「USDT Transfer Trend」 Data Update: The Signal Before a Move❓ Not sure how many of you remember, but about a month ago, when I first shared my “shallow bear scenario,” I posted a series of analyses (x.com/market_beggar/status/199...…) explaining why I was willing to go 70% in at the 82K bottom. One of the key indicators I relied on back then was the “USDT Transfer Trend.” So today, I’m back to update you on the latest status of this indicator 👇 As usual, let’s quickly recap the core logic behind this signal 📝: 🔸 Smooth the total USDT inflow/outflow volume to exchanges using a 30-day SMA 🔸 Heavy USDT inflows into exchanges = market is hungry to buy the dip 🔸 Heavy USDT outflows from exchanges = capital is taking profits and exiting For a deeper dive into this concept, you can check the linked thread below 🔗 // Here’s another pattern I want to share with you today 📊: “Massive green bars” on the indicator + “followed by a red flip” = signal for a trend kick-off As shown in the attached chart, I’ve marked the times this happened from the 2023 bear bottom until now with black circles 🔘. You can clearly see: “Every time these conditions were met, a solid pump followed 📈” Not only that, similar setups happened in 2022~2023, like Feb 2022, Jan 2023, Mar 2023, etc. For chart clarity, I’ll just mention these dates in text. The reasoning is pretty straightforward: 1️⃣ Massive green bars 🟩 = Large capital entering the market (see thread below) 2️⃣ Then the indicator flips red 🟥: Since the algo uses a 30-day SMA, after the huge USDT inflows, those data points get dropped after 30 days, causing the indicator value to drop quickly and turn red. Sharp eyes might notice this matches the idea I’ve hammered home many times: “The market’s recovery period after a major dump is usually 1-2 months.” In other words: 1-2 months after heavy dip-buying capital flows in, there’s a decent probability of a rally 📈 But a heads up ⚠️: This “green-to-red” pattern isn’t a cyclical signal, it’s more of a “mid-term swing” indicator. The classic example is Feb 2022: After the market nuked from 69K to 33K, the signal appeared in Feb, BTC bounced nearly 50% from 33K, then topped again in April and started a new leg down. That rebound turned out to be “a mid-structure in a deep bear market.” Fast forward to now, regardless of what’s next: The huge dip-buying capital from a month ago is definitely bullish for future upside ✅ The red flip in the indicator suggests the recovery phase may be ending; Whether we smoothly finish the “shallow bear scenario” or see another continuation dump, no one has a crystal ball — we can’t know for sure. But going by this pattern, at least one decent rally is likely on the table 🎁 That’s it for today — hope this helps 🫡 // 📚 Related Reading Shallow Bear Dip-Buying Series (Full): Summary Thread x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (1): BTC Capital Inflow Trend Finds a Bottom x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (2): US Sell Pressure Eases x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (3): Big Capitulation Events Hit the Market x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… Series (4): Massive Dip-Buying Capital Flows In x.com/market_beggar/status/199...… // 【Ad Time】 “If you’re holding a bag of USDT, but not ready to buy the dip yet…💰” Here’s a solid place for your funds: Bitget Wallet Onchain Yield ✅ Long-term APY = 10%, sourced from AAVE + Bitget Wallet’s ongoing subsidy ✅ Stablecoin yield (USDC), start from just 1 USDT, withdraw anytime ✅ Transparent, no rehypothecation, no loop lending, low risk profile If you’re interested, you can register using my invite code below 👇 Invite Code: “3jTNi6” (manual binding required) Plus, Bitget Wallet is currently running an exclusive “Mr. Beggar’s Booster Coupon” promo 🔥 You can get an extra 2~18.8% on top of the base 10% rate! Only 50 coupons available, DM me if you’re interested 🫡