Who are the Conviction Buyers? There are three layers of demand in real estate: at the base is the need for living (utility), the middle is investment demand (asset property), and at the top is speculative demand (financial property). It starts with basic demand supporting liquidity and price stability, then expands into investment demand, and finally, speculative leverage accelerates the bull market. BTC has the same three layers: Conviction Buyers (CB) create the foundational consensus demand; First Buyers (FB) bring in fresh blood, absorbing excess supply; Momentum Buyers (MB) act as accelerators, sparking short-term FOMO. So, CBs set the floor for BTC price, FBs set the ceiling, and MBs drive price momentum. (see chart 1) For CBs, a price drop isn’t a risk—it’s just a chance to lower their average cost. On-chain data shows that when CB holdings increase, it usually means coins are flowing out of weak hands (emotional money) into strong hands (patient, long-term capital that doesn’t care about price swings). CBs have always stuck to a “the more it dips, the more I buy” strategy, so their accumulation can actually signal how deep or prolonged the current “bear” phase is. In simple terms: the more bearish it gets, the more they stack! This recent dip made most investors believe BTC is about to repeat the deep bear market of 2022. But right now, CB cumulative holdings have hit 2.34 million BTC—a new high this cycle. That’s higher than the previous local bottoms in September 2024 (2.17M BTC) and April 2025 (1.39M BTC), and matches the levels during the LUNA collapse in May 2022. Basically, CBs think the market is already “bearish enough” in terms of sentiment, behavior, and liquidity. That’s why we’ve seen them accelerating accumulation since November. But don’t get it twisted—CB buying doesn’t mean the trend will instantly reverse. It just helps set the bottom. In other words, if price keeps dipping, they’ll keep buying and cushioning the market. So maybe the “bear bottom” this cycle won’t be as low as everyone expects—it all depends on how much CBs are willing to step in. ------------------------------------------- Sponsored by @Bitget｜ Bitget VIP: Lower fees, crazier perks.