Hyperliquid reduced the amount of HYPE Token unlocked by the team by 30% compared to the initial plan, thereby easing supply pressure compared to the original design.
The adjustment is taking place against a backdrop of weakening DEX/L1 revenue and increasing competition in the perpetual DEX segment, drawing market attention to the impact on buybacks, burns, and HYPE price volatility in the short term.
- The HYPE unlock schedule has been moved to the 6th of each month, and the team's token pool has been reduced from 1.7 million to 1.2 million Token.
- December revenue fell 30% compared to November, causing a sharp slowdown in the pace of buybacks.
- Hyperliquid's market share in the perps market decreased from 75% (May) to 14% (December) due to competition.
Hyperliquid reduces the team's unlock Token by 30% and postpones the launch to the 6th.
Hyperliquid adjusted its unlock schedule: instead of the 29th, the unlocking mechanism moved to the 6th of each month, and the team's unlock volume decreased by 30% from 1.7 million to 1.2 million HYPE.
According to the previous unlock schedule, approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens (worth $259 million USD) were expected to be unlocked by December 29th, including the team's share. After the update, the unlock date is standardized to the 6th of each month.
Notably, the team's unlock contribution decreased from 1.7 million to 1.2 million HYPE tokens, representing a 30% reduction in supply pressure from the contributing group compared to expectations. This could alter how the market prices dilution risk in subsequent unlock cycles.
Steven (Yunt Capital) suggests the update may be related to subdued revenue and hypothesizes that unlocking is proportional to the size of the fund/AF's repurchase of supply. He raises the question on X about the relationship between revenue and the unlock mechanism.
"December revenue was also lower; could unlocks be proportional to the supply that AF purchased?"
– Steven, Yunt Capital, X
Declining sales weakened buybacks and sentiment toward HYPE.
Hyperliquid revenue declined after the crash on October 10th and continued to weaken as monthly unlocks began in November, slowing down buyback/burn rates and impacting market sentiment.
Overall revenue for DEXs and L1s was described as declining following the volatility on October 10th. This downward trend continued into the period after the monthly unlock mechanism launched in November.
One analyst commented on X that the current trend “doesn’t show as much of a growth story” as popular expectations. However, broader market factors may also be contributing, as Q4 trading activity cooled amid widespread sell-offs.
According to revenue analytics site Hyperliquid , November revenue was $105 million, while December revenue reached $73 million, a 30% month-on-month decrease. Since a large portion of revenue was used for buybacks and burns, this decline could significantly impact expected valuations.
The daily pace of buybacks also reflects weakness: according to the buyback tracking dashboard, the value of buybacks has fallen from nearly $3 million to below $500,000 since November. This reduces the mechanical demand supporting HYPE in the short term.
Hyperliquid's market share has declined sharply due to competition from Lighter and Aster.
Hyperliquid's perps market share fell from 75% (May) to 14% (December) as competition increased, particularly from Lighter and Aster, during a quiet trading period.
Analyst Finch linked the low revenue and declining user engagement to the stagnant market, while highlighting competitors like Lighter, which attracted traders through "farming" Airdrop incentives.
While some expect user behavior to change after Lighter's TGE, Finch warns that Lighter's announcement of Season 3 farming could further retain traders and make it difficult for Hyperliquid to regain liquidation immediately.
Market share data reveals a significant decline: competition from Lighter and Aster [ASTER] is believed to have contributed to Hyperliquid's market share falling from 75% in May to 14% in December, according to the Dune perps dashboard . This represents a decrease of over 60 percentage points over this period.
HYPE prices are recovering within an upward channel, with $27 being a key level.
HYPE has been recovering steadily since mid-December and forming an upward channel; if it surpasses $27, the near-term target zone is $30–$31.
Amidst pressure from fundamental indicators such as revenue and market share, price movements have shown a stable rebound since mid-December. The pattern is described as an ascending channel, indicating that buying pressure is gradually raising the short-term Dip .
The immediate resistance level mentioned is $27. If the price breaks through this level, the rally could extend to the $30–$31 region. Conversely, failure to break through resistance could make HYPE more sensitive to subsequent unlocks and changes in buyback speed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How has Hyperliquid changed the HYPE unlock schedule?
The unlock schedule has been moved to the 6th of each month. Previously, approximately 9.9 million HYPE tokens were expected to be unlocked on December 29th according to the old schedule.
By what price has the Hyperliquid team's unlockable Token portion dropped?
The team's unlock count decreased from 1.7 million to 1.2 million HYPE accounts, a 30% reduction compared to the previous plan.
How did Hyperliquid's revenue change in December compared to November?
December revenue was $73 million compared to $105 million in November, a 30% decrease month-on-month.
Why has Hyperliquid's buyback rate dropped sharply?
Because the majority of revenue is used for buybacks and burns, when revenue declined, the daily buyback volume also decreased from nearly $3 million to below $500,000 since November.
From what level to what level did Hyperliquid's market share decrease?
Market share reportedly fell from 75% in May to 14% in December in the perps segment, amid increased competition from Lighter and Aster.
