Gold continues to hit new highs, stocks rise, is the Christmas rally really here? The Santa Claus rally, also known as the Christmas rally, is a classic seasonal phenomenon. For example, the probability of #US stocks rising during this period is 76% to 80%, with the S&P 500 rising more than 7% in its highest Christmas week, and the historical average increase is around 1.3%. Therefore, if we can make good use of this rally, it shouldn't be a problem to get off to a good start for next year's trading. 1. Will the crypto market rise or fall? According to historical data, the crypto market has risen 9 times during the Christmas rally, with a probability of rising of about 82%, but there were also significant declines in 2021 and 2022. 2. Will #Bitcoin have a Christmas rally this year? In previous years, it was highly likely, but this year it may be more difficult. Because this year, after #BTC corrected from its October high, it has been fluctuating around $90k, neither rising nor falling significantly. The reason for this is poor liquidity and macroeconomic headwinds. While Christmas might alleviate emotional stress and a return of funds is possible after the holiday, this effect is unlikely to be sustained. Currently, funds are flowing into gold and silver rather than BTC, highlighting the poor market sentiment. 3. What do KOLs think? @laofeiyyds: The longer the consolidation, the higher the potential breakout. BTC will break $100,000 by Christmas, ending the short-term bear market. From now on, I'm only bullish, not bearish. @Bqlsj2023: Unemployment claims data is important. If it exceeds expectations, BTC might move upwards. There's always a post-Chinese New Year rally around Christmas. @CatoKt4: During periods of US stock market closure or low liquidity, BTC might experience a technical dip or rise due to market downturn, followed by a gradual correction after Christmas. @Guilin_Chen_: The US stock market as a whole $SPX and $IXIC are already in the top range and are currently undergoing sector rotation at the end of the bull market; $NVDA $MSFT $AAPL $META $AMZN have all entered a correction phase following the rise since April of this year. @BTC__options: December was a low-volatility month, and I believe the next two weeks will also be low-volatility, and most likely a gradual decline. 4. Expectations for the First Quarter of Next Year The significance of the Christmas market lies in its directional influence on the future market. Because this period coincides with a macroeconomic vacuum, without any positive or negative policy developments, it's important to observe whether funds choose to buy or sell risky assets. If significant funds flow in at this time, it will reflect market confidence and lay a foundation for sentiment in the new year. Conversely, a lack of inflow indicates weak confidence in the performance of risky assets next year, suggesting frequent volatility in the first quarter. Currently, before the holiday, the index has already fallen below 88k, with a decline in turnover, clearly demonstrating the fragility of current market sentiment. Next, major institutions will be on holiday, further tightening liquidity. If Santa Claus doesn't arrive soon, Christmas might turn into a Christmas disaster…

Just wait, just endure it, wait until next February...