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I agree with Brother Ni's summary of the reasons for the negative premium of USDT. The core of the negative premium lies in the following two points: First, in early December, thirteen ministries jointly issued a document further tightening regulations, which was discussed at the time as unfavorable to OTC and cryptocurrency traders. Second, the recent market downturn and the approaching year-end have led to a greater desire to cash out, naturally resulting in a negative premium. Another important driving factor for the recent appreciation of the RMB is the peak season for export companies to settle foreign exchange at the end of the year: The fourth quarter is a traditional seasonal peak for foreign exchange settlement. With strong exports in 2025 (USD-denominated exports increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first 10 months), coupled with expectations of a Fed rate cut causing dollar volatility, companies are more willing to settle foreign exchange at the current favorable exchange rate level to avoid potential future losses. Under these circumstances, export companies (especially those supported by a trade surplus) tend to settle foreign exchange as soon as possible to lock in profits. The settlement rate has risen from around 60% at the beginning of the year to around 70%. I checked the data: This year, banks' foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of clients gradually shifted from a deficit at the beginning of the year (such as approximately -$39.2 billion in January) to a surplus, which continued to expand, reaching a monthly surplus of $51.7 billion in September (a recent high). The cumulative surplus for the first 10 months further increased. This directly increased the demand for RMB in the foreign exchange market, pushing the exchange rate upward.

Phyrex
@Phyrex_Ni
聊聊 USDT 对人民币负溢价的原因 其实 USDT 对人民币溢价高于 USD 对人民币的溢价是有三个主要原因: x.com/_FORAB/status/…
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