivex Therapeutics announced it will raise $212 million through a PIPE private placement to purchase Rain tokens as the core reserve for its Digital Asset Vault (DAT), claiming the project is the first DAT built around a prediction market token. Rain is a decentralized prediction market protocol on the Arbitrum blockchain. Following the completion of this fundraising, former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will join the Enlivex board of directors.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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