Bitcoin is entering the year-end in a rather contradictory situation. Institutional adoption of Bitcoin has never been stronger, yet the price remains hesitant, affected by low liquidation , selling pressure from long-term holders, and uneven capital flows across the globe.
As the market heads toward 2026, the question is no longer whether Bitcoin's value remains attractive, but when the price will truly reflect it.
Thin liquidation leads to increased short-term volatility.
Bitcoin is ending the year with the typical holiday season volatility, rather than driven by fundamental new dynamics.
"Market liquidation continues to be affected by the holiday season, so periods of significant volatility in the spot market are understandable," analysts from QCP commented.
Experts also believe that this volatility stems primarily from voluntary buying, not from forced position adjustments. QCP added that the buying demand appears to originate from both the spot and perpetual contract markets under conditions of liquidation .
Part of this buying pressure came from Strategy , which announced in a filing on Monday that it had purchased an additional 1,229 Bitcoin last week for a total value of $108.8 million, equivalent to an Medium price of $88,568 per coin.
The options market shows that the uptrend remains fragile.
Following the major options contract expiration on Friday, Bitcoin perpetual contract funding on Deribit surged from near zero to over 30%, indicating increased optimism from market makers.
According to QCP, investors who previously held Longing gamma positions before expiration, helping to keep prices stable within a range, are now facing increased risk as prices rise. When Bitcoin prices increase, they are forced to buy spot or call options near the expiration date to hedge against risk, inadvertently pushing prices even higher.
QCP Capital's latest report on Monday noted strong buying activity in the perpetual contract market and high demand for Bitcoin call options. QCP believes that if the price remains above $94,000, the market could see a strong buying pressure driven by technical factors.
Conversely, short-term risk hedging has eased. The put option skew has narrowed after large investors decided not to renew their $85,000 put position expiring in December.
In addition, approximately 50% of the total value of open positions vanished after Friday's record expiration, leaving many investors temporarily on the sidelines. According to QCP Capital, volatility will reappear as new positions are built, but the specific direction remains unclear.
Asians buy as US sells.
This uncertainty is manifesting itself quite differently in various regions. Laser Digital describes the past week as a quiet period, typical of the holiday season.
However, the most striking feature is the clear discrepancy in price representation across time zones. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped by more than 3% during US trading hours, but recovered when Asian trading began.
A report by Laser Digital suggests that the primary reason is year-end tax-related losses in the US, amidst a year where crypto has underperformed many other asset classes globally. This has led to continuous selling in the US, while foreign investors have been quietly accumulating.
Despite a relatively quiet market, Messari experts emphasize that crypto is increasingly being adopted at the institutional level. The amount of stablecoins issued is at record levels, and regulators are beginning to discuss on-chain market infrastructure.
"But market sentiment has almost never been this bad," Messari noted in its year-end report, pointing to the widening gap between investor sentiment and the reality of the situation.
Why Bitcoin will lag behind in 2025
Bitcoin's less-than-positive performance compared to gold and stocks towards the end of 2025 has led many to doubt Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. Gold prices have risen by over 60% since the beginning of the year, stock indices have consistently reached new highs, while Bitcoin has been slightly in the red YTD.
Messari argues that Bitcoin's weakness doesn't stem from its inherent nature, but rather from its increasing supply.
Large, long-term holder have been consistently selling off in 2025, leveraging strong institutional liquidation . Earlier this year, Galaxy Digital facilitated a transaction where a Satoshi-era address sold 80,000 BTC in a single transaction. on-chain data shows that wallets holding between 1,000 and 100,000 BTC have released hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins into the market YTD.
At the same time, two key drivers of demand stalled. Inflows into digital asset treasuries weakened from October, and spot Bitcoin ETFs – previously stable buyers – also turned net sellers.
The market was forced to absorb the increased supply just as the inflow of new money was disrupted.
Messari doesn't think this is a long-term problem. "If you're unsure, look at the long-term picture," experts say, emphasizing that Bitcoin has experienced many deeper and longer dips in previous cycles before recovering strongly.
Bitcoin price forecast framework for 2026
Looking further ahead, Messari argues that Bitcoin should no longer be judged solely on its four-year cycle as before. As a macro asset, Bitcoin's price will increasingly be influenced by major factors such as monetary policy, institutional Capital allocation, and government decisions.
Nevertheless, Messari experts still provide optimistic price ranges for 2026:
- The $86,000–$90,000 level represents strong structural support, bolstered by reduced spot buying demand and downside risk hedging.
- $94,000 is a crucial price trigger. If this level is surpassed, the market could see strong buying activity related to gamma and 2026 call options could be adjusted higher.
- The $100,000–$110,000 range is a strong resistance zone both psychologically and technically, and profit-taking from long-term holder is likely to occur there.
To surpass these milestones and for Bitcoin's price to reach a new peak in 2026, a major cycle of institutional money inflows is needed – through ETFs, corporate treasuries, or government accumulation.
Long-term confidence remains strong.
Despite the short-term pessimism, Messari analysts remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term trend.
"Bitcoin has established a superior position compared to all other crypto assets and is undoubtedly the leading cryptocurrency today," analysts commented.
Bitcoin continues to outperform most other major Token for many years, thanks to strong institutional demand. Spot ETFs, notably BlackRock's IBIT, have altered the market structure, while nearly 200 companies now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Looking ahead to 2026, Messari bases its confidence on fundamental factors. Amid rising global debt, tightening monetary policy, and falling real yields, Bitcoin's transparent monetary policy, self-storage capabilities, and global mobility remain unrivaled.
