Tom Lee, whose nickname has become "Crypto Forever Bull," has repeatedly declared in financial media interviews that Bitcoin and Ethereum will break through their all-time highs in January 2026. However, internal reports from Fundstrat, where he works, show a completely opposite price range.
Previously, a report sent to paid clients by Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, was leaked, describing the first half of 2026 as a "deep pullback window." The report predicted lows for the three major cryptocurrencies: $60,000 to $65,000 for BTC, $1,800 to $2,000 for ETH, and $50 to $75 for SOL.
The Original Sin of Seller Research
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju explained this phenomenon in an article on the X platform, pointing out that the role of sell-side analysts is not prediction, but rather maintaining trading interest. He commented:
Tom Lee is a staunch bull, with his long-short ratio at approximately 10 to 0. When a pullback becomes unavoidable, he might adjust it to 9 to 1 at most.
The dilemma for sell-side research is that going short is tantamount to cutting off their own revenue stream. A 10:0 scoreline isn't reckless, but rather a marketing instinct; before the loud pronouncements even begin, institutions have already bought their hedging positions.
Key variables at the beginning of 2026
Sean Farrell's report identifies the main reasons for the decline as the potential escalation of tariff disputes in the second year of the Trump administration's administration, and risk aversion caused by slowing returns on AI investments. If these two forces intensify simultaneously, "high-beta" crypto assets will be the first to bear the brunt. The report describes the price of SOL as a thermometer for market deleveraging; a drop to around $50 indicates that leverage has been largely cleared, and only then will institutions resume increasing their positions.
It's worth noting that Fundstrat views this pullback as a "re-entry" rather than the "start of a bear market." For institutions, with cash and liquidity on hand, low prices present a window to accumulate shares. However, for retail investors who entered at higher prices, it could mean a 50% drop in assets.
So who is Tom Lee shouting to? The conclusion is simple: no matter how loudly he shouts, it's all for the institutions to hear.
