"7 Crypto Black Swan Events to Watch Out For in 2026" Biteye's editors have put a lot of effort into summarizing institutional predictions for 2026, which basically represent the institutional consensus on the market. However, once a consensus is established, it doesn't help with price predictions because current prices already reflect that consensus. After a conversation with Grok, we summarized the accuracy rate of institutional predictions over the past four years. The average accuracy rate is only 37%, meaning roughly two out of three predictions are wrong. Why is the accuracy rate so low? Because cryptocurrencies are often susceptible to black swan events, once consensus is broken, all judgments are overturned. I've summarized the crypto black swan events we must be wary of in 2026: 1. A breakthrough in quantum computing leads to a collapse in Bitcoin confidence and a price crash. 2. An unexpected interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve causes a significant correction in Bitcoin as a risk asset. 3. The midterm election results lead to a pro-crypto Congress, shifting crypto policy. 4. The failure of the Clarity bill, a US crypto market structure bill, slows institutional adoption of crypto. 5. USDT de-pegging due to reserve issues or a banking crisis triggers a chain reaction, destroying confidence in the stablecoin industry. 6. Large DeFi protocols are attacked, amplifying to RWA, causing systemic risk. 7. AI technology experiences its second revolutionary leap after ChatGPT, gaining full attention from the capital markets, further neglecting Web3. Do you think this is just unnecessary worry? twitter.com/DeFiTeddy2020/stat...

Trump tweets -> 1011 -> Bull market turns into bear market 😂

The probabilities of numbers 1 and 2 are too low. The probabilities of numbers 3 and 4 are also not high. Number 5 has a slight probability, but it's not very high. I think numbers 6 and 7 are possible.

A black swan event is something that everyone considers to have a low probability of happening, but then it suddenly occurs, causing chaos in the financial markets.