Kaiko Research recently concluded in a report that the cryptocurrency market will enter 2026 amidst a shift toward institutionalization, rather than a speculative cycle. The analysis found that institutional investor-led integration, regulatory clarity, stablecoin-based liquidity, and a mature derivatives market are replacing the past reliance on individual narratives.
The cryptocurrency market in 2026 should be understood as an extension of institutional integration rather than a "new cycle." According to Kaiko Research , exchanges, products, and assets are growing in a more sophisticated and normative environment, suggesting that policy decisions and regulatory frameworks have a far greater impact than global macroeconomic trends or speculation based on individual projects. In particular, the Genius Act enacted in the United States stipulates a federal oversight framework for stablecoin issuance, providing a path for dollar-based digital assets to enter the traditional financial system.
The European Union also plans to ensure regulatory consistency across crypto assets through the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) law, which will be fully implemented starting in June. This will unify standards for stablecoins, exchanges, and user protection across Europe, creating a clearer and more reliable trading environment. Meanwhile, the Basel Committee's proposed financial soundness standards for banks' exposure to crypto assets are facing potential delays due to the US and UK's refusal to accept them, raising the possibility that they will be postponed. This has emerged as a key variable in determining the next direction of institutionalization.
Monetary policy is also a key variable. The US Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in early 2026, and this policy shift could be favorable for risky assets like Bitcoin (BTC). Kaiko Research highlighted the negative correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin, analyzing that the Fed's policy flexibility following the retirement of Chairman Jerome Powell could have a key impact on the market. Macroeconomic indicators such as rising unemployment and slowing inflation justify the Fed's accommodative stance, which is likely to positively impact the cryptocurrency market.
Uncertainty in the technology sector cannot be overlooked. If the risk of overvaluation of AI-focused big tech companies materializes, the ripple effect could extend to the cryptocurrency market. Cryptocurrency projects targeting AI-based services are emerging and becoming increasingly interconnected, but liquidity remains limited. Projects like The Graph (GRT) are forming a significant technological cornerstone, but their liquidity is significantly lower than Bitcoin's, making them susceptible to significant volatility during market turmoil.
In terms of stablecoin liquidity, the top five issuers, including USDC and USDT, account for over 90% of the total market capitalization, and their circulation is considered a key indicator of on-chain dollar flow. In particular, USDT and USDC demonstrated unparalleled resilience in the market liquidity test on October 10th, establishing themselves as central players in settlements, trading, and collateral use. In fact, their average market depth is $8-10 million, approaching the level of BTC.
The growth of perpetual derivatives exchanges (DEXs) symbolizes a structural shift. Hyperliquid has reached approximately 20% of Binance's trading volume in just two years, and has reached parity with OKX in both trading volume and open interest (OOI). Kaiko Research attributed this growth to increased trading efficiency, reduced slippage, and improved liquidation structures. Other DEX platforms, such as Aster, Lighter, and Apex, are following a similar trend and rapidly replacing centralized exchanges.
The lending sector of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market is also expanding rapidly. For example, Aave has seen both deposits and loans increase more than fivefold since 2024, with total deposits now exceeding $40 billion and outstanding loans exceeding $20 billion. This indicates that the DeFi ecosystem is increasingly embracing sustainable, rather than one-time, asset flows.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is moving toward clear institutionalization, with stablecoin liquidity, a maturing derivatives market, and a well-developed regulatory environment forming the foundation for the market. Clear compliance, macroeconomic policies, and governance, driven by institutions rather than a narrative centered on individual investors, are expected to emerge as key drivers of the future cryptocurrency market.
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